I didn't want to really delve into the Batista signing any further. I figured most of the people who read my blog knew it was a bad signing and there was nothing more that needed to be said about it. After reading this blog entry by Mike Kramer today, I knew I was wrong. And since the holidays are over, and the fever I've been running the last couple of days is now clearly under 100, and there's 4 inches of snow sitting on top of my car, and the snow-filled clouds are blocking out my satellite dish, why not?
The crux to Kramer's arguement of Batista's "greatness" is that he drives in runs. For example, in 2004 he drove in 110 RBIs. Which would have led the Twins handly led the Twins in 2005. The problem is, RBIs are a very situational stat. In 2004, Batista generally hit 3rd or 4th for the Montreal Expos, RIP. When Batista hit fourth, he had a healthy Jose Vidro hitting in front of him, getting on base at a 38% clip. He also generally had Brad Wilkerson in the lead-off spot spot, also getting on-base at a 38% clip.
The year before in Baltimore Batista had 99 RBIs with most of his at-bats came in the 6th spot. A lesser total, sure, but the players immediately in front of him were only getting on-base at a 35% clip. In Minnesota, he'll likely bat no better than 7th. And the players immediately in front of him in the line-up, Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter and Rondell White have a combined career OBP of about .330.
Yeah, Cuddyer only has driven in 45 and 42 runs the last two years. He also had 200-300 fewer at-bats than Batista had in his big seasons in both years and the handicap of hitting behind a bunch of OBP holes those two years. Any one expecting Tony Batista to do any better really doesn't get those facts.
But the scary fact about Batista that hasn't been said anywhere is that he only hit 26 homeruns in Japan last year. Which is all well and good, but Tadahito Iguchi not only played in Japan, but he played in the same Fukuoka park that Batisita played in for the better part of his career. In Iguchi's last three years in Fukuoka he hit 30, 18 and 27 homeruns. Last year in Chicago he hit 15. Reports from Batisita last year said he had gained weight and slowed down considerable both at the plate and in the field. There's no reason to believe Batista was a 30 homerun man last year. In a tough homerun park like the Metrodome for right handed hitters like the Metrodome, he might have been lucky to crack double-digits. And if Batista isn't hitting 30 homeruns for your team, he goes from a bad player to a horrific one real quick.
Friday, December 30, 2005
Monday, December 26, 2005
Transaction Analysis: Is this really the end?
December 20, 2005: The Twins non-tendered relief pitcher Grant Balfour.
December 22, 2005: The Twins sign Rondell White to a very weird contract that could be anything from $2.5 million for one year to $8.5 million for two years.
December 23, 2005: The Twins sign Dennys Reyes to a minor-league contract.
December 26, 2005: After coming down from a rum and porter induced coma, Jewscott says ugh.
Well, good, bad or ugly, it looks like the offseason of 2005 is over for the Twins. We won't offically know which one it was until August, but early signs point to bad.
Twins fans everywhere have already started drinking the Kool-Aid. Joe Christensen wrote this piece about how the Twins have improved. Even Aaron Gleeman called the Rondell White signing a move that had upside, violating my newest pet peeve.
Signing Rondell White isn't a bad move. But at the same time, calling it a move with upside is wishful thinking. The upside to White is if he stays healthy, the Twins have two Torii Hunters in the line-up. Not a bad thing. But then again, not the thing from which multiple pennants are won either. He might stay healthy as a DH. He may not. Either way, a smart GM would be looking to pad his hand, signing a Pickering or something to take at-bats in Triple-A just in case White proves to be fragile.
The bigger cause for concern in 2006 appears to be the bullpen. Over the past five seasons, the pen has been undeniably the teams major strength. In 2006, it's becoming more of a question mark. You can say what you want about how "poorly" J.C. Romero pitched the last couple of years. But at the same time, whether they replace him with Reyes or an internal option, Romero is twice the pitcher. The Twins said they wanted to bring back Balfour. But he's exactly the type of pitcher a smart GM will be trying to pick-up. That makes Jesse Crain's lack of strikeouts an even bigger issue, as if he suddenly does go Fiore next year, there's one less pitcher there to step-up for him.
The Christensen article is a good one, but it tries to apologize too much. Just because you can't sign Bill Mueller is no excuse to take a page from the Kansas City Royals School of Team Management. The Twins will be better than the Royals in 2006. When you have a pitcher going through a period equivilant of Koufax in the 60s like Johan Santana is, it's hard to finish in dead last. But the with the moves the team has made in December the team has clearly taken dead aim on 80 wins. And the only thing that can save them from that fate is a breakout by Mauer, Morneau or Cuddyer.
December 22, 2005: The Twins sign Rondell White to a very weird contract that could be anything from $2.5 million for one year to $8.5 million for two years.
December 23, 2005: The Twins sign Dennys Reyes to a minor-league contract.
December 26, 2005: After coming down from a rum and porter induced coma, Jewscott says ugh.
Well, good, bad or ugly, it looks like the offseason of 2005 is over for the Twins. We won't offically know which one it was until August, but early signs point to bad.
Twins fans everywhere have already started drinking the Kool-Aid. Joe Christensen wrote this piece about how the Twins have improved. Even Aaron Gleeman called the Rondell White signing a move that had upside, violating my newest pet peeve.
Signing Rondell White isn't a bad move. But at the same time, calling it a move with upside is wishful thinking. The upside to White is if he stays healthy, the Twins have two Torii Hunters in the line-up. Not a bad thing. But then again, not the thing from which multiple pennants are won either. He might stay healthy as a DH. He may not. Either way, a smart GM would be looking to pad his hand, signing a Pickering or something to take at-bats in Triple-A just in case White proves to be fragile.
The bigger cause for concern in 2006 appears to be the bullpen. Over the past five seasons, the pen has been undeniably the teams major strength. In 2006, it's becoming more of a question mark. You can say what you want about how "poorly" J.C. Romero pitched the last couple of years. But at the same time, whether they replace him with Reyes or an internal option, Romero is twice the pitcher. The Twins said they wanted to bring back Balfour. But he's exactly the type of pitcher a smart GM will be trying to pick-up. That makes Jesse Crain's lack of strikeouts an even bigger issue, as if he suddenly does go Fiore next year, there's one less pitcher there to step-up for him.
The Christensen article is a good one, but it tries to apologize too much. Just because you can't sign Bill Mueller is no excuse to take a page from the Kansas City Royals School of Team Management. The Twins will be better than the Royals in 2006. When you have a pitcher going through a period equivilant of Koufax in the 60s like Johan Santana is, it's hard to finish in dead last. But the with the moves the team has made in December the team has clearly taken dead aim on 80 wins. And the only thing that can save them from that fate is a breakout by Mauer, Morneau or Cuddyer.
Tuesday, December 20, 2005
My Newest Pet Peeve
Look around the wonderful word garden of the world wide web these days, and you'll see a phrase being thrown around by Twins fans everywhere. "Low-risk." To use it in a sentence, "The Twins made a low-risk move today signing Tony Batista to a one-year, $1.25 million contract.
So, given the site's mission statement, I suppose it's time to drop knowledge.
This is a Bean Burrito from Taco Bell-- cost about 89 cents. Sometimes a dime more. Sometimes a dime less.
This is a Bean Burrito from Chipolte. It'll cost you a little over five bucks. But it's made from fresher ingredients. The beans aren't from a can, and therefore aren't pumped up with sodium and preservatives. Which one of these two burritos is more likely to make you run to the bathroom in an hour or two?
This is a 2006 BMW 530i. If you're interested, it'll cost you about $52,000
If that's not your cup of tea though, here's a 1992 BMW 525i. It'll only cost you $3,995. But it has almost 150,000 miles on it. So which one is going to spend more time in the shop?
Risk often times has very little to do with cost. If you eat a cheap bean burrito from Taco Bell and it gives you the runs, or more to the point if you sign a cheap third baseman like Tony Batista and he doesn't give you any runs, it really doesn't matter how much you paid. Batitsta is really a very high-risk proposition for the Twins. He doesn't get on base. In fact, his low-OBP counters any good the Luis Castillo trade brings to the team. The scarier proposition is that from an offensive standpoint, he is a major step down from what Michael Cuddyer gave the team in 2005. And that's not taking into account that Cuddyer is a good breakout candidate.
At the same time, Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza are methaphorically speaking BMWs. The problem is that they're 1992 BMWs with 150,000 miles on them. And rust spots that are starting to show. And gunk in the engine block that's affecting acceleration. Sure, they still have that BMW cache attached to them. But their best days are behind them, and what's ahead for them are long days in the shop and not performing anywhere near the level they used to when they aren't.
The old adage "You get what you pay for" is very true. If you're not out there signing A-Rod or trading for Manny Ramirez, you're making a high-risk move. The risk being you might get stuck with very below-average production. Since the Twins aren't going to be making those safe signings this offseason, every move they make is risky.
With that said, the goal is to make high-risk, high reward moves when you're in this situation. Batista, Piazza and Thomas, like Bret Boone before them, are very high-risk, low-reward moves. And when you make too many high-risk, low-reward moves, mediocrity is right around the corner.
So, given the site's mission statement, I suppose it's time to drop knowledge.
This is a Bean Burrito from Taco Bell-- cost about 89 cents. Sometimes a dime more. Sometimes a dime less.
This is a Bean Burrito from Chipolte. It'll cost you a little over five bucks. But it's made from fresher ingredients. The beans aren't from a can, and therefore aren't pumped up with sodium and preservatives. Which one of these two burritos is more likely to make you run to the bathroom in an hour or two?
This is a 2006 BMW 530i. If you're interested, it'll cost you about $52,000
If that's not your cup of tea though, here's a 1992 BMW 525i. It'll only cost you $3,995. But it has almost 150,000 miles on it. So which one is going to spend more time in the shop?
Risk often times has very little to do with cost. If you eat a cheap bean burrito from Taco Bell and it gives you the runs, or more to the point if you sign a cheap third baseman like Tony Batista and he doesn't give you any runs, it really doesn't matter how much you paid. Batitsta is really a very high-risk proposition for the Twins. He doesn't get on base. In fact, his low-OBP counters any good the Luis Castillo trade brings to the team. The scarier proposition is that from an offensive standpoint, he is a major step down from what Michael Cuddyer gave the team in 2005. And that's not taking into account that Cuddyer is a good breakout candidate.
At the same time, Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza are methaphorically speaking BMWs. The problem is that they're 1992 BMWs with 150,000 miles on them. And rust spots that are starting to show. And gunk in the engine block that's affecting acceleration. Sure, they still have that BMW cache attached to them. But their best days are behind them, and what's ahead for them are long days in the shop and not performing anywhere near the level they used to when they aren't.
The old adage "You get what you pay for" is very true. If you're not out there signing A-Rod or trading for Manny Ramirez, you're making a high-risk move. The risk being you might get stuck with very below-average production. Since the Twins aren't going to be making those safe signings this offseason, every move they make is risky.
With that said, the goal is to make high-risk, high reward moves when you're in this situation. Batista, Piazza and Thomas, like Bret Boone before them, are very high-risk, low-reward moves. And when you make too many high-risk, low-reward moves, mediocrity is right around the corner.
Monday, December 19, 2005
Friday, December 16, 2005
The Jewscott Top 50
Here it is. Since none of you even attempted like a top 5 list, you have to kibbitz to figure out why.
1. Liriano, Francisco LHP, Rochester
2. Swarzak, Anthony RHP Ft Myers
3. Kubel, Jason RF DNP/IR
4. Baker, Scott RHP Rochester
5. Bonser, Boof RHP Rochester
6. Durbin, J.D. RHP, Rochester
7. Moses, Matt 3B New Britain
8. Plouffe, Trevor SS Beloit
9. Harben, Adam RHP Ft. Myers
10. Portes, Juan 2B Elizabethton
11. Garza, Matt RHP Beloit
12. Span, Denard CF New Britain
13. Perkins, Glen LHP New Britain
14. Jones, Justin LHP Ft Myers
15. Winfree, David 3B Beloit
16. Pridie, Jason CF Montgomery (Rule V)
17. Rainville, Jay RHP Ft Myers
18. Waldrop, Kyle RHP Beloit
19. Slowey, Kevin RHP Beloit
20. Deeds, Doug LF New Britain
21. Romero, Alex CF/RF New Britain
22. Smit, Alexander LHP Elizabethton
23. Casilla, Alexi 2B/SS Cedar Rapids (J.C. Romero trade)
24. Fox. Matt RHP DNP/IR
25. Edlich, Kyle, LHP GCL
26. Simonitsch, Errol, LHP New Britain
27. Gassner, Dave LHP Rochester
28. Woodard, Johnny 1B Beloit
29. Sanchez, Henry 1B, GCL
30. Mullins, Ryan LHP Elizabethton
31. Morlan, Eduardo, RHP Elizabethton
32. Kelly, Paul SS GCL/Beloit
33. Tiffee, Terry 3B Rochester
34. Thompson, Drew 2B GCL/Ft Myers
35. Bowen, Rob C Rochester
36. Burns, Deacon LF Beloit
37. Ovalle, Edward CF Elizabethton
38. Garcia, Angel RHP Beloit
39. Mijares, Jose LHP Ft. Myers
40. Miller, Jason LHP Rochester
41. Pino, Yohan RHP Elizabethon
42. Duensing, Brian LHP Elizabethton
43. Neshek, Pat RHP New Britain
44. Santiesbian, Danny CF, GCL
45. Crawford, Tristan RHP Ft Myers
46. Aselton, Kyle LHP Beloit
47. Barrett, Ricky LHP, Rochester
48. Matiezeno, Danny 1B New Britain
49. Maza, Luis 2B, Rochester
50. Kirwin, Brian RHP DNP/Just Signed
1. Liriano, Francisco LHP, Rochester
2. Swarzak, Anthony RHP Ft Myers
3. Kubel, Jason RF DNP/IR
4. Baker, Scott RHP Rochester
5. Bonser, Boof RHP Rochester
6. Durbin, J.D. RHP, Rochester
7. Moses, Matt 3B New Britain
8. Plouffe, Trevor SS Beloit
9. Harben, Adam RHP Ft. Myers
10. Portes, Juan 2B Elizabethton
11. Garza, Matt RHP Beloit
12. Span, Denard CF New Britain
13. Perkins, Glen LHP New Britain
14. Jones, Justin LHP Ft Myers
15. Winfree, David 3B Beloit
16. Pridie, Jason CF Montgomery (Rule V)
17. Rainville, Jay RHP Ft Myers
18. Waldrop, Kyle RHP Beloit
19. Slowey, Kevin RHP Beloit
20. Deeds, Doug LF New Britain
21. Romero, Alex CF/RF New Britain
22. Smit, Alexander LHP Elizabethton
23. Casilla, Alexi 2B/SS Cedar Rapids (J.C. Romero trade)
24. Fox. Matt RHP DNP/IR
25. Edlich, Kyle, LHP GCL
26. Simonitsch, Errol, LHP New Britain
27. Gassner, Dave LHP Rochester
28. Woodard, Johnny 1B Beloit
29. Sanchez, Henry 1B, GCL
30. Mullins, Ryan LHP Elizabethton
31. Morlan, Eduardo, RHP Elizabethton
32. Kelly, Paul SS GCL/Beloit
33. Tiffee, Terry 3B Rochester
34. Thompson, Drew 2B GCL/Ft Myers
35. Bowen, Rob C Rochester
36. Burns, Deacon LF Beloit
37. Ovalle, Edward CF Elizabethton
38. Garcia, Angel RHP Beloit
39. Mijares, Jose LHP Ft. Myers
40. Miller, Jason LHP Rochester
41. Pino, Yohan RHP Elizabethon
42. Duensing, Brian LHP Elizabethton
43. Neshek, Pat RHP New Britain
44. Santiesbian, Danny CF, GCL
45. Crawford, Tristan RHP Ft Myers
46. Aselton, Kyle LHP Beloit
47. Barrett, Ricky LHP, Rochester
48. Matiezeno, Danny 1B New Britain
49. Maza, Luis 2B, Rochester
50. Kirwin, Brian RHP DNP/Just Signed
Transaction Analysis: Tony Batisita? Say wha'?
Transcation Analysis: The Twins sign Tony Batista to a one-year, $1.25 million contract.
Sorry about the delay in this. When I started this blog, I knew immediately the fatal problem with it was going to be that my career, significant others, etc were going to take precedence over it. And unfortuantely I have the kind of career that has me boarding a flight to Denver (or wherever really) at least once a month. I digress, but there really good ammunition left to condemn this move. The OBP hole I talked about at shortstop simple switches to third base if Batista is in the line-up. And on those nights when Batista and Castro are in the line-up on the same night, the chance of the Twins being perfectoed goes through the roof.
All that's left is to turn this bad signing into something fun-- The Tony Batista Death Pool. What day do you think Ryan finally sobers up and realizes Batista isn't a major league third baseman?
Sorry about the delay in this. When I started this blog, I knew immediately the fatal problem with it was going to be that my career, significant others, etc were going to take precedence over it. And unfortuantely I have the kind of career that has me boarding a flight to Denver (or wherever really) at least once a month. I digress, but there really good ammunition left to condemn this move. The OBP hole I talked about at shortstop simple switches to third base if Batista is in the line-up. And on those nights when Batista and Castro are in the line-up on the same night, the chance of the Twins being perfectoed goes through the roof.
All that's left is to turn this bad signing into something fun-- The Tony Batista Death Pool. What day do you think Ryan finally sobers up and realizes Batista isn't a major league third baseman?
Wednesday, December 14, 2005
Dot Dot Dot
• We (well, me and the inner voices) at Jewscott's Head wish to congratulate Tom Powers on the first great article about what the Twins need to do this offseason.
• Jason Hart: Right concept, wrong target.
• Hank Blalock is now the only feasible way for the Twins to actually improve third base left. Yet that hasn't stopped the flow of anti-Cuddyer at third news.
• Not that I put one iota of credit in what Charley Walters says, I tend to believe him when he says Texas doesn't want Kyle Lohse.
As an aside, for some reason the thought of Walters and Sid Hartman side-by-side at a piano singing "Those Were the Days" amuses me to no end?
• Coke Blak or Crystal Pepsi?
• Jason Hart: Right concept, wrong target.
• Hank Blalock is now the only feasible way for the Twins to actually improve third base left. Yet that hasn't stopped the flow of anti-Cuddyer at third news.
• Not that I put one iota of credit in what Charley Walters says, I tend to believe him when he says Texas doesn't want Kyle Lohse.
As an aside, for some reason the thought of Walters and Sid Hartman side-by-side at a piano singing "Those Were the Days" amuses me to no end?
• Coke Blak or Crystal Pepsi?
Organization Report: Shortstops
Key
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
The Players
Jason Bartlett
DOB—10-30-1979 AGE: 26
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Trade with San Diego, 2002
Career Stats
Juan Castro
DOB—6-20-1972 AGE: 33
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Free Agent, 2004
Career Stats
Augie Ojeda
DOB—12-20-1974 AGE: 30
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 2003
Career Stats
J.R. Taylor
DOB—11-06-1982 AGE: 23
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 24th Round, 2000
Career Stats A
Career Stats B
Gil Velazquez
DOB—10-17-1979 AGE: 26
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Matt Tolbert
DOB—5-4-1982 AGE: 23
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 16th Round, 2004
Career Stats
Angelo Fermin
DOB—11-16-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2000
Career Stats
Trevor Plouffe
DOB—6-15-1986 AGE: 19
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round, 2004
Career Stats
Stephen Tolleson
DOB—11-1-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 5th Round, 2005
Career Stats
Toby Gardenhire
DOB—9-11-1982 AGE: 23
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 42nd Round, 2005
Career Stats
Paul Kelly
DOB—11-19-1986 AGE: 19
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 2nd Round, 2005
Career Stats
Will Luque
DOB—4-24-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2003
Career Stats
The Skinny
On Friday, I posted an article entitled SAT. The joke to it of course was that there were no real wrong answers to it, outside of maybe comparing Gardenhire’s managing style to the genius that was William Faulkner. I left out one question, though. Simply because there was really only one way to answer it. And that was “Teeth: Austin Powers as Shortstops: Minnesota Twins.” You could use the word ugly to describe both of them, historically. But then again, is that really descriptive enough? We’re talking about things that have taken ugliness to a whole new comedic level.
And the remarkable part about the Twins’ ugliness at shortstop is the consistency. Coming into the 2005 season, a twenty-year old Twins fan had known more presidents than starting shortstops. During those twenty years of “stability,” the team was the proud recipient of 11 sub-.300 OBP seasons (5 by Greg Gagne, 3 each by Pat Meares and Cristian Guzman). Go back three more years and you get two more shortstops, and three more sub-.300 OBP seasons—including Houston Jimenez’s bid for immortality in 1984 by having one of the worst seasons a shortstop could have.
Enter Jason Bartlett. After two years of putting up decent numbers in the high minors, Bartlett was posed to take over the Twins’ starting shortstop job. Given Bartlett’s OBPs in the minors during those two seasons were .380 and .417, the Twins seemed to be a little nervous. During Spring Training in fact, the Twins seemed pretty adamant that Bartlett would start the year in Rochester and Juan Castro would be the shortstop. That all went out the window when Bartlett had a big spring. But only momentarily. On May 19th, Bartlett was hitting only .242, albeit with a .310 on-base percentage. But by that point the die was cast. The Twins sent Bartlett back to Rochester, and Castro was in at shortstop. It was the turning point for the Twins’ season. And not a turning point in a good way.
The move from Bartlett to Castro and his .279 on-base percentage was a serious regression back to the Guzman/Meares/Gagne days. It created a major sinkhole in the bottom of the line-up. The end result was the team added another sub-.300 OBP from their shortstop, with Castro’s .269 OBP canceling out Bartlett’s .315 OBP at the position. In many ways it was the start of the end for the Twins in 2005. It didn’t completely KO the team. The injuries that derailed Shannon Stewart and Justin Morneau were probably more responsible for the total collapse of the team’s offense. But Castro certainly didn’t help matters.
Ron Gardenhire (careeer OBP, .277) has a love affair for middle infielders who play the game the way Ron Gardenhire did. And it’s killing this team. The move to Castro didn’t have to be made. The team claimed the reason was defense. But at the same point by most defensive metrics Bartlett rated at the low-end respectable and at the high-end gold-glove worthy. Like most of the Twins complaints about there defense last year, there’s a certain measure of crying wolf to it. You don’t put up a 3.71 ERA with four starting pitchers who depend on their defense almost exclusively for outs unless you field the ball well. But that’s starting to get off-topic.
The next era in Twins shortstops is the Jason Bartlett era. And it has the potential to be the Twins’ most successful run at the position since the team traded Roy Smalley to the Yankees in a Marlins-like purge. Bartlett fields the ball pretty well. He runs pretty well. He gets on base. And while he’ll never be confused with A-Rod or Tejada, he has a little bit of pop to him. He won’t be the most important piece to a winning team, but he has a chance of being the piece that Jay Bell was to those early-90s Pirates team. You over look him a bit, but he does a nice job of getting on-base for the Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonillas of the world. At the same time, if the Twins’ shortstop is any one other than Bartlett for a long stretch of time next year, it teeters on disaster.
Since last week contained December, 8th—the day of John Lennon’s murder—a good Beatles reference makes some sense here. Stuart Sutcliffe was the Beatle’s original bass player, and a good portion of what the Beatles were is owed to him. He coined the phrase “The Beatles.” Was the first to wear what became the traditional Beatle’s haircut. And was the one Beatle that John Lennon looked up to. But he couldn’t play bass worth a lick. In the movie Backbeat, Gary Bakewell while playing Paul McCartney gave his reason for wanting to sack Sutcliffe by simply saying “We aren’t that good.” Juan Castro is the Twins’ Stuart Sutcliffe. Yes, he fits the team’s defense first aesthetic to a tee. He was legitimately great at defense for the team last year. But he can’t hit. And the team just isn’t good enough offensively to carry a shortstop that can’t hit. In fact, it’s debatable whether the team can carry two utility infielders who can’t hut in Castro and Nick Punto.
The players the Twins have in the high minors also make it of maximum importance that Bartlett stays healthy and starting. Augie Ojeda is a fine defender, and one of the few professional athletes who make my 5’10” frame look tall. But he’s more Punto than Bartlett offensively, and at 30 he’s not likely to improve much. Should anything happen to one of the Twins current utility infielders, Ojeda would be able to step in without the team missing a beat, though.
The Twins signed Gil Velazquez after the Mets organization released him. He did a decent job filling in for a New Britain team that lacked a shortstop for the most part. The Twins resigned him as a minor league free agent, but he’ll probably serve as the utility infielder in New Britain or Rochester next year.
J.R. Taylor, formerly Sam Taylor, is probably the shortstop prospect in the high minors with the best chance of being a starting shortstop one day. Albeit that chance is slim. A graduate of Enicnal High School in Alameda, CA—the same school that produced Jimmy Rollins—Taylor is a good athlete. But that athleticism hasn’t translated to hitting. He’s still young enough to fix that. But then again, so are lots of people.
Matt Tolbert was more interesting last year because he slid across the defensive spectrum the other way, going from second base to shortstop. He may shift back across again, in which case the his career will be based on the ability to split the difference between how well he hit in Elizabethton in 2004 and how not-so-well he hit in Ft. Myers in 2005.
Angelo Fermin was supposedly a big signing coup for the Twins in the Dominican back in 2000. He hasn’t really developed as expected. But he’s still fairly young and really fast. Right now, though, his high ceiling looks almost Punto-esq.
It’s interesting how often the youngest brother in a baseball family often becomes the most talented. Neither Jake nor Billy Mauer could hold a candle to Joe. Mitchell Moses is still at James Madison Meanwhile, Marshall Plouffe may well be the Twins nepotism pick in next year’s draft. His younger brother Trevor, on the other hand, had an up and down year. Hitting .223 doesn’t make for good season. But at the same time, there was a point in time when his batting average was under .100 and at the end of May Plouffe clocked in at only.168. The plus side, Plouffe did manage 50 walks and 13 homeruns. How well he plays in a pitcher’s park in Ft. Myers next year will be more telling about him.
Plouffe was the Midwest League’s number 12 ranked prospect according to Baseball America. Paul Kelly was the Gulf Coast League’s 12th ranked prospect. The high end comparison of Kelly to Nomar Garciaparra seems a bit odd, especially since the same article went on to say that fellow 2005 draftee Drew Thompson had better actions at the plate and more offensive upside. If it’s hard to say what Plouffe’s upside is at this point, it’s damn near impossible to say with Kelly at this point. All you can say is that he’s really fast and has a really good arm right now. You hope he can hit, but you won’t know for sure until he spends a year in full-season ball. To put the fear of god into Kelly supporters, I’ll point out he’s not the prospect Luis Rivas was when he was 18.
Stephen Tolleson was the last of the high picks the Twins used on middle infielders last year. His dad Wayne was a sweet fielding shortstop/no-hit for the Rangers and Yankees back in the 80s. Stephen should hit a little more than his pops, but since he doesn’t really have the arm for shortstop he’ll have to. The move he made to second base in deference to Plouffe at Beloit may well be permanent. But the J.C.Romero for Alexi Casilla trade looks like it may keep him in Beloit to start the year and in that situation. And provided the Twins don’t skip Drew Thompson and Paul Kelly a level, Beloit is going to need a shortstop. Tolleson has some speed and a decent idea at the plate. See a recurring theme among Twins middle infield prospects?
Since I mentioned him, I suppose this is as good of place as any to discuss Alexi Casilla. I think he’s a second baseman. He plays pretty good defense, has a good arm, pretty much no power, and steals a lot of bases. The question is will he continue to hit for average as he goes up the ladder. If he does, he’s the next Luis Castillo. If he doesn’t, he’s the next Nick Punto. The point? For your average speedy middle infielder the Twins are likely to be targeting, the line between success and failure is about as thick as Kate Moss’ waist.
After drafting Toby Gardenhire for what, 22 straight years, it was nice to finally sign him. Granted, it would have been nice to get better numbers out of him once he finally signed. While we may bag on Ron Gardenhire’s intellectual capabilities from time to time, he does make smart moves from time to time. Having his son use baseball to get a college degree was a very smart move. He’ll likely need it in a couple of years.
Will Luque had a big year in the GCL, but he turns 22 before the next short-season league starts and if the team doesn’t push him to Beloit next year, you have to knock him down a level.
Just to not end the column on Will Luque, the Twins did make a big splash in signing 16-year old Australian James Beresford with a bonus that was on par with “4th or 5th round money.” To read the words of Australians in the know, Bereseford is the best position prospect to be signed out of Australia since, well, Glenn Williams. They even gave him permission to stay in Victoria for another year to finish his schooling, meaning the soonest we’ll be hearing his name again is 2007. Beresford already stands 6’3”, His older brother, a pitcher in the Brewers organization, is 6’6” Bereseford could have been a catcher, or a pitcher. But the Twins want him to try his hand at shortstop. He probably won’t last there. But it’s interesting to see the Twins making a move towards bigger shortstops again. There really hasn’t been one since Cuddyer failed at the position back in 1998.
Jewscott rates the prospects
1. Trevor Plouffe
2. Paul Kelly
3. Alexi Casilla
4. Angelo Fermin
5. J.R. Taylor
Questions for Review
1. It's the year 2011. You're put in charge of naming a Twins' 50th Anniversary All-Star team. Who is your shortstop on it?
2. Will the Twins get a .300 on-base percentage from their shortstop in 2006?
3. Did the Twins make the right call in sending Jason Bartlett down for more seasoning in 2005?
4. Can Juan Castro and Nick Punto co-exist as utility infielders for the team in 2006?
5. What is Jason Bartlett's upside?
6. The comparison most given for Trevor Plouffe is Greg Gagne. Right or wrong?
7. How do you rank the shortstop prospects in the Twins system?
8. On a scale from 1-10, rate the Twins depth at this position.
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
The Players
Jason Bartlett
DOB—10-30-1979 AGE: 26
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Trade with San Diego, 2002
Career Stats
Juan Castro
DOB—6-20-1972 AGE: 33
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Free Agent, 2004
Career Stats
Augie Ojeda
DOB—12-20-1974 AGE: 30
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 2003
Career Stats
J.R. Taylor
DOB—11-06-1982 AGE: 23
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 24th Round, 2000
Career Stats A
Career Stats B
Gil Velazquez
DOB—10-17-1979 AGE: 26
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Matt Tolbert
DOB—5-4-1982 AGE: 23
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 16th Round, 2004
Career Stats
Angelo Fermin
DOB—11-16-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2000
Career Stats
Trevor Plouffe
DOB—6-15-1986 AGE: 19
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round, 2004
Career Stats
Stephen Tolleson
DOB—11-1-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 5th Round, 2005
Career Stats
Toby Gardenhire
DOB—9-11-1982 AGE: 23
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 42nd Round, 2005
Career Stats
Paul Kelly
DOB—11-19-1986 AGE: 19
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 2nd Round, 2005
Career Stats
Will Luque
DOB—4-24-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2003
Career Stats
The Skinny
On Friday, I posted an article entitled SAT. The joke to it of course was that there were no real wrong answers to it, outside of maybe comparing Gardenhire’s managing style to the genius that was William Faulkner. I left out one question, though. Simply because there was really only one way to answer it. And that was “Teeth: Austin Powers as Shortstops: Minnesota Twins.” You could use the word ugly to describe both of them, historically. But then again, is that really descriptive enough? We’re talking about things that have taken ugliness to a whole new comedic level.
And the remarkable part about the Twins’ ugliness at shortstop is the consistency. Coming into the 2005 season, a twenty-year old Twins fan had known more presidents than starting shortstops. During those twenty years of “stability,” the team was the proud recipient of 11 sub-.300 OBP seasons (5 by Greg Gagne, 3 each by Pat Meares and Cristian Guzman). Go back three more years and you get two more shortstops, and three more sub-.300 OBP seasons—including Houston Jimenez’s bid for immortality in 1984 by having one of the worst seasons a shortstop could have.
Enter Jason Bartlett. After two years of putting up decent numbers in the high minors, Bartlett was posed to take over the Twins’ starting shortstop job. Given Bartlett’s OBPs in the minors during those two seasons were .380 and .417, the Twins seemed to be a little nervous. During Spring Training in fact, the Twins seemed pretty adamant that Bartlett would start the year in Rochester and Juan Castro would be the shortstop. That all went out the window when Bartlett had a big spring. But only momentarily. On May 19th, Bartlett was hitting only .242, albeit with a .310 on-base percentage. But by that point the die was cast. The Twins sent Bartlett back to Rochester, and Castro was in at shortstop. It was the turning point for the Twins’ season. And not a turning point in a good way.
The move from Bartlett to Castro and his .279 on-base percentage was a serious regression back to the Guzman/Meares/Gagne days. It created a major sinkhole in the bottom of the line-up. The end result was the team added another sub-.300 OBP from their shortstop, with Castro’s .269 OBP canceling out Bartlett’s .315 OBP at the position. In many ways it was the start of the end for the Twins in 2005. It didn’t completely KO the team. The injuries that derailed Shannon Stewart and Justin Morneau were probably more responsible for the total collapse of the team’s offense. But Castro certainly didn’t help matters.
Ron Gardenhire (careeer OBP, .277) has a love affair for middle infielders who play the game the way Ron Gardenhire did. And it’s killing this team. The move to Castro didn’t have to be made. The team claimed the reason was defense. But at the same point by most defensive metrics Bartlett rated at the low-end respectable and at the high-end gold-glove worthy. Like most of the Twins complaints about there defense last year, there’s a certain measure of crying wolf to it. You don’t put up a 3.71 ERA with four starting pitchers who depend on their defense almost exclusively for outs unless you field the ball well. But that’s starting to get off-topic.
The next era in Twins shortstops is the Jason Bartlett era. And it has the potential to be the Twins’ most successful run at the position since the team traded Roy Smalley to the Yankees in a Marlins-like purge. Bartlett fields the ball pretty well. He runs pretty well. He gets on base. And while he’ll never be confused with A-Rod or Tejada, he has a little bit of pop to him. He won’t be the most important piece to a winning team, but he has a chance of being the piece that Jay Bell was to those early-90s Pirates team. You over look him a bit, but he does a nice job of getting on-base for the Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonillas of the world. At the same time, if the Twins’ shortstop is any one other than Bartlett for a long stretch of time next year, it teeters on disaster.
Since last week contained December, 8th—the day of John Lennon’s murder—a good Beatles reference makes some sense here. Stuart Sutcliffe was the Beatle’s original bass player, and a good portion of what the Beatles were is owed to him. He coined the phrase “The Beatles.” Was the first to wear what became the traditional Beatle’s haircut. And was the one Beatle that John Lennon looked up to. But he couldn’t play bass worth a lick. In the movie Backbeat, Gary Bakewell while playing Paul McCartney gave his reason for wanting to sack Sutcliffe by simply saying “We aren’t that good.” Juan Castro is the Twins’ Stuart Sutcliffe. Yes, he fits the team’s defense first aesthetic to a tee. He was legitimately great at defense for the team last year. But he can’t hit. And the team just isn’t good enough offensively to carry a shortstop that can’t hit. In fact, it’s debatable whether the team can carry two utility infielders who can’t hut in Castro and Nick Punto.
The players the Twins have in the high minors also make it of maximum importance that Bartlett stays healthy and starting. Augie Ojeda is a fine defender, and one of the few professional athletes who make my 5’10” frame look tall. But he’s more Punto than Bartlett offensively, and at 30 he’s not likely to improve much. Should anything happen to one of the Twins current utility infielders, Ojeda would be able to step in without the team missing a beat, though.
The Twins signed Gil Velazquez after the Mets organization released him. He did a decent job filling in for a New Britain team that lacked a shortstop for the most part. The Twins resigned him as a minor league free agent, but he’ll probably serve as the utility infielder in New Britain or Rochester next year.
J.R. Taylor, formerly Sam Taylor, is probably the shortstop prospect in the high minors with the best chance of being a starting shortstop one day. Albeit that chance is slim. A graduate of Enicnal High School in Alameda, CA—the same school that produced Jimmy Rollins—Taylor is a good athlete. But that athleticism hasn’t translated to hitting. He’s still young enough to fix that. But then again, so are lots of people.
Matt Tolbert was more interesting last year because he slid across the defensive spectrum the other way, going from second base to shortstop. He may shift back across again, in which case the his career will be based on the ability to split the difference between how well he hit in Elizabethton in 2004 and how not-so-well he hit in Ft. Myers in 2005.
Angelo Fermin was supposedly a big signing coup for the Twins in the Dominican back in 2000. He hasn’t really developed as expected. But he’s still fairly young and really fast. Right now, though, his high ceiling looks almost Punto-esq.
It’s interesting how often the youngest brother in a baseball family often becomes the most talented. Neither Jake nor Billy Mauer could hold a candle to Joe. Mitchell Moses is still at James Madison Meanwhile, Marshall Plouffe may well be the Twins nepotism pick in next year’s draft. His younger brother Trevor, on the other hand, had an up and down year. Hitting .223 doesn’t make for good season. But at the same time, there was a point in time when his batting average was under .100 and at the end of May Plouffe clocked in at only.168. The plus side, Plouffe did manage 50 walks and 13 homeruns. How well he plays in a pitcher’s park in Ft. Myers next year will be more telling about him.
Plouffe was the Midwest League’s number 12 ranked prospect according to Baseball America. Paul Kelly was the Gulf Coast League’s 12th ranked prospect. The high end comparison of Kelly to Nomar Garciaparra seems a bit odd, especially since the same article went on to say that fellow 2005 draftee Drew Thompson had better actions at the plate and more offensive upside. If it’s hard to say what Plouffe’s upside is at this point, it’s damn near impossible to say with Kelly at this point. All you can say is that he’s really fast and has a really good arm right now. You hope he can hit, but you won’t know for sure until he spends a year in full-season ball. To put the fear of god into Kelly supporters, I’ll point out he’s not the prospect Luis Rivas was when he was 18.
Stephen Tolleson was the last of the high picks the Twins used on middle infielders last year. His dad Wayne was a sweet fielding shortstop/no-hit for the Rangers and Yankees back in the 80s. Stephen should hit a little more than his pops, but since he doesn’t really have the arm for shortstop he’ll have to. The move he made to second base in deference to Plouffe at Beloit may well be permanent. But the J.C.Romero for Alexi Casilla trade looks like it may keep him in Beloit to start the year and in that situation. And provided the Twins don’t skip Drew Thompson and Paul Kelly a level, Beloit is going to need a shortstop. Tolleson has some speed and a decent idea at the plate. See a recurring theme among Twins middle infield prospects?
Since I mentioned him, I suppose this is as good of place as any to discuss Alexi Casilla. I think he’s a second baseman. He plays pretty good defense, has a good arm, pretty much no power, and steals a lot of bases. The question is will he continue to hit for average as he goes up the ladder. If he does, he’s the next Luis Castillo. If he doesn’t, he’s the next Nick Punto. The point? For your average speedy middle infielder the Twins are likely to be targeting, the line between success and failure is about as thick as Kate Moss’ waist.
After drafting Toby Gardenhire for what, 22 straight years, it was nice to finally sign him. Granted, it would have been nice to get better numbers out of him once he finally signed. While we may bag on Ron Gardenhire’s intellectual capabilities from time to time, he does make smart moves from time to time. Having his son use baseball to get a college degree was a very smart move. He’ll likely need it in a couple of years.
Will Luque had a big year in the GCL, but he turns 22 before the next short-season league starts and if the team doesn’t push him to Beloit next year, you have to knock him down a level.
Just to not end the column on Will Luque, the Twins did make a big splash in signing 16-year old Australian James Beresford with a bonus that was on par with “4th or 5th round money.” To read the words of Australians in the know, Bereseford is the best position prospect to be signed out of Australia since, well, Glenn Williams. They even gave him permission to stay in Victoria for another year to finish his schooling, meaning the soonest we’ll be hearing his name again is 2007. Beresford already stands 6’3”, His older brother, a pitcher in the Brewers organization, is 6’6” Bereseford could have been a catcher, or a pitcher. But the Twins want him to try his hand at shortstop. He probably won’t last there. But it’s interesting to see the Twins making a move towards bigger shortstops again. There really hasn’t been one since Cuddyer failed at the position back in 1998.
Jewscott rates the prospects
1. Trevor Plouffe
2. Paul Kelly
3. Alexi Casilla
4. Angelo Fermin
5. J.R. Taylor
Questions for Review
1. It's the year 2011. You're put in charge of naming a Twins' 50th Anniversary All-Star team. Who is your shortstop on it?
2. Will the Twins get a .300 on-base percentage from their shortstop in 2006?
3. Did the Twins make the right call in sending Jason Bartlett down for more seasoning in 2005?
4. Can Juan Castro and Nick Punto co-exist as utility infielders for the team in 2006?
5. What is Jason Bartlett's upside?
6. The comparison most given for Trevor Plouffe is Greg Gagne. Right or wrong?
7. How do you rank the shortstop prospects in the Twins system?
8. On a scale from 1-10, rate the Twins depth at this position.
Tuesday, December 13, 2005
Top 50 Prospects: You Be the Judge
(ed note. This has changed some in 30 minutes)
I hold in my hand a list of 57 Twins prospects. Since I'm not Joe McCarthy, here it is.
Aselton, Kyle LHP Beloit
Baker, Scott RHP Rochester
Barrett, Ricky LHP, Rochester
Bonser, Boof RHP Rochester
Bowen, Rob C Rochester
Burns, Deacon LF Beloit
Casilla, Alexi 2B/SS Cedar Rapids (J.C. Romero trade)
Crawford, Tristan RHP Ft Myers
Deeds, Doug LF New Britain
Duensing, Brian LHP Elizabethton
Durbin, J.D. RHP, Rochester
Edlich, Kyle, LHP GCL
Fox. Matt RHP DNP/IR
Garcia, Angel RHP Beloit
Gassner, Dave LHP Rochester
Garza, Matt RHP Beloit
Harben, Adam RHP Ft. Myers
Hawes, Adam RHP Elizabethton
Hereseford, James SS DNP/Just Signed
Jones, Justin LHP Ft Myers
Kelly, Paul SS GCL/Beloit
Kirwin, Brian RHP DNP/Just Signed
Kubel, Jason RF DNP/IR
Liriano, Francisco LHP, Rochester
Mata, Frank RHP DNP/IR
Matiezeno, Danny 1B New Britain
Maza, Luis 2B, Rochester
Mijares, Jose LHP Ft. Myers
Miller, Jason LHP Rochester
Morlan, Eduardo, RHP Elizabethton
Moses, Matt 3B New Britain
Mullins, Ryan LHP Elizabethton
Neshek, Pat RHP New Britain
Ovalle, Edward CF Elizabethton
Perkins, Glen LHP New Britain
Pino, Yohan RHP Elizabethon
Plouffe, Trevor SS Beloit
Portes, Juan 2B Elizabethton
Powers, Danny RHP Elizabethton
Pridie, Jason CF Montgomery (Rule V Pick)
Rainville, Jay RHP Ft Myers
Romero, Alex CF/RF New Britain
Sanchez, Henry 1B, GCL
Santiesbian, Danny CF, GCL
Schoenbachler, Jeff LHP GCL
SHINSKIE! Dave RHP Beloit
Shutt, Chris RHP Ft Myers
Simonitsch, Errol, LHP New Britain
Slowey, Kevin RHP Beloit
Smit, Alexander LHP Elizabethton
Span, Denard CF New Britain
Swarzak, Anthony RHP Ft Myers
Tiffee, Terry 3B Rochester
Thompson, Drew 2B GCL/Ft Myers
Waldrop, Kyle RHP Beloit
Winfree, David 3B Beloit
Woodard, Johnny 1B Beloit
Your mission. Rank these prospects. Do as much or as little as you want. I'll post my top-50, which will include 50 names from this list, at the end of the week.
I hold in my hand a list of 57 Twins prospects. Since I'm not Joe McCarthy, here it is.
Aselton, Kyle LHP Beloit
Baker, Scott RHP Rochester
Barrett, Ricky LHP, Rochester
Bonser, Boof RHP Rochester
Bowen, Rob C Rochester
Burns, Deacon LF Beloit
Casilla, Alexi 2B/SS Cedar Rapids (J.C. Romero trade)
Crawford, Tristan RHP Ft Myers
Deeds, Doug LF New Britain
Duensing, Brian LHP Elizabethton
Durbin, J.D. RHP, Rochester
Edlich, Kyle, LHP GCL
Fox. Matt RHP DNP/IR
Garcia, Angel RHP Beloit
Gassner, Dave LHP Rochester
Garza, Matt RHP Beloit
Harben, Adam RHP Ft. Myers
Hawes, Adam RHP Elizabethton
Hereseford, James SS DNP/Just Signed
Jones, Justin LHP Ft Myers
Kelly, Paul SS GCL/Beloit
Kirwin, Brian RHP DNP/Just Signed
Kubel, Jason RF DNP/IR
Liriano, Francisco LHP, Rochester
Mata, Frank RHP DNP/IR
Matiezeno, Danny 1B New Britain
Maza, Luis 2B, Rochester
Mijares, Jose LHP Ft. Myers
Miller, Jason LHP Rochester
Morlan, Eduardo, RHP Elizabethton
Moses, Matt 3B New Britain
Mullins, Ryan LHP Elizabethton
Neshek, Pat RHP New Britain
Ovalle, Edward CF Elizabethton
Perkins, Glen LHP New Britain
Pino, Yohan RHP Elizabethon
Plouffe, Trevor SS Beloit
Portes, Juan 2B Elizabethton
Powers, Danny RHP Elizabethton
Pridie, Jason CF Montgomery (Rule V Pick)
Rainville, Jay RHP Ft Myers
Romero, Alex CF/RF New Britain
Sanchez, Henry 1B, GCL
Santiesbian, Danny CF, GCL
Schoenbachler, Jeff LHP GCL
SHINSKIE! Dave RHP Beloit
Shutt, Chris RHP Ft Myers
Simonitsch, Errol, LHP New Britain
Slowey, Kevin RHP Beloit
Smit, Alexander LHP Elizabethton
Span, Denard CF New Britain
Swarzak, Anthony RHP Ft Myers
Tiffee, Terry 3B Rochester
Thompson, Drew 2B GCL/Ft Myers
Waldrop, Kyle RHP Beloit
Winfree, David 3B Beloit
Woodard, Johnny 1B Beloit
Your mission. Rank these prospects. Do as much or as little as you want. I'll post my top-50, which will include 50 names from this list, at the end of the week.
Monday, December 12, 2005
Friday, December 09, 2005
Transaction Analysis: J.C. Romero's Last Stand
12/09/05: The Twins trade LHP J.C. Romero to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for minor league INF Alexi Casilla.
Well, I suppose there goes Terry Ryan's dream of shipping off Kyle Lohse and J.C. Romero to Baltimore for Miguel Tejada. In the end, Ryan had to cut bait and admit what Romero's actual trade value was. He could've gotten a Mackowiak of his own, like the White Sox did for their own verison of Romero last night. But instead, he settled for a prospect and the spin of the roulette wheel that Casilla might take his great speed and slapping hitting ability and turn into the next Luis Castillo, instead of the next Cleatus Davidson.
This wasn't a trade about getting something back though. The Twins wanted Romero and the $2.2 million they owed him in 2006 gone, and will probably put the money saved towards a nice little third baseman or DH.
The sound of champagne bottles being uncorked in the background as this trade was announced probably came from Dave Gassner, Jason Miller and Rickey Barrett in the background. Now one of them will likely get the chance to earn his LOOGY union card next year. And earn enough money over the course of the next 20 or so years to buy that small island in the South Pacific he's always wanted, instead of spending next year clipping coupons from the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle.
Well, I suppose there goes Terry Ryan's dream of shipping off Kyle Lohse and J.C. Romero to Baltimore for Miguel Tejada. In the end, Ryan had to cut bait and admit what Romero's actual trade value was. He could've gotten a Mackowiak of his own, like the White Sox did for their own verison of Romero last night. But instead, he settled for a prospect and the spin of the roulette wheel that Casilla might take his great speed and slapping hitting ability and turn into the next Luis Castillo, instead of the next Cleatus Davidson.
This wasn't a trade about getting something back though. The Twins wanted Romero and the $2.2 million they owed him in 2006 gone, and will probably put the money saved towards a nice little third baseman or DH.
The sound of champagne bottles being uncorked in the background as this trade was announced probably came from Dave Gassner, Jason Miller and Rickey Barrett in the background. Now one of them will likely get the chance to earn his LOOGY union card next year. And earn enough money over the course of the next 20 or so years to buy that small island in the South Pacific he's always wanted, instead of spending next year clipping coupons from the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle.
SATs
Pencils up. The first section of the first annual Jewscott SAT test starts in T-minus 5, 4, 3, meh, just answer the analogy section.
1. Upside: Young Shortstop
a) Jay Bell: Jason Bartlett
B) Greg Gagne: Trevor Plouffe
C) Pat Meares: Jason Bartlett
D) Khalil Greene: Trevor Plouffe
E) Jesse Crain: Paul Kelly
F) None of the Above
2. Stuff: Pitching Prospect
A) Brad Radke: Scott Baker
B) Kyle Lohse: Scott Baker
C) Mike Mussina: Scott Baker
D) None of the above
3. Snowball: Hell
A) Jason Pridie: Making the Team
B) Jason Kubel: Starting the season in right field
C) Nomar Garciaparra: Signing as a free agent
D) Hank Blalock: Being traded for
E) None of the above
4. 2006 season: breakout
A) Michael Cuddyer: .280/.360/.550
B) Joe Mauer: .320/.410/.500
C) Justin Morneau: .290/.370/.600
D) None of the Above
5. 2006 season: concern
A) Torii Hunter: ankle
B) Shannon Stewart and Luis Castillo: Diminishing speed
C) Lew Ford: aloofness
D) Jesse Crain: K/9 rate
E) None of the Above
6. Mike Piazza: DH
A) Bret Boone: 2B
B) Matt Lecroy: DH
C) Justin Morneau: 1B
D) None of the Above
7. Gardenhire: Managing
A) Rodin: Sculpting
B) Faulkner: Writing
C) Fife: Deputying
D) None of the Above
8. Johan Santana: 00s
A) Lefty Grove: 20s
B) Sandy Koufax: 60s
C) Steve Carlton: 70s
D) Randy Johnson: 90s
E) None of the Above
Pencils Down.
1. Upside: Young Shortstop
a) Jay Bell: Jason Bartlett
B) Greg Gagne: Trevor Plouffe
C) Pat Meares: Jason Bartlett
D) Khalil Greene: Trevor Plouffe
E) Jesse Crain: Paul Kelly
F) None of the Above
2. Stuff: Pitching Prospect
A) Brad Radke: Scott Baker
B) Kyle Lohse: Scott Baker
C) Mike Mussina: Scott Baker
D) None of the above
3. Snowball: Hell
A) Jason Pridie: Making the Team
B) Jason Kubel: Starting the season in right field
C) Nomar Garciaparra: Signing as a free agent
D) Hank Blalock: Being traded for
E) None of the above
4. 2006 season: breakout
A) Michael Cuddyer: .280/.360/.550
B) Joe Mauer: .320/.410/.500
C) Justin Morneau: .290/.370/.600
D) None of the Above
5. 2006 season: concern
A) Torii Hunter: ankle
B) Shannon Stewart and Luis Castillo: Diminishing speed
C) Lew Ford: aloofness
D) Jesse Crain: K/9 rate
E) None of the Above
6. Mike Piazza: DH
A) Bret Boone: 2B
B) Matt Lecroy: DH
C) Justin Morneau: 1B
D) None of the Above
7. Gardenhire: Managing
A) Rodin: Sculpting
B) Faulkner: Writing
C) Fife: Deputying
D) None of the Above
8. Johan Santana: 00s
A) Lefty Grove: 20s
B) Sandy Koufax: 60s
C) Steve Carlton: 70s
D) Randy Johnson: 90s
E) None of the Above
Pencils Down.
Thursday, December 08, 2005
Transaction Analysis: Twins Grab Pride in Rule 5 draft
The Twins made their first legit roster move of the Winter Meetings today, drafting Jason Pridie from the Devil Rays in the Rule 5 draft and filling a roster spot that opened with the trade of Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler (the Strib errantly reported that they didn't have an opening yesterday).
Pridie is a player the Twins have had their eye on for some time, with his name being rumored to the Twins back in the 2002 draft. The Twins grabbed Denard Span in the first round, and Pridie didn't make it back through to them, going 43rd overall to the Devil Rays. His older brother is former Twins farm hand Jon Pridie, a right-hander who never lived up to the potential that was in his big right arm. Pridie the younger is a lot like his big bro, in the sense that he has a lot of untapped potential at this point, too. Pridie has a real pretty swing, some power potential and good speed, but at this point his minor league numbers have been Torii Hunter-esq. The knock on him is that he tries to pull the ball too much instead of using the whole field and his speed to get on-base. Plus so far he's made Jacque Jones look like a patient so far in his career.
Pridie is your classic high-risk/high-reward Rule 5 pick. He's only had 94 at-bats in the high minors at this point, but if the Twins can hide him as a fifth outfielder for the whole season, he has the upside to be pretty good down the road. That said, I'm not to optimistic about the Twins being able to protect him on the 25-man roster this year.
Pridie is a player the Twins have had their eye on for some time, with his name being rumored to the Twins back in the 2002 draft. The Twins grabbed Denard Span in the first round, and Pridie didn't make it back through to them, going 43rd overall to the Devil Rays. His older brother is former Twins farm hand Jon Pridie, a right-hander who never lived up to the potential that was in his big right arm. Pridie the younger is a lot like his big bro, in the sense that he has a lot of untapped potential at this point, too. Pridie has a real pretty swing, some power potential and good speed, but at this point his minor league numbers have been Torii Hunter-esq. The knock on him is that he tries to pull the ball too much instead of using the whole field and his speed to get on-base. Plus so far he's made Jacque Jones look like a patient so far in his career.
Pridie is your classic high-risk/high-reward Rule 5 pick. He's only had 94 at-bats in the high minors at this point, but if the Twins can hide him as a fifth outfielder for the whole season, he has the upside to be pretty good down the road. That said, I'm not to optimistic about the Twins being able to protect him on the 25-man roster this year.
Wednesday, December 07, 2005
Au Revoir, Joe Mays
It's official. Joe Mays run as a Twin is over.
To which I say, Kevin Federline's rapping skills > Joe Mays
To which I say, Kevin Federline's rapping skills > Joe Mays
Tuesday, December 06, 2005
Some quick hits from the Airport
Bill Mueller is dead. Long live, well, whoever the next Twins' third baseman is.
In Pittsburgh, they speculate Mueller is just a West Coast kind of guy. They also mention our little Jacquey as a potential Pirate.
Meanwhile, in Cincinnati, the Twins get mentioned in a rumor most people seem to like.
Back in the Twin Cities, Michael Cuddyer gets mentioned as a possible DH. The most important passage in it is this though:
But Ryan continues to mention Cuddyer among the group of core young players — Justin Morneau, Jason Bartlett and Joe Mauer also included — from whom the GM expects big things in 2006.
The real question is what is a fair price for Austin Kearns? And how do you work Kearns, Kubel and Cuddyer into a line-up that doesn't have Cuddyer at third?
In Pittsburgh, they speculate Mueller is just a West Coast kind of guy. They also mention our little Jacquey as a potential Pirate.
Meanwhile, in Cincinnati, the Twins get mentioned in a rumor most people seem to like.
Back in the Twin Cities, Michael Cuddyer gets mentioned as a possible DH. The most important passage in it is this though:
But Ryan continues to mention Cuddyer among the group of core young players — Justin Morneau, Jason Bartlett and Joe Mauer also included — from whom the GM expects big things in 2006.
The real question is what is a fair price for Austin Kearns? And how do you work Kearns, Kubel and Cuddyer into a line-up that doesn't have Cuddyer at third?
Monday, December 05, 2005
Improving on LaValle E. Neal III
The Strib's Twins' beat writer Lavalle E. Neal wrote a column about what might happen at the Winter Meetings this week. I decided to help him out by adding something of an analytical part to it. For those at legal eagle's at the Strib, Neal's words are in italics, mine aren't.
5 scenarios for the Twins
by Lavalle E. Neal III and Jewscott
1. Bill Mueller signs: He would be a nice fit for a reasonable price, like $3-4 million. The switch-hitting third baseman takes good at-bats and is solid in the field. He'd be a great No. 2 hitter, but the trade for Luis Castillo gives the Twins a very good one already. By the way, Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling has called Mueller one of his top five teammates of all time.
Odds: 3-1. As much as Ryan likes Mueller, though, he won't give up a first round pick to get him, unless he has an extra one coming in for Jacque Jones. It's completely against his MO. Mueller is a type-A free agent, so nothing will happen before the arbritration deadline on December 7th. If the Red Sox offer Mueller compensation, he'll still cost a first round pick to sign. If Jones signs with the Cardinals before December 7th, the Twins get the Cardinals first round choice (assuming they don't go out and sign A.J. Burnett or some other free-agent ranked higher than Jones.) If he signs with the Blue Jays or Royals, the best the Twins can do is get a second-round pick. If the Red Sox offer Mueller arbritration, and its completely in their M.O. to do so, don't expect him in a Twins uniform any time soon.
2. J. C. Romero gets traded: He's expected to be part of some deal. The Twins considered trading him after last season but brought him back and were worse off because of it. Romero, a lefthander, is extremely talented and can get left-handed and right-handed hitters out. But his pitch selection has baffled the coaching staff and his demeanor on the mound and in the clubhouse at times has flat-out irritated them. He should be easy to trade, but don't forget, scouts watch Romero's behavior on the mound, too.
Odds: 1.5-1. The Twins seem hell-bent on trying to trade Romero, even though he's really no different than Alan Embree, Damaso Marte or any other power lefty-reliever out there. The best they can probably hope for is a couple of promising arms from the low-minors, unless they find a three-team deal or a team willing to take him as part of a package for something bigger.
3. The Rangers come to their senses: The Twins and Rangers have talked about third baseman Hank Blalock, left, but things grounded to a halt when Texas asked for left-handed phenom Francisco Liriano. He will not be traded. But what about Romero and Lohse for Blalock? Or Romero and Scott Baker for Blalock? Or even Romero, Lohse and Baker for Blalock? Blalock might struggle against lefties and isn't as lethal on the road, but he has pop, has experience batting cleanup and can pick it a little at third base. A better fit than Mueller.
Odds: 5-1. No matter how much the Twins whine, the Rangers aren't going to lower the price tag on their cheap, young, former All-Star third baseman. Blalock is exactly what the Twins need if Cuddyer gets moved off third base, but that's the Twins' problem, not the Rangers'. The Twins best hope is that they can come up with a package of prospects involving Baker instead of Liriano. Lohse and Romero aren't going to sway the Rangers very much.
4. Mike Piazza? Dan Lozano, Mike Piazza's agent, was asked how can a guy who is accustomed to the limelight of Los Angeles and New York be willing to play 81 games a year in the Upper Midwest. Lozano said Piazza, 37, is ready to step a little bit out of the limelight. As a full-time DH, Piazza could have a couple big years in him -- and his opposite power would show up well in the Dome. The Angels also are interested in Piazza.
Odds: 2-1. Of course Piazza is willing to step out of the limelight a little. His play hasn't been worthy of the limelight for the past three years. The departed Matt LeCroy put up better numbers than Piazza last year. I'm sure Piazza would love to call Minnesota home for a season. But signing an older, frailer version of Matt LeCroy for more money than it would have cost to go to arbitration with the Twins old DH isn't smart management. Could it happen? Sure. But it speaks poorly of the Twins management if it does. Betting on an aging player to make a comeback rarely works out (see: Boone, Bret).
5. The end of Soul Patrol II: The Twins kicked around the idea of offering Jacque Jones a two-year deal, but he likely will get four-year offers elsewhere. Kansas City and Toronto are among the teams interested in Jones, who's a great teammate, has some power and has good range in the outfield. This breakup will highlight what the Twins are trying to achieve this offseason. They've had too many undisciplined hitters in their lineup for years. Jones has struck out at least 105 times in five different seasons. It's time to try someone else.
Odds: 1.25-1. If the Royals really made him a four year-$24 million offer, the only question left is do you offer Jones arbritration on Wednesday to force compensation out of teams. Given the team was kicking around the idea of offering him a two-year contract anyway, why not take the chance?
--LEN3 And J-Dub
5 scenarios for the Twins
by Lavalle E. Neal III and Jewscott
1. Bill Mueller signs: He would be a nice fit for a reasonable price, like $3-4 million. The switch-hitting third baseman takes good at-bats and is solid in the field. He'd be a great No. 2 hitter, but the trade for Luis Castillo gives the Twins a very good one already. By the way, Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling has called Mueller one of his top five teammates of all time.
Odds: 3-1. As much as Ryan likes Mueller, though, he won't give up a first round pick to get him, unless he has an extra one coming in for Jacque Jones. It's completely against his MO. Mueller is a type-A free agent, so nothing will happen before the arbritration deadline on December 7th. If the Red Sox offer Mueller compensation, he'll still cost a first round pick to sign. If Jones signs with the Cardinals before December 7th, the Twins get the Cardinals first round choice (assuming they don't go out and sign A.J. Burnett or some other free-agent ranked higher than Jones.) If he signs with the Blue Jays or Royals, the best the Twins can do is get a second-round pick. If the Red Sox offer Mueller arbritration, and its completely in their M.O. to do so, don't expect him in a Twins uniform any time soon.
2. J. C. Romero gets traded: He's expected to be part of some deal. The Twins considered trading him after last season but brought him back and were worse off because of it. Romero, a lefthander, is extremely talented and can get left-handed and right-handed hitters out. But his pitch selection has baffled the coaching staff and his demeanor on the mound and in the clubhouse at times has flat-out irritated them. He should be easy to trade, but don't forget, scouts watch Romero's behavior on the mound, too.
Odds: 1.5-1. The Twins seem hell-bent on trying to trade Romero, even though he's really no different than Alan Embree, Damaso Marte or any other power lefty-reliever out there. The best they can probably hope for is a couple of promising arms from the low-minors, unless they find a three-team deal or a team willing to take him as part of a package for something bigger.
3. The Rangers come to their senses: The Twins and Rangers have talked about third baseman Hank Blalock, left, but things grounded to a halt when Texas asked for left-handed phenom Francisco Liriano. He will not be traded. But what about Romero and Lohse for Blalock? Or Romero and Scott Baker for Blalock? Or even Romero, Lohse and Baker for Blalock? Blalock might struggle against lefties and isn't as lethal on the road, but he has pop, has experience batting cleanup and can pick it a little at third base. A better fit than Mueller.
Odds: 5-1. No matter how much the Twins whine, the Rangers aren't going to lower the price tag on their cheap, young, former All-Star third baseman. Blalock is exactly what the Twins need if Cuddyer gets moved off third base, but that's the Twins' problem, not the Rangers'. The Twins best hope is that they can come up with a package of prospects involving Baker instead of Liriano. Lohse and Romero aren't going to sway the Rangers very much.
4. Mike Piazza? Dan Lozano, Mike Piazza's agent, was asked how can a guy who is accustomed to the limelight of Los Angeles and New York be willing to play 81 games a year in the Upper Midwest. Lozano said Piazza, 37, is ready to step a little bit out of the limelight. As a full-time DH, Piazza could have a couple big years in him -- and his opposite power would show up well in the Dome. The Angels also are interested in Piazza.
Odds: 2-1. Of course Piazza is willing to step out of the limelight a little. His play hasn't been worthy of the limelight for the past three years. The departed Matt LeCroy put up better numbers than Piazza last year. I'm sure Piazza would love to call Minnesota home for a season. But signing an older, frailer version of Matt LeCroy for more money than it would have cost to go to arbitration with the Twins old DH isn't smart management. Could it happen? Sure. But it speaks poorly of the Twins management if it does. Betting on an aging player to make a comeback rarely works out (see: Boone, Bret).
5. The end of Soul Patrol II: The Twins kicked around the idea of offering Jacque Jones a two-year deal, but he likely will get four-year offers elsewhere. Kansas City and Toronto are among the teams interested in Jones, who's a great teammate, has some power and has good range in the outfield. This breakup will highlight what the Twins are trying to achieve this offseason. They've had too many undisciplined hitters in their lineup for years. Jones has struck out at least 105 times in five different seasons. It's time to try someone else.
Odds: 1.25-1. If the Royals really made him a four year-$24 million offer, the only question left is do you offer Jones arbritration on Wednesday to force compensation out of teams. Given the team was kicking around the idea of offering him a two-year contract anyway, why not take the chance?
--LEN3 And J-Dub
Sunday, December 04, 2005
Sunday Evening Roundtable
Tom Powers had an interesting column in the Pioneer Press this morning about what needs to be done, more to the point the trading of pitchers. It was all fine and dandy until he got to this point.
"Overlooked amid their struggles at the plate last season were the Twins' struggles in the field. With the exception of reserve shortstop Juan Castro, everyone turned ground balls into adventures. It was a very un-Twins-like performance.
Catchable balls squirted through the infield every game. I can't even begin to count all the times Lew Ford picked them up in the outfield and threw them back in — to the wrong base."
I suppose a debate over who's the bigger scapegoat-- Lew Ford or Michael Cuddyer-- might be interesting. But I'm more fascinated by the argument that the Twins' defense was worse in 2005 than it was in 2004.
I'd like to see what my readership of, oh, a half-dozen or so thinks?
"Overlooked amid their struggles at the plate last season were the Twins' struggles in the field. With the exception of reserve shortstop Juan Castro, everyone turned ground balls into adventures. It was a very un-Twins-like performance.
Catchable balls squirted through the infield every game. I can't even begin to count all the times Lew Ford picked them up in the outfield and threw them back in — to the wrong base."
I suppose a debate over who's the bigger scapegoat-- Lew Ford or Michael Cuddyer-- might be interesting. But I'm more fascinated by the argument that the Twins' defense was worse in 2005 than it was in 2004.
I'd like to see what my readership of, oh, a half-dozen or so thinks?
Friday, December 02, 2005
Transaction Analysis
December 2nd: The Twins trade pitchers Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler to Florida for 2B Luis Castillo.
Well, we've waited a long time for the Twins first big transaction of the offseason, and now a month and a half later, it's finally here.
In Luis Castillo, the Twins finally get their second baseman. And there's a lot of good, and equally as many bad things to say about that. The good part of the trade is that the Nick Punto, starting second baseman experiement has come to an end. And that end couldn't have come soon enough. Castillo is better at almost every phase of the game than Punto. He's a better defender according to just about every defensive metric out there. He hit .300 last year, and put up a near .400 on-base percentage. These are things that will help the Twins put more runs on the board in 2006. But at the same time, it's not as big of a boost as you'd like to get. Because Castillo's career .370 on-base percentage is a good 14 points higher than his .356 career slugging percentage. And while the Twins, rightfully so, have realized their 10th place on-base percentage was part of the problem, at some point they've got to realize that their tied for last slugging percentage was an even bigger problem in 2005.
Castillo isn't on par with a Knoblauch or a Rod Carew as far as second basemen go. In fact, he's more on par with Tom Herr-- another low slugging percentage, high OBP, good defensive second baseman from the team's past. The bright side is the team didn't give up Tom Brunansky to get him. Nor did they forfeit the first round pick it would've took to get Tony Graffanino. All it cost them were two pitching prospects, and pitching prospects who were highly replaceable in Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler. Bowyer has a great arm, yes. One capable of generating 100 mile an hour fastballs. But at the same time, he has about as much control as Oprah has around the dessert bar and no secondary pitches to speak of. While he'd definitely be a plus to have in the bullpen, more than likely someone like J.D. Durbin would outproduce him in a set-up role. And while Scott Tyler also posses one of the more spectular arms in the system, he's miles behind guys like Adam Harben and Anthony Swarzak at this point.
This isn't a bad trade for the Twins. But it isn't a great one either. Castillo was worth approximately 6 wins above a replacement level second baseman last year. Punto clocked in at 2. They've improved a position. But there's still a long ways to go before they can be satisfied.
Well, we've waited a long time for the Twins first big transaction of the offseason, and now a month and a half later, it's finally here.
In Luis Castillo, the Twins finally get their second baseman. And there's a lot of good, and equally as many bad things to say about that. The good part of the trade is that the Nick Punto, starting second baseman experiement has come to an end. And that end couldn't have come soon enough. Castillo is better at almost every phase of the game than Punto. He's a better defender according to just about every defensive metric out there. He hit .300 last year, and put up a near .400 on-base percentage. These are things that will help the Twins put more runs on the board in 2006. But at the same time, it's not as big of a boost as you'd like to get. Because Castillo's career .370 on-base percentage is a good 14 points higher than his .356 career slugging percentage. And while the Twins, rightfully so, have realized their 10th place on-base percentage was part of the problem, at some point they've got to realize that their tied for last slugging percentage was an even bigger problem in 2005.
Castillo isn't on par with a Knoblauch or a Rod Carew as far as second basemen go. In fact, he's more on par with Tom Herr-- another low slugging percentage, high OBP, good defensive second baseman from the team's past. The bright side is the team didn't give up Tom Brunansky to get him. Nor did they forfeit the first round pick it would've took to get Tony Graffanino. All it cost them were two pitching prospects, and pitching prospects who were highly replaceable in Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler. Bowyer has a great arm, yes. One capable of generating 100 mile an hour fastballs. But at the same time, he has about as much control as Oprah has around the dessert bar and no secondary pitches to speak of. While he'd definitely be a plus to have in the bullpen, more than likely someone like J.D. Durbin would outproduce him in a set-up role. And while Scott Tyler also posses one of the more spectular arms in the system, he's miles behind guys like Adam Harben and Anthony Swarzak at this point.
This isn't a bad trade for the Twins. But it isn't a great one either. Castillo was worth approximately 6 wins above a replacement level second baseman last year. Punto clocked in at 2. They've improved a position. But there's still a long ways to go before they can be satisfied.
Organization Report: Third Base
Key
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
The Players
Michael Cuddyer
DOB—3-27-1979 AGE: 26
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round, 1997
Career Stats
Terry Tiffee
DOB—4-21-1979 AGE: 26
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 26th Round, 1999
Career Stats
Glenn Williams
DOB—7-18-1977 AGE: 28
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Matt Moses
DOB—2-20-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round, 2003
Career Stats
Jose Leger
DOB—5-19-1982 AGE: 23
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Undrafted Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
David Winfree
DOB—8-5-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 13th Round, 2003
Career Stats
Travis Kalin
DOB—7-30-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 43th Round, 2003
Career Stats
Matthew Betsill
DOB—8-16-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 10th Round, 2005
Career Stats
Joseph Abellera
DOB—8-2-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 21st Round, 2004
Career Stats
Juan Delgado
DOB—7-18-1986 AGE: 19
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2004
Career Stats
Daniel Berg
DOB—11-21-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 30th Round, 2004
Career Stats
The Skinny
If you’re a decent human being you can’t help but feel sorry for Michael Cuddyer, or as he might be called on the street D.J. Gardy’s Whipping Boy. For those following along at home, let’s follow Cuddyer’s timeline within the organization.
June, 1997—Drafted by the Twins in the first round
January 1999—Named the top prospect in the Twins organization by Baseball America
Spring Training 2001—Told by Tom Kelly he had little chance of pushing Corey Koskie aside at third base, so he better start brushing up on his right field.
September 2001—Makes Major League Debut.
September 2002—Earns starting right field job with a hot September
April 2003—Plays his way out of the starting right field job with a .190/266/.362 start
April 2004—The Twins announce that they think Cuddyer plays better in the infield. Give him a “super utility” role.
March 2005—Cuddyer named Corey Koskie’s replacement at third base.
April 2005—See April 2003
If there were a book entitled Ruining Top Prospects for Dummies, the Cuddyer example would probably be example one of what to do. Let’s see, start out by having the manager break his confidence before he gets to the majors. Give up on him after slow starts. Throw him around to several new positions, and then wonder loudly in the media why he doesn’t look good in the field. Establishing yourself as a major league player is tough. It doesn’t help when your team keeps throwing you curveballs.
But the Cuddyer saga has taken yet another interesting twist. Now Gardenhire and Ryan have come to the conclusion that Cuddyer can’t handle third base defensively and hits better when he doesn’t play third base. Both of which really don’t look at the facts much. All you can do with the first one is say Cuddyer sure looked a lot better at third defensively in August then he did in April. Most defensive metrics will back this up as well (Cuddyer’s fielding percentage also jumped from sub-.900 at one point to a better than Nomar .942). The second one, however, is easy to refute. All you have to do is look at Cuddyer’s position splits for his career.
Position AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
RF 212 .274 .336 .439 .775
3B 502 .263 .329 .442 .771
2B 156 .244 .328 .410 .743
Cuddyer right now isn’t so much a baseball player as he’s a big piece of litmus paper. Ryan is rushing to an assumption based on two-weeks of Cuddyer hitting well in right field that Cuddyer hits better when he plays right-field. It’s akin to thinking because Doug Mientkiewicz hit like Ted Williams in April of 2001 he is, in fact, the second coming of Ted Williams. Players go on hot and cold streaks all the time. Reading too much into them is something fans do, not supposedly good general managers.
If Cuddyer starts 2006 in right field, it’s such a stupid decision that you almost have to write off the Twins for the next couple of years. If they’re making decisions like this, they have no chance of keeping pace with the smartly led Indians and sometimes smartly led White Sox in the division. Cuddyer still has potential. He’s still the kid who slugged 30 homeruns at New Britain in 2000 (playing mostly third base, for the record). There’s still a chance he goes Ortiz in 2006, which means his bat would play wherever the Twins play him. But at the same point, the Twins have a right field prospect who’s going to be ready in either April or May in Jason Kubel. They have a solid outfielder in Lew Ford to pick-up the slack if Kubel isn’t ready. There’s no need for Cuddyer in right field, and no evidence that suggests he plays better there.
But not to be completely pro-Cuddyer, he could really help himself if he’d just stop having those horrid Aprils.
Terry Tiffee and Glenn Williams were the third basemen who frequented Rochester last year. And the two of them both look like the Twins used technology to bring back some form of technology to bring back some of the Twins’ third basemen of the past—a machine quite possibly invented by this man here.
If Tiffee’s combination of low walks/strikeouts with a little bit of power and the ability to play a below-average third and an above-average first base sounds familiar, then you were around for the Ron Coomer era. The only thing that’s missing is a heavy LHP platoon split. And Glenn Williams has that, plus the ability to fill in at shortstop and play second that made Scotty Leuis a fan favorite all those years ago. Williams is a minor league free-agent who may or may not resign with the Twins at this point. Tiffee, in a note of interest, was the Jayhawk League’s All-Star third baseman back in 1999 over some kid named Pujols.
It might be hard to find a kid with a stranger career path than Matt Moses. He came into the year with only 181 career minor league at-bats, and ended it by being one of the youngest kids in the Eastern League. He hit the ball well in Florida, but found himself overmatched in New Britain. Which isn’t all that surprising because he was only 20 at the time. He has the kind of power potential where he could quickly become the team’s leading homerun hitter with the surname Moses, passing John Moses’ 4. But the comparison to Hank Blalock right now is more apt in the field, where his best trait is he’s not very error prone. Still, had he gone to Clemson he wouldn’t have been eligible to be redrafted until next year, so he has some time to work on that.
Moses’ fellow Draft Class of 2003 third basemen, David Winfree also had a huge year—albeit a very flawed huge year. Winfree’s best tool is his power, which rivals Henry Sanchez’s for the best in the system. He also has a pretty good arm, to the point where there was some debate on whether or not Winfree should don the tools of ignorance. The good news is that despite the high error total, scouts seem to think Winfree has the arm and agility to stay at third base. Which is good, because his lack of strike-zone judgment becomes even more of a black mark at first base. One other thing to note about Winfree is that he took advantage of Belot’s small field last year, hitting .318 with 11 home runs at home compared to only .270 with 5 homeruns on the road. I bring it up only because it could become an issue when he moves to the cavernous ballparks of the FSL next year.
Like Moses and Winfree,Travis Kalin was also drafted in 2003, and made the slide over to third this year. He split time with 10th round pick Matt Betsill in Elizabethton this year. Together they formed something of an odd couple, because having two such similar prospects on one team is really creepy. A little bit of pop and a good arm though is all it takes to make a third base prospect worth watching. And what do you know, it’s something both of them have in common. To distinguish themselves from the pack, they’ll need to hit for more power or turn into human vacuums defensively.
Saying Juan Delgado hit the ball well this year would be the biggest lie since Harry the lying Hippopotamus claimed he won first prize in the Hawaiian Tropics Swimsuit Pageant. But he’s athletic and young enough to get another chance to change that. And hey, there is a little bit of power hidden in that .097 average.
Look up the definition of organizational solider in the dictionary and you may see a picture of Jose Leger. The point of having players in this layer is that if you need a third baseman at say, Fort Myers, and you don’t feel a more regarded prospect is ready to handle it. You can plug in a guy like Leger, fresh from a low-level college. Give him credit though, he did pretty well for himself.
Joesph Aberella and Daniel Berg handled the bulk of third base duty in the GCL this year and did little to distinguish themselves. Aberella’s best tool right now may be that he’s from Hopkins, which may earn him a shot at Elizabethton next year after two not-so-great seasons in the GCL.
Jewscott ranks the prospects
1. Matt Moses
2. David Winfree
3. Glenn Williams
4. Terry Tiffee
5. Travis Kalin
6. Matthew Betsill
Questions for debate.
1. Third, second or right field: Where do you play Cuddyer next year?
2. How much fact do you think the "Michael Cuddyer hits better away from third base" theory is grounded in?
3. If you were the Twins GM, who would you target to be your third baseman in 2006?
4. Glenn Williams > Scott Leuis?
5 .Terry Tiffee > Ron Coomer?
6. Is Matt Moses the team's best position playing prospect right now?
7. Compare and contrast Matt Moses at age 20 to Michael Cuddyer at age 20.
8. Is David Winfree a better third base prospect than Moses, and how would you rank the Twins prospects at this position?
9. From 1-10, how do you rate the team's depth at this position?
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
The Players
Michael Cuddyer
DOB—3-27-1979 AGE: 26
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round, 1997
Career Stats
Terry Tiffee
DOB—4-21-1979 AGE: 26
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 26th Round, 1999
Career Stats
Glenn Williams
DOB—7-18-1977 AGE: 28
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Matt Moses
DOB—2-20-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round, 2003
Career Stats
Jose Leger
DOB—5-19-1982 AGE: 23
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Undrafted Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
David Winfree
DOB—8-5-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 13th Round, 2003
Career Stats
Travis Kalin
DOB—7-30-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 43th Round, 2003
Career Stats
Matthew Betsill
DOB—8-16-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 10th Round, 2005
Career Stats
Joseph Abellera
DOB—8-2-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 21st Round, 2004
Career Stats
Juan Delgado
DOB—7-18-1986 AGE: 19
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2004
Career Stats
Daniel Berg
DOB—11-21-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 30th Round, 2004
Career Stats
The Skinny
If you’re a decent human being you can’t help but feel sorry for Michael Cuddyer, or as he might be called on the street D.J. Gardy’s Whipping Boy. For those following along at home, let’s follow Cuddyer’s timeline within the organization.
June, 1997—Drafted by the Twins in the first round
January 1999—Named the top prospect in the Twins organization by Baseball America
Spring Training 2001—Told by Tom Kelly he had little chance of pushing Corey Koskie aside at third base, so he better start brushing up on his right field.
September 2001—Makes Major League Debut.
September 2002—Earns starting right field job with a hot September
April 2003—Plays his way out of the starting right field job with a .190/266/.362 start
April 2004—The Twins announce that they think Cuddyer plays better in the infield. Give him a “super utility” role.
March 2005—Cuddyer named Corey Koskie’s replacement at third base.
April 2005—See April 2003
If there were a book entitled Ruining Top Prospects for Dummies, the Cuddyer example would probably be example one of what to do. Let’s see, start out by having the manager break his confidence before he gets to the majors. Give up on him after slow starts. Throw him around to several new positions, and then wonder loudly in the media why he doesn’t look good in the field. Establishing yourself as a major league player is tough. It doesn’t help when your team keeps throwing you curveballs.
But the Cuddyer saga has taken yet another interesting twist. Now Gardenhire and Ryan have come to the conclusion that Cuddyer can’t handle third base defensively and hits better when he doesn’t play third base. Both of which really don’t look at the facts much. All you can do with the first one is say Cuddyer sure looked a lot better at third defensively in August then he did in April. Most defensive metrics will back this up as well (Cuddyer’s fielding percentage also jumped from sub-.900 at one point to a better than Nomar .942). The second one, however, is easy to refute. All you have to do is look at Cuddyer’s position splits for his career.
Position AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
RF 212 .274 .336 .439 .775
3B 502 .263 .329 .442 .771
2B 156 .244 .328 .410 .743
Cuddyer right now isn’t so much a baseball player as he’s a big piece of litmus paper. Ryan is rushing to an assumption based on two-weeks of Cuddyer hitting well in right field that Cuddyer hits better when he plays right-field. It’s akin to thinking because Doug Mientkiewicz hit like Ted Williams in April of 2001 he is, in fact, the second coming of Ted Williams. Players go on hot and cold streaks all the time. Reading too much into them is something fans do, not supposedly good general managers.
If Cuddyer starts 2006 in right field, it’s such a stupid decision that you almost have to write off the Twins for the next couple of years. If they’re making decisions like this, they have no chance of keeping pace with the smartly led Indians and sometimes smartly led White Sox in the division. Cuddyer still has potential. He’s still the kid who slugged 30 homeruns at New Britain in 2000 (playing mostly third base, for the record). There’s still a chance he goes Ortiz in 2006, which means his bat would play wherever the Twins play him. But at the same point, the Twins have a right field prospect who’s going to be ready in either April or May in Jason Kubel. They have a solid outfielder in Lew Ford to pick-up the slack if Kubel isn’t ready. There’s no need for Cuddyer in right field, and no evidence that suggests he plays better there.
But not to be completely pro-Cuddyer, he could really help himself if he’d just stop having those horrid Aprils.
Terry Tiffee and Glenn Williams were the third basemen who frequented Rochester last year. And the two of them both look like the Twins used technology to bring back some form of technology to bring back some of the Twins’ third basemen of the past—a machine quite possibly invented by this man here.
If Tiffee’s combination of low walks/strikeouts with a little bit of power and the ability to play a below-average third and an above-average first base sounds familiar, then you were around for the Ron Coomer era. The only thing that’s missing is a heavy LHP platoon split. And Glenn Williams has that, plus the ability to fill in at shortstop and play second that made Scotty Leuis a fan favorite all those years ago. Williams is a minor league free-agent who may or may not resign with the Twins at this point. Tiffee, in a note of interest, was the Jayhawk League’s All-Star third baseman back in 1999 over some kid named Pujols.
It might be hard to find a kid with a stranger career path than Matt Moses. He came into the year with only 181 career minor league at-bats, and ended it by being one of the youngest kids in the Eastern League. He hit the ball well in Florida, but found himself overmatched in New Britain. Which isn’t all that surprising because he was only 20 at the time. He has the kind of power potential where he could quickly become the team’s leading homerun hitter with the surname Moses, passing John Moses’ 4. But the comparison to Hank Blalock right now is more apt in the field, where his best trait is he’s not very error prone. Still, had he gone to Clemson he wouldn’t have been eligible to be redrafted until next year, so he has some time to work on that.
Moses’ fellow Draft Class of 2003 third basemen, David Winfree also had a huge year—albeit a very flawed huge year. Winfree’s best tool is his power, which rivals Henry Sanchez’s for the best in the system. He also has a pretty good arm, to the point where there was some debate on whether or not Winfree should don the tools of ignorance. The good news is that despite the high error total, scouts seem to think Winfree has the arm and agility to stay at third base. Which is good, because his lack of strike-zone judgment becomes even more of a black mark at first base. One other thing to note about Winfree is that he took advantage of Belot’s small field last year, hitting .318 with 11 home runs at home compared to only .270 with 5 homeruns on the road. I bring it up only because it could become an issue when he moves to the cavernous ballparks of the FSL next year.
Like Moses and Winfree,Travis Kalin was also drafted in 2003, and made the slide over to third this year. He split time with 10th round pick Matt Betsill in Elizabethton this year. Together they formed something of an odd couple, because having two such similar prospects on one team is really creepy. A little bit of pop and a good arm though is all it takes to make a third base prospect worth watching. And what do you know, it’s something both of them have in common. To distinguish themselves from the pack, they’ll need to hit for more power or turn into human vacuums defensively.
Saying Juan Delgado hit the ball well this year would be the biggest lie since Harry the lying Hippopotamus claimed he won first prize in the Hawaiian Tropics Swimsuit Pageant. But he’s athletic and young enough to get another chance to change that. And hey, there is a little bit of power hidden in that .097 average.
Look up the definition of organizational solider in the dictionary and you may see a picture of Jose Leger. The point of having players in this layer is that if you need a third baseman at say, Fort Myers, and you don’t feel a more regarded prospect is ready to handle it. You can plug in a guy like Leger, fresh from a low-level college. Give him credit though, he did pretty well for himself.
Joesph Aberella and Daniel Berg handled the bulk of third base duty in the GCL this year and did little to distinguish themselves. Aberella’s best tool right now may be that he’s from Hopkins, which may earn him a shot at Elizabethton next year after two not-so-great seasons in the GCL.
Jewscott ranks the prospects
1. Matt Moses
2. David Winfree
3. Glenn Williams
4. Terry Tiffee
5. Travis Kalin
6. Matthew Betsill
Questions for debate.
1. Third, second or right field: Where do you play Cuddyer next year?
2. How much fact do you think the "Michael Cuddyer hits better away from third base" theory is grounded in?
3. If you were the Twins GM, who would you target to be your third baseman in 2006?
4. Glenn Williams > Scott Leuis?
5 .
6. Is Matt Moses the team's best position playing prospect right now?
7. Compare and contrast Matt Moses at age 20 to Michael Cuddyer at age 20.
8. Is David Winfree a better third base prospect than Moses, and how would you rank the Twins prospects at this position?
9. From 1-10, how do you rate the team's depth at this position?
Tuesday, November 29, 2005
Kibitzing and Bits
Okay. Here's an open forum posting that all you cats asked for to Kibitz, and propose topics. It's more of a way of saying "I'm lazy and I've got to catch a flight to Chicago in an hour to record some stuff so I don't have time to write anything of merit" but then again you asked for it.
So, what topics need to be addressed here? And here are a few thoughts.
• Will Carroll had an excellent Kibitzing column in Baseball Prospectus yesterday. One of the more interesting points was that baseball's new "steroid" laws seem to have players afraid of taking any supplements, including simple protein shakes. The end result will lead to more injuries. I ask this, is this steroid hunt nothing more than the new Salem Witch trials?
• Carroll also added some veracity to the Jacque Jones to St. Louis rumors.
• Also in Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan made a comment that the Marlins deserved to be whacked for selling off their club for the second time because the citizens of South Florida wouldn't build them a new baseball stadium and wonders whether or not contracting them along with the Royals would be a bad thing. Meanwhile, Carl Pohlad made comments that the team has lost $15 million dollars a year for the last four years, the only lie that could be more blatantly obvious would be Britney Spears claming to still be a virgin . How many times can you cry wolf before no one pays attention?
• Not a current news article, but am I the only one who thinks a Corey Patterson for Kyle Lohse trade isn't that bad of an idea, especially with Denard Span looking like the second coming of Otis Nixon?
Kibitz away.
So, what topics need to be addressed here? And here are a few thoughts.
• Will Carroll had an excellent Kibitzing column in Baseball Prospectus yesterday. One of the more interesting points was that baseball's new "steroid" laws seem to have players afraid of taking any supplements, including simple protein shakes. The end result will lead to more injuries. I ask this, is this steroid hunt nothing more than the new Salem Witch trials?
• Carroll also added some veracity to the Jacque Jones to St. Louis rumors.
• Also in Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan made a comment that the Marlins deserved to be whacked for selling off their club for the second time because the citizens of South Florida wouldn't build them a new baseball stadium and wonders whether or not contracting them along with the Royals would be a bad thing. Meanwhile, Carl Pohlad made comments that the team has lost $15 million dollars a year for the last four years, the only lie that could be more blatantly obvious would be Britney Spears claming to still be a virgin . How many times can you cry wolf before no one pays attention?
• Not a current news article, but am I the only one who thinks a Corey Patterson for Kyle Lohse trade isn't that bad of an idea, especially with Denard Span looking like the second coming of Otis Nixon?
Kibitz away.
Monday, November 28, 2005
A Field Guide to North American Pitchers: The Perry Burkettium
Introduction: Three and a half centuries ago, Carl Linnaeus set out on a monsterous task of classifying all living creatures. A task so monumental that, to this day, it remains incomplete. Sure pretty much every plant, animal and bacteria has been classified as homo sapien or whatever. But to this days, thousands of poor baseball pitchers have yet to be classified. Which is a pity, because it really shouldn't be that hard to add them to the list.
At the Order level of classification, there are only two groups for North American Pitchers. They're either in the Young Order (re: starters) or the Marberry Order (re: relievers). A pitcher in the Young Order is then divided into one of two Families, the Alexander Family (re: Righties) and the Spahn Family (re: Southpaws). From there, Pitchers are divided into Genu
ses and Species. Today, we'll be taking a closer look at one species of pitcher, the Perry Burkettium, for closer examination.
Overview: The Perry Burkettium (Genus: Perry, Species:Burkett), pictured to the right in it's native environment, is a pitcher common to the back-half of rotations throught the United States and Canada. In 2005, this pitcher could be seen for a small admission charge on mounds in San Francisco, Chicago, and Minnesota, to name but a few.
Identifying traits of the Perry Burkettium: The Perry Burkettium takes belongs to the Perry Genus, generally noted for having straight fastballs a tick abo
ve average that they normally try to get sink on. The Burkett Species from the Perry Genus is easily identifible by several trademarks. Burkett is Baseball speak for a pitcher with a wide variety of average pitches, and for the most part that's how you distinguish the Burkettium from other members of the Perry Genus. Because the Burkettium doesn't do any one thing spectacularly, it needs to rely on good control of its pitches to survive. It doesn't have the pinpoint control of the related Perry Reedus, pictured to the left, and generally is not as successful for that reason.
If you're trying to identify from a stat line, the first place to look is the league ERA section. Generally the Burkettium is generally right at 100 (or league average) in that department. Because the Burkettium by limiting walks, it generally has a good BB/9 rate, and sometimes sneaks into the top-10 in its league in that figure. Its strikeout figures are generally below league average though, so to compensate the Burkettium also can't be too home-run prone. The trademark of the young Burkettium is a general maddening inconsistency. During one start, it will sometimes appear like a much more successful species, disguising itself as a Johnson Clemensius for example. Other times, it will disguise itself as a much less successful specius, say a Tewksberry Lincolnite. Generally these shifts are caused by the quality of the line-up the Burkettium is facing, although often this inconsistency put them in their manager's doghouse.
Images of the Perry Burkettium in the wild: Here are more examples of the Perry Burkettium in its natural habitats.
Trade Value of The Perry Burkettium: Although average in nature, the Perry Burkettium does find itself in demand, especially among teams that rely on weaker pitchers by nature. Here's some examples of trades involving memebers of the Perry Burkettium species:
July 31, 2003: The Pittsburgh Pirates Jeff Suppan, Brandon Lyon and Anastacio Martinez to the Boston Red Sox for Mike Gonzalez, Freddy Sanchez, and cash
February 10, 2000: The Cincinnati Reds Brett Tomko, Jake Meyer, Mike Cameron, and Antonio Perez to the Seattle Mariners for Ken Griffey, Jr.
December 11, 2001: The Seattle Mariners traded Brett Tomko, Tom Lampkin, Ramon Vazquez, and cash to the San Diego Padres for Ben Davis, Alex Arias, and Wascar Serrano.
December 22, 1994: The San Francisco Giants traded John Burkett to the Texas Rangers for Rich Aurilia and Desi Wilson.
November 16, 2002: The Oakland Athletics traded Cory Lidle to the Toronto Blue Jays for Christopher Mowday and Michael Rouse.
August 9, 2004: The Cincinnati Reds traded Cory Lidle to the Philadelphia Phillies for a player to be named later, Javon Moran, and Joe Wilson. The Philadelphia Phillies sent Elizardo Ramirez (August 11, 2004) to the Cincinnati Reds to complete the trade
December 11, 1975: The New York Yankees traded Doc Medich to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Willie Randolph, Ken Brett, and Dock Ellis.
Sometimes, as in the Griffey trade, the Burkettium is packaged to attract something big (although in the Griffey trade, it's important to note that Antonio Perez and Mike Cameron were the keys to the trade). More often than not though, the Burkettium is dealt for one or two B-level prospects. If the Burkettium is dealt for a major league player, that player is generally fairly average itself, although sometimes said player will have some upside to him. That value can also be deceiving if the specium is coming off a surprisingly big year, like the one who threw for the White Sox had this year.
In terms of compensation, the Burkettium usually finds himself in the $3 to $5 million dollar range once mature enough to hit the free agent market.
Exercises for Review:
1. Name one other member of the Perry Burkettium species that wasn't named here.
2. Come up with a fair trade involving a member of the Perry Burkettium Species from the Twins.
At the Order level of classification, there are only two groups for North American Pitchers. They're either in the Young Order (re: starters) or the Marberry Order (re: relievers). A pitcher in the Young Order is then divided into one of two Families, the Alexander Family (re: Righties) and the Spahn Family (re: Southpaws). From there, Pitchers are divided into Genu
ses and Species. Today, we'll be taking a closer look at one species of pitcher, the Perry Burkettium, for closer examination.Overview: The Perry Burkettium (Genus: Perry, Species:Burkett), pictured to the right in it's native environment, is a pitcher common to the back-half of rotations throught the United States and Canada. In 2005, this pitcher could be seen for a small admission charge on mounds in San Francisco, Chicago, and Minnesota, to name but a few.
Identifying traits of the Perry Burkettium: The Perry Burkettium takes belongs to the Perry Genus, generally noted for having straight fastballs a tick abo
ve average that they normally try to get sink on. The Burkett Species from the Perry Genus is easily identifible by several trademarks. Burkett is Baseball speak for a pitcher with a wide variety of average pitches, and for the most part that's how you distinguish the Burkettium from other members of the Perry Genus. Because the Burkettium doesn't do any one thing spectacularly, it needs to rely on good control of its pitches to survive. It doesn't have the pinpoint control of the related Perry Reedus, pictured to the left, and generally is not as successful for that reason.If you're trying to identify from a stat line, the first place to look is the league ERA section. Generally the Burkettium is generally right at 100 (or league average) in that department. Because the Burkettium by limiting walks, it generally has a good BB/9 rate, and sometimes sneaks into the top-10 in its league in that figure. Its strikeout figures are generally below league average though, so to compensate the Burkettium also can't be too home-run prone. The trademark of the young Burkettium is a general maddening inconsistency. During one start, it will sometimes appear like a much more successful species, disguising itself as a Johnson Clemensius for example. Other times, it will disguise itself as a much less successful specius, say a Tewksberry Lincolnite. Generally these shifts are caused by the quality of the line-up the Burkettium is facing, although often this inconsistency put them in their manager's doghouse.
Images of the Perry Burkettium in the wild: Here are more examples of the Perry Burkettium in its natural habitats.
Trade Value of The Perry Burkettium: Although average in nature, the Perry Burkettium does find itself in demand, especially among teams that rely on weaker pitchers by nature. Here's some examples of trades involving memebers of the Perry Burkettium species:
July 31, 2003: The Pittsburgh Pirates Jeff Suppan, Brandon Lyon and Anastacio Martinez to the Boston Red Sox for Mike Gonzalez, Freddy Sanchez, and cash
February 10, 2000: The Cincinnati Reds Brett Tomko, Jake Meyer, Mike Cameron, and Antonio Perez to the Seattle Mariners for Ken Griffey, Jr.
December 11, 2001: The Seattle Mariners traded Brett Tomko, Tom Lampkin, Ramon Vazquez, and cash to the San Diego Padres for Ben Davis, Alex Arias, and Wascar Serrano.
December 22, 1994: The San Francisco Giants traded John Burkett to the Texas Rangers for Rich Aurilia and Desi Wilson.
November 16, 2002: The Oakland Athletics traded Cory Lidle to the Toronto Blue Jays for Christopher Mowday and Michael Rouse.
August 9, 2004: The Cincinnati Reds traded Cory Lidle to the Philadelphia Phillies for a player to be named later, Javon Moran, and Joe Wilson. The Philadelphia Phillies sent Elizardo Ramirez (August 11, 2004) to the Cincinnati Reds to complete the trade
December 11, 1975: The New York Yankees traded Doc Medich to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Willie Randolph, Ken Brett, and Dock Ellis.
Sometimes, as in the Griffey trade, the Burkettium is packaged to attract something big (although in the Griffey trade, it's important to note that Antonio Perez and Mike Cameron were the keys to the trade). More often than not though, the Burkettium is dealt for one or two B-level prospects. If the Burkettium is dealt for a major league player, that player is generally fairly average itself, although sometimes said player will have some upside to him. That value can also be deceiving if the specium is coming off a surprisingly big year, like the one who threw for the White Sox had this year.
In terms of compensation, the Burkettium usually finds himself in the $3 to $5 million dollar range once mature enough to hit the free agent market.
Exercises for Review:
1. Name one other member of the Perry Burkettium species that wasn't named here.
2. Come up with a fair trade involving a member of the Perry Burkettium Species from the Twins.
Tuesday, November 22, 2005
Organization Report: Second Base
ed note. Sorry I didn't post this sooner to keep the debate flowing.
Key
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
The Cast
Nick Punto
DOB—11-8-1977 AGE: 27
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Trade with Philadelphia, 2003
Career Stats
Luis Rivas
DOB—8-31-1979 AGE: 26
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 1995
Career Stats
Luis Rodriguez
DOB—6-27-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 199723
Career Stats
Brent Abernathy
DOB—9-23-1977 AGE: 28
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Luis Maza
DOB—6-22-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 1998
Career Stats
Felix Molina
DOB—5-5-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 21st round, 2001
Career Stats
Jake Mauer
DOB—12-20-1978 AGE: 26
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 23rd round, 2001
Career Stats
Tommy Watkins
DOB—6-18-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 38th Round, 1998
Career Stats
Kaulana Kuhaulua
DOB—1-30-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 12th Round, 2002
Career Stats
Luke Hughes
DOB—8-2-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2002
Career Stats
Paul Rutgers
DOB—1-17-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2001
Career Stats
Juan Portes
DOB—11-26-1985 AGE: 19
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 15th Round, 2004
Career Stats
Drew Thompson
DOB—11-7-1986 AGE: 18
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 2nd Round Supplemental, 2005
Career Stats
Michael Lysaught
DOB—9-30-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2003
Career Stats
Odannys Valdez
DOB—5-9-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2002
Career Stats
The Skinny
The great thing about Word is the built-in Thesaurus. If you don’t think a word, any word, say “horrific” for example, it will give you a boatload of alternatives. Ghastly. Shocking. Appalling. Sickening. Gruesome. Dreadful. The problem is going down the entire list of these words, not one of them sums up how bad Nick Punto was last season accurately enough. Punto clocked in with some of the worst numbers a Twins’ starting second baseman has put up since the Steve Lombardozzi era. At the plate, his VORP clocked in at-0.4. What does that mean, per se? That just about any Augie Ojeda or Michael Moriarty could have come up and given the same effort at the plate that Punto did last year.
This, my friends, is where the Twins’ offensive problems start.
That’s not to say Punto is waste of a bench spot. He brings some assets to the table that the other middle infielders don’t His glove is a redeeming quality, and he’s able to play a strong shortstop. A good second base. He can also play all three outfield spots. Punto is also legitimately fast for a white boy, which isn’t as big of an insult as it was a decade ago, and can swipe a base when needed. In those ways, he’s a better version of Denny Hocking. The only problem is he’s kind of like Homer Simpson in the episode of the Simpsons where he becomes a boxer. Hitting just isn’t his thing. And when you ask too much of him bad things happen, just like what happened to Homer in his Dredrick Tatum fight. Which makes it odd that Gardenhire didn’t lose patience with Punto last year. In fact, quite the opposite happened. Instead, Gardenhire decided the best course of action was to stick him in the #2 spot, where he’d get more chances to showcase his mediocrity.
Though in many ways, it wasn’t Punto’s fault. If Luis Rivas didn’t think sloth was far and away the best Seven Deadly sin, Punto likely wouldn’t have been more than a utility man last year. And Rivas likely wouldn’t be looking for work right now, probably in a Jim Bowden run organization. But still, Gardenhire has to take a lion’s share of the blame for sticking with Punto (when better internal options existed) , because that was one of the biggest factors in the Twins decline last year. While one player can’t make the difference between complete failure and success, it can often mean the difference between mediocrity and success. Sub in Orlando Hudson for Punto last year and you’re looking at a gain of 4 or 5 wins, which suddenly puts the team at 87 to 88 wins. Sub in a true All-Star at second, and you’re looking at a gain of 10 wins, which while still being a bigger long shot than picking the right number on a roulette wheel, does lend some credence to hoping Bret Boone could rebound in Minnesota. That said, Boone’s Robbie Alomar impersonation didn’t help matters any.
To put a lot of words into a quick summary, this is a position where something needs to be done. If Punto is the starting second sacker come April. I prescribe a heavy dose of rum and cokes, hold the coke.
That said, even if every free agent spurns Minnesota, there are internal options that are better solutions than Punto. Brent Abernathy is one. He’s added a good deal of sock since the days when he washed out with the Devil Rays, and is deserving of a second shot. In fact, if he hadn’t gotten hurt shortly after his call-up, he may have had this starting position locked up. Abernathy is a lot like a Mark Loretta/Ron Belliard kind of player. He has a little bit of pop, knows the strike zone, steals bases well, and plays defense. What he needs is an extended shot at second base. Outrighted by the Twins at the beginning of October, if I were his agent I’d recommend he stuck around the organization. With the black hole still looming at the position, he’ll probably get another chance.
Luis Rodriguez also outplayed Punto last year, in part because he hit for average and Punto didn’t. In many ways though, Punto and L-Rod are the same players, with the difference being Punto is a lot faster and L-Rod is a lot less prone to the strikeout, which probably makes L-Rod a better bet to hit for average at the major league level. A good comp for Rodriguez may be a player like Mark Ellis, and given L-Rod’s increase in doubles the last couple of years, there may be a power spike coming his way too.
There is a bright side to this though. Unlike catcher or first base, you can point your fingers on to a few prospects who could be very legitimate. But then again, the best of them are a little too far down the system to get overly excited.
Luis Maza was one of the few second baseman who played at Rochester who didn’t get a shot in Minnesota last year. But it wasn’t because of his numbers. Over the last two years, Maza has developed a good deal of pop, going from 5 to 12 to 17 homeruns over the last three years. His PECOTA comp who had the best career is David Bell, But someone like Mark Lewis may be a better comparison. The biggest thing to worry about with Maza is whether or not he’d be an OBP sinkhole in Minnesota.
Felix Molina has been something of a stealth prospect. The Twins drafted three Puerto Ricans in the 2001 draft—Angel Garcia, Jose Morales and Molina. The beauty of the draft is who believed Molina would be the furthest along four years later? Molina’s biggest strength is that he’s fairly average across the board, meaning he doesn’t have one great strength but he isn’t really crippled by any weakness either. His second biggest strength is that he’s only 22, and has some room to improve.
There’s probably a certain bit of nepotism involved with Jake Mauer. But he did inherit his brother’s smarts at the plate and if there’s anything the Twins need it’s more smart hitters in the minors. Tis a shame he didn’t inherit his brother’s bat speed, though.
Unlike the other two second baseman who played above him at New Britain, Tommy Watkins does have one major asset going for him in his speed, and has done a decent job controlling the strike zone in recent years. He also plays shortstop and third baseman, so he has a better shot than Molina or Mauer of landing a utility role. Then again, given the number of those types of players in the Twins’ system, you’d be forgiven if you thought the Twins had a Jango Fett they were cloning in some secret facility in Fort Myers, producing the future genereations of Nick Puntos and Cleatus Davidsons for the team to use.
If we were grading people on the coolness of their names, Kaulana Kuhaulua would be Kaulana Kuhaulua. But we aren’t. And instead Kuhaulua needs to get healthy and establish himself in the high minors.
If Paul Rutgers could keep putting up years like he did at age-19 in the GCL, he’d be in the majors pretty soon. If Tommy Tutone could keep putting out songs like 867—5309 (Jenny) he’d be in the Rock n’ Roll Hall of Fame. Unfortunately both of them are shaping up to be one-hit wonders.
Fellow Australian Luke Hughes, however, right now is in a position to be more of a two-hit wonder, like the Outfield or .38 Special. His only down year in the system, in fact, was last year. Some people say the hardest jump in the minors is the one from Single-A to Double-A. But the jump from short-season to full-season ball seems to kill off more prospects. Hughes has some talents, notably a solid line-drive bat that was once compared to Joe Randa’s and a little bit of pop. But he’ll need to adjust to full-season ball to get there.
Likewise, a lot of the things that came into play with Hughes moving to full-season now come into play for Juan Portes this season. Given Portes’ success in his first two minor-league seasons, you hope and pray he survives the jump. But you also have to have in the back of your head players like Ruben Salazar who didn’t. There are clear differences between Salazar and Portes that favor the current Twin prospect. Portes is a lot younger than Salazar was when he hit .401 for Elizabtheton back in 1999. Portes also has two big seasons under his belt now, whereas Salazar only slugged .348 in the GCL before his breakout. One of the key tenants of a book like Moneyball to remember is that the further a prospect is from the Majors, the foggier your tea leaves need to be on him. Portes has more upside than any hitter in the organization. That said, Elizabethton is a long ways from Minneapolis. Be cautiously optimistic.
The same things can be said about Drew Thompson, who’s high ceiling is probably pretty close to the slick fielding second-baseman with some pop that his father was.
Of the other second-basemen who played at, Odannys Valdez is worth noting for his speed and on-base percentage combo and Michael Lysaught is worth mentioning because, well, it’s hard not to like those Aussies.
Jewscott Ranks the Prospects
1. Juan Portes
2. Drew Thompson
3. Luis Maza
4. Luke Hughes
5. Felix Molina
6. Odannys Valdez
Questions for Discussion
1. How big of a problem was Nick Punto at second base? And what are the implications if he starts at second for the Twins in 2006
2. How were the Twins able to stay competitive with an offensive hole like Rivas at second, but not with one like Punto?
3. Can a solution to the second base problem be as simple as a healthy Brent Abernathy? Or does the team need more?
4. Same question, substitute Luis Rodriguez for Abernathy.
5. If thrown into the job, can Luis Maza succeed and why?
6. Who is the Twins top second base prospect?
7. On a scale from 1-10, how do you rank the team’s depth at this position?
Key
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
The Cast
Nick Punto
DOB—11-8-1977 AGE: 27
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Trade with Philadelphia, 2003
Career Stats
Luis Rivas
DOB—8-31-1979 AGE: 26
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 1995
Career Stats
Luis Rodriguez
DOB—6-27-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 199723
Career Stats
Brent Abernathy
DOB—9-23-1977 AGE: 28
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Luis Maza
DOB—6-22-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 1998
Career Stats
Felix Molina
DOB—5-5-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 21st round, 2001
Career Stats
Jake Mauer
DOB—12-20-1978 AGE: 26
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 23rd round, 2001
Career Stats
Tommy Watkins
DOB—6-18-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 38th Round, 1998
Career Stats
Kaulana Kuhaulua
DOB—1-30-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 12th Round, 2002
Career Stats
Luke Hughes
DOB—8-2-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2002
Career Stats
Paul Rutgers
DOB—1-17-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2001
Career Stats
Juan Portes
DOB—11-26-1985 AGE: 19
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 15th Round, 2004
Career Stats
Drew Thompson
DOB—11-7-1986 AGE: 18
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 2nd Round Supplemental, 2005
Career Stats
Michael Lysaught
DOB—9-30-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2003
Career Stats
Odannys Valdez
DOB—5-9-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2002
Career Stats
The Skinny
The great thing about Word is the built-in Thesaurus. If you don’t think a word, any word, say “horrific” for example, it will give you a boatload of alternatives. Ghastly. Shocking. Appalling. Sickening. Gruesome. Dreadful. The problem is going down the entire list of these words, not one of them sums up how bad Nick Punto was last season accurately enough. Punto clocked in with some of the worst numbers a Twins’ starting second baseman has put up since the Steve Lombardozzi era. At the plate, his VORP clocked in at-0.4. What does that mean, per se? That just about any Augie Ojeda or Michael Moriarty could have come up and given the same effort at the plate that Punto did last year.
This, my friends, is where the Twins’ offensive problems start.
That’s not to say Punto is waste of a bench spot. He brings some assets to the table that the other middle infielders don’t His glove is a redeeming quality, and he’s able to play a strong shortstop. A good second base. He can also play all three outfield spots. Punto is also legitimately fast for a white boy, which isn’t as big of an insult as it was a decade ago, and can swipe a base when needed. In those ways, he’s a better version of Denny Hocking. The only problem is he’s kind of like Homer Simpson in the episode of the Simpsons where he becomes a boxer. Hitting just isn’t his thing. And when you ask too much of him bad things happen, just like what happened to Homer in his Dredrick Tatum fight. Which makes it odd that Gardenhire didn’t lose patience with Punto last year. In fact, quite the opposite happened. Instead, Gardenhire decided the best course of action was to stick him in the #2 spot, where he’d get more chances to showcase his mediocrity.
Though in many ways, it wasn’t Punto’s fault. If Luis Rivas didn’t think sloth was far and away the best Seven Deadly sin, Punto likely wouldn’t have been more than a utility man last year. And Rivas likely wouldn’t be looking for work right now, probably in a Jim Bowden run organization. But still, Gardenhire has to take a lion’s share of the blame for sticking with Punto (when better internal options existed) , because that was one of the biggest factors in the Twins decline last year. While one player can’t make the difference between complete failure and success, it can often mean the difference between mediocrity and success. Sub in Orlando Hudson for Punto last year and you’re looking at a gain of 4 or 5 wins, which suddenly puts the team at 87 to 88 wins. Sub in a true All-Star at second, and you’re looking at a gain of 10 wins, which while still being a bigger long shot than picking the right number on a roulette wheel, does lend some credence to hoping Bret Boone could rebound in Minnesota. That said, Boone’s Robbie Alomar impersonation didn’t help matters any.
To put a lot of words into a quick summary, this is a position where something needs to be done. If Punto is the starting second sacker come April. I prescribe a heavy dose of rum and cokes, hold the coke.
That said, even if every free agent spurns Minnesota, there are internal options that are better solutions than Punto. Brent Abernathy is one. He’s added a good deal of sock since the days when he washed out with the Devil Rays, and is deserving of a second shot. In fact, if he hadn’t gotten hurt shortly after his call-up, he may have had this starting position locked up. Abernathy is a lot like a Mark Loretta/Ron Belliard kind of player. He has a little bit of pop, knows the strike zone, steals bases well, and plays defense. What he needs is an extended shot at second base. Outrighted by the Twins at the beginning of October, if I were his agent I’d recommend he stuck around the organization. With the black hole still looming at the position, he’ll probably get another chance.
Luis Rodriguez also outplayed Punto last year, in part because he hit for average and Punto didn’t. In many ways though, Punto and L-Rod are the same players, with the difference being Punto is a lot faster and L-Rod is a lot less prone to the strikeout, which probably makes L-Rod a better bet to hit for average at the major league level. A good comp for Rodriguez may be a player like Mark Ellis, and given L-Rod’s increase in doubles the last couple of years, there may be a power spike coming his way too.
There is a bright side to this though. Unlike catcher or first base, you can point your fingers on to a few prospects who could be very legitimate. But then again, the best of them are a little too far down the system to get overly excited.
Luis Maza was one of the few second baseman who played at Rochester who didn’t get a shot in Minnesota last year. But it wasn’t because of his numbers. Over the last two years, Maza has developed a good deal of pop, going from 5 to 12 to 17 homeruns over the last three years. His PECOTA comp who had the best career is David Bell, But someone like Mark Lewis may be a better comparison. The biggest thing to worry about with Maza is whether or not he’d be an OBP sinkhole in Minnesota.
Felix Molina has been something of a stealth prospect. The Twins drafted three Puerto Ricans in the 2001 draft—Angel Garcia, Jose Morales and Molina. The beauty of the draft is who believed Molina would be the furthest along four years later? Molina’s biggest strength is that he’s fairly average across the board, meaning he doesn’t have one great strength but he isn’t really crippled by any weakness either. His second biggest strength is that he’s only 22, and has some room to improve.
There’s probably a certain bit of nepotism involved with Jake Mauer. But he did inherit his brother’s smarts at the plate and if there’s anything the Twins need it’s more smart hitters in the minors. Tis a shame he didn’t inherit his brother’s bat speed, though.
Unlike the other two second baseman who played above him at New Britain, Tommy Watkins does have one major asset going for him in his speed, and has done a decent job controlling the strike zone in recent years. He also plays shortstop and third baseman, so he has a better shot than Molina or Mauer of landing a utility role. Then again, given the number of those types of players in the Twins’ system, you’d be forgiven if you thought the Twins had a Jango Fett they were cloning in some secret facility in Fort Myers, producing the future genereations of Nick Puntos and Cleatus Davidsons for the team to use.
If we were grading people on the coolness of their names, Kaulana Kuhaulua would be Kaulana Kuhaulua. But we aren’t. And instead Kuhaulua needs to get healthy and establish himself in the high minors.
If Paul Rutgers could keep putting up years like he did at age-19 in the GCL, he’d be in the majors pretty soon. If Tommy Tutone could keep putting out songs like 867—5309 (Jenny) he’d be in the Rock n’ Roll Hall of Fame. Unfortunately both of them are shaping up to be one-hit wonders.
Fellow Australian Luke Hughes, however, right now is in a position to be more of a two-hit wonder, like the Outfield or .38 Special. His only down year in the system, in fact, was last year. Some people say the hardest jump in the minors is the one from Single-A to Double-A. But the jump from short-season to full-season ball seems to kill off more prospects. Hughes has some talents, notably a solid line-drive bat that was once compared to Joe Randa’s and a little bit of pop. But he’ll need to adjust to full-season ball to get there.
Likewise, a lot of the things that came into play with Hughes moving to full-season now come into play for Juan Portes this season. Given Portes’ success in his first two minor-league seasons, you hope and pray he survives the jump. But you also have to have in the back of your head players like Ruben Salazar who didn’t. There are clear differences between Salazar and Portes that favor the current Twin prospect. Portes is a lot younger than Salazar was when he hit .401 for Elizabtheton back in 1999. Portes also has two big seasons under his belt now, whereas Salazar only slugged .348 in the GCL before his breakout. One of the key tenants of a book like Moneyball to remember is that the further a prospect is from the Majors, the foggier your tea leaves need to be on him. Portes has more upside than any hitter in the organization. That said, Elizabethton is a long ways from Minneapolis. Be cautiously optimistic.
The same things can be said about Drew Thompson, who’s high ceiling is probably pretty close to the slick fielding second-baseman with some pop that his father was.
Of the other second-basemen who played at, Odannys Valdez is worth noting for his speed and on-base percentage combo and Michael Lysaught is worth mentioning because, well, it’s hard not to like those Aussies.
Jewscott Ranks the Prospects
1. Juan Portes
2. Drew Thompson
3. Luis Maza
4. Luke Hughes
5. Felix Molina
6. Odannys Valdez
Questions for Discussion
1. How big of a problem was Nick Punto at second base? And what are the implications if he starts at second for the Twins in 2006
2. How were the Twins able to stay competitive with an offensive hole like Rivas at second, but not with one like Punto?
3. Can a solution to the second base problem be as simple as a healthy Brent Abernathy? Or does the team need more?
4. Same question, substitute Luis Rodriguez for Abernathy.
5. If thrown into the job, can Luis Maza succeed and why?
6. Who is the Twins top second base prospect?
7. On a scale from 1-10, how do you rank the team’s depth at this position?
Monday, November 21, 2005
A Pre-Thanksgiving Prayer
Greetings from scenic Eugene, Oregon. Home of the 10-1 Oregon Ducks. I've been here the last couple of days, and my thoughts have been far removed from baseball. Sorry about that. But Civil War tickets will make a man do crazy things.
I should have something to write before Thanksgiving. But until then, I'm blogging in hopes of helping Peter Gammons be right for once. Thereby keeping Charley Waters wrong.
The real question though is "What would you offer for Hank Blalock?"
I should have something to write before Thanksgiving. But until then, I'm blogging in hopes of helping Peter Gammons be right for once. Thereby keeping Charley Waters wrong.
The real question though is "What would you offer for Hank Blalock?"
Wednesday, November 16, 2005
Organization Report: First Base
The Organization—First Basemen
Key
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
The Players
Justin Morneau
DOB—5-15-1981 AGE: 24
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted, 3rd Round 1999
Career Stats
Matt LeCroy
DOB: 12-13-1975 AGE:29
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted, 1st Round Supplemental, 1997
Career Stats
Garrett Jones
DOB 6-21-1981 AGE: 24
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent, 2001
Career Stats
Luis Jimenez
DOB: 5-7-1982 AGE: 23
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Danny Matienzo
DOB: 9-33-1980 AGE: 24
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted, 23rd round , 2002
Career Stats
Brock Peterson
DOB: 10-20-1983 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 49th Round, 2002
Career Stats
Johnny Woodard
DOB: 9-15-84 AGE: 21
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired, Drafted 3rd Round 2003
Career Stats
Chris Brown
DOB: 12-28-1982 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Undrafted FA, 2004
Career Stats
Erik Lis
DOB:3-8-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired: Drafted 9th Round 2005
Career Stats
Dustin Bensko
DOB: 3-6-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Undrafted Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Henry Sanchez
DOB: 11-29-1986 AGE: 18
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round Supplemental, 2005
Career Stats
Joshua Dean
DOB:12-24-1986 AGE: 18
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2004
Career Stats
Marion Knowles
DOB: 3-08-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Undrafted Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
The Skinny
Fluke or Future? For the Twins organization, that’s the $64,000 question.
12 months ago to the day, Justin Morneau seemed to be on the verge of blowing up. He’d just finished a second half in the majors where he’d hit 19 homeruns, which combined with 22 in the minors for 41 total on the year. He slugged .536. Got on-base at a .340 clip. Basically, he was everything the Twins had been looking for in a first baseman since Kent Hrbek. Hrbek, in fact, was Morneau’s #1 PECOTA comp coming into the year. #2 was Ryan Klesko. #3, Mark Teixeria. If you’re reading this, you know things didn’t work out quite as planned.
It’s two names further down the list that are more intriguing in guessing what might happen to Morneau. #11 on the list is Paul Konerko. #18 is Ben Grieve. In 2003, Konerko had a year that can best be described as god-awful, putting up a .234/.305/.399 season for reasons that can’t quite be explained. But it turned out to be just a blip on the radar screen, and Konerko rebounded with a .277/.359/.535 season in ’04. In 2001, Ben Grieve suffered into the same kind of malaise—dropping from a .279/.359/.487 line in 2000 to a .264/.372/.387 one. Blood clot problems and a feud with Lou Pinella killed off a promising career.
So which one is Justin “Prone to every disease outside of leprosy” Morneau? In all honesty, I don’t know. And I don’t think the Twins do either. It could have been major league pitchers caught up to him. It could have been bone chips in his left elbow. It could have been a mild case of the bubonic plague. It could have been a combination of the three. In truth, it really doesn’t matter what it was though. What does matter is that whatever it is its gone by April. Because Joe Mauer doesn’t pull the ball enough to be a legit clean-up hitter. And Torii Hunter doesn’t have enough do enough at the dish either. And the $5 million dollars that Terry Ryan isn’t going to buy that player on the open market. How far the Twins go in 2006 will depend on how well Morneau hits. Now for the real question. How much does that scare you?
It would seem fit that this would be the time to write a sad eulogy for Matt LeCroy. Except it’s hard to feel sad for a guy who’s probably going to a better place. With his heavy lefty platoon split and improving plate discipline, it won’t take long for a Moneyball organization to swoop in and pick him up. He’ll never be an elite starter. But to a smart GM, he’ll be a very valuable tool in hurtling a team into contention.
When you start looking through the minor leaguers, well there’s good news and bad news. The good news, to steal a line from Peter Le Fleur in Dodgeball, we don’t know who our best first base prospect is yet. It could be any one of them. The bad news? Um, it could be none of them.
Garrett Jones is on the 40 –Man roster. But the big question is for how much longer?. Right now, he’s a one-tool player—that tool being very good power. Outside of that he doesn’t hit for a respectable average, a long-swing makes him susceptible to good fastballs, and he's something of a liability on defense. Though he does make the most of the speed he has. The biggest flaw in his game though is that a ,297 on-base percentage in Rochester translates to “I didn’t think it was possible to have a lower OBP than Juan Castro” in Minnesota. Without improvement in that area, he’s doomed to have Bernardo Brito’s career.
Danny Matienzo got most of the attention this year at New Britain, but Luis Jimenez may be the better in the long run. Both of them probably outdistance Jones at this point, though. To Matienzo’s credit, all he’s done is hit since he joined the system. And he did it again in the high minors. The question is does he have the power spike in him that it’s going to take to make him useful in a LeCroy-type role at the majors. I’m going to guess no, but I’ve been wrong before. Jimenez was once a top-prospect in the Orioles system a long,long time ago in a galaxy far, far away—rating as their #4 prospect back in 2002. From a pure scouting standpoint, he has the fluid swing that suggests there could be a breakout down the road. Whether or not he does it in the Twins organization, that’s a different story, as he’s a Minor League Free Agent again next year.
Brock Peterson had an interesting year at Ft. Myers, mainly because you don’t expect to see a power spike in the cavernous ballparks in the Florida State League. He has a good idea of the strike-zone and as you’d expect from a former third baseman a fair amount of athleticism. And even if he doesn’t consolidate his power spike at New Britain next year, you still have to give him credit for being in the 90th percentile for 49th round draft picks.
Johnny Woodard was the Twins’ best first base prospect coming into the year, and probably is the Twins’ best first base prospect again this year by default. The gap by which he’s the team’s best first base prospect has been narrowed considerably, mind you. But still, while his numbers at Beloit were bad this year, you can at least point out that the broken ankle he suffered in early April may have been a reason for it. Plus, he didn’t even hit the legal drinking age until after his season was over. If he’s hitting over .300 with little power next year at Ft. Myers, it’s a good sign he’s having a bounce-back season. If he hits over .300 with good power, it’s a better sign. If he has problems making contact next year, no matter how much power he shows, it’s really not a good sign for him making the jump to AA.
Chris Brown filled in for Woodard while he was hurt, and hit well enough to get another shot to prove himself if he wants it. Dustin Bensko and Marion Knowles should take note should they get the same opportunity.
Erik Lis had a big season in Elizabethton, but there’s a certain artificial beauty to it for a couple of reasons. Bensko did most of the heavy lifting against left-handed pitchers for one. And while Lis’ OPS was .032 points higher than his predecessor at Elizabethton, he was also two years older than Woodard was last season too. It’s not uncommon for a college-trained hitter to beat up on younger pitchers in his first season before fading into obscurity. So he really can’t afford to slip up at Beloit next season. Ratcheting up his K/BB ratio would help make that possible.
It was suppose to be easier for Henry Sanchez than this. The average 18 year-old GCL pitcher was suppose to take one look at the supplemental first rounder’s 6’3” 265 lbs frame and just toss the ball over the fence himself for a homerun. It didn’t quite work that way though. Sanchez did redeem himself some with a big last week of the season that can only make you hope that his inability to touch anything the month before was just a severe case of rust. He still was Baseball America’s top high school power prospect in last year’s draft though. And the Twins did give him an awful lot of money to join the organization. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of turning it into results. If you start hearing good things about him coming from instructional league and he starts next year in Beloit, bump him up a grade.
On the flip side, Joshua Dean had a big first season for the Twins. Anytime a hitter walks more than he strikes out it’s a good sign. The Aussie needs to hit for a bit more power though, because a first baseman with .066 Isolated Power from is about as likely to get a look at the major league level as a one-armed, albino eunuch is to get a look from Pamela Anderson. He is however 18, and power is generally the last tool to develop. So don't take it like I'm damning Dean yet.
Jewscott's Prospect Rankings
1. Johnny Woodard
2. Henry Sanchez
3. Luis Jiminez
4. Joshua Dean
5. Erik Lis
6. Danny Matienzo
7. Garrett Jones
Questions for debate
1. Bum elbow or Bum plate coverage? Which one did in Morneau last year?
2. Do you believe Morneau can bounce back?
3. Should the Twins have kept LeCroy or was letting him go the right decision?
4. The Twins sent Garrett Jones to the AFL. Are they giving him more respect as a prospect than he deserves?
5. Who doyou think is the best first base prospect in the system?
6. On a scale from 1 to 10, how do you rate the Twins depth at this position?
Key
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
The Players
Justin Morneau
DOB—5-15-1981 AGE: 24
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted, 3rd Round 1999
Career Stats
Matt LeCroy
DOB: 12-13-1975 AGE:29
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted, 1st Round Supplemental, 1997
Career Stats
Garrett Jones
DOB 6-21-1981 AGE: 24
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent, 2001
Career Stats
Luis Jimenez
DOB: 5-7-1982 AGE: 23
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Danny Matienzo
DOB: 9-33-1980 AGE: 24
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted, 23rd round , 2002
Career Stats
Brock Peterson
DOB: 10-20-1983 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 49th Round, 2002
Career Stats
Johnny Woodard
DOB: 9-15-84 AGE: 21
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired, Drafted 3rd Round 2003
Career Stats
Chris Brown
DOB: 12-28-1982 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Undrafted FA, 2004
Career Stats
Erik Lis
DOB:3-8-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired: Drafted 9th Round 2005
Career Stats
Dustin Bensko
DOB: 3-6-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Undrafted Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Henry Sanchez
DOB: 11-29-1986 AGE: 18
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round Supplemental, 2005
Career Stats
Joshua Dean
DOB:12-24-1986 AGE: 18
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2004
Career Stats
Marion Knowles
DOB: 3-08-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Undrafted Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
The Skinny
Fluke or Future? For the Twins organization, that’s the $64,000 question.
12 months ago to the day, Justin Morneau seemed to be on the verge of blowing up. He’d just finished a second half in the majors where he’d hit 19 homeruns, which combined with 22 in the minors for 41 total on the year. He slugged .536. Got on-base at a .340 clip. Basically, he was everything the Twins had been looking for in a first baseman since Kent Hrbek. Hrbek, in fact, was Morneau’s #1 PECOTA comp coming into the year. #2 was Ryan Klesko. #3, Mark Teixeria. If you’re reading this, you know things didn’t work out quite as planned.
It’s two names further down the list that are more intriguing in guessing what might happen to Morneau. #11 on the list is Paul Konerko. #18 is Ben Grieve. In 2003, Konerko had a year that can best be described as god-awful, putting up a .234/.305/.399 season for reasons that can’t quite be explained. But it turned out to be just a blip on the radar screen, and Konerko rebounded with a .277/.359/.535 season in ’04. In 2001, Ben Grieve suffered into the same kind of malaise—dropping from a .279/.359/.487 line in 2000 to a .264/.372/.387 one. Blood clot problems and a feud with Lou Pinella killed off a promising career.
So which one is Justin “Prone to every disease outside of leprosy” Morneau? In all honesty, I don’t know. And I don’t think the Twins do either. It could have been major league pitchers caught up to him. It could have been bone chips in his left elbow. It could have been a mild case of the bubonic plague. It could have been a combination of the three. In truth, it really doesn’t matter what it was though. What does matter is that whatever it is its gone by April. Because Joe Mauer doesn’t pull the ball enough to be a legit clean-up hitter. And Torii Hunter doesn’t have enough do enough at the dish either. And the $5 million dollars that Terry Ryan isn’t going to buy that player on the open market. How far the Twins go in 2006 will depend on how well Morneau hits. Now for the real question. How much does that scare you?
It would seem fit that this would be the time to write a sad eulogy for Matt LeCroy. Except it’s hard to feel sad for a guy who’s probably going to a better place. With his heavy lefty platoon split and improving plate discipline, it won’t take long for a Moneyball organization to swoop in and pick him up. He’ll never be an elite starter. But to a smart GM, he’ll be a very valuable tool in hurtling a team into contention.
When you start looking through the minor leaguers, well there’s good news and bad news. The good news, to steal a line from Peter Le Fleur in Dodgeball, we don’t know who our best first base prospect is yet. It could be any one of them. The bad news? Um, it could be none of them.
Garrett Jones is on the 40 –Man roster. But the big question is for how much longer?. Right now, he’s a one-tool player—that tool being very good power. Outside of that he doesn’t hit for a respectable average, a long-swing makes him susceptible to good fastballs, and he's something of a liability on defense. Though he does make the most of the speed he has. The biggest flaw in his game though is that a ,297 on-base percentage in Rochester translates to “I didn’t think it was possible to have a lower OBP than Juan Castro” in Minnesota. Without improvement in that area, he’s doomed to have Bernardo Brito’s career.
Danny Matienzo got most of the attention this year at New Britain, but Luis Jimenez may be the better in the long run. Both of them probably outdistance Jones at this point, though. To Matienzo’s credit, all he’s done is hit since he joined the system. And he did it again in the high minors. The question is does he have the power spike in him that it’s going to take to make him useful in a LeCroy-type role at the majors. I’m going to guess no, but I’ve been wrong before. Jimenez was once a top-prospect in the Orioles system a long,long time ago in a galaxy far, far away—rating as their #4 prospect back in 2002. From a pure scouting standpoint, he has the fluid swing that suggests there could be a breakout down the road. Whether or not he does it in the Twins organization, that’s a different story, as he’s a Minor League Free Agent again next year.
Brock Peterson had an interesting year at Ft. Myers, mainly because you don’t expect to see a power spike in the cavernous ballparks in the Florida State League. He has a good idea of the strike-zone and as you’d expect from a former third baseman a fair amount of athleticism. And even if he doesn’t consolidate his power spike at New Britain next year, you still have to give him credit for being in the 90th percentile for 49th round draft picks.
Johnny Woodard was the Twins’ best first base prospect coming into the year, and probably is the Twins’ best first base prospect again this year by default. The gap by which he’s the team’s best first base prospect has been narrowed considerably, mind you. But still, while his numbers at Beloit were bad this year, you can at least point out that the broken ankle he suffered in early April may have been a reason for it. Plus, he didn’t even hit the legal drinking age until after his season was over. If he’s hitting over .300 with little power next year at Ft. Myers, it’s a good sign he’s having a bounce-back season. If he hits over .300 with good power, it’s a better sign. If he has problems making contact next year, no matter how much power he shows, it’s really not a good sign for him making the jump to AA.
Chris Brown filled in for Woodard while he was hurt, and hit well enough to get another shot to prove himself if he wants it. Dustin Bensko and Marion Knowles should take note should they get the same opportunity.
Erik Lis had a big season in Elizabethton, but there’s a certain artificial beauty to it for a couple of reasons. Bensko did most of the heavy lifting against left-handed pitchers for one. And while Lis’ OPS was .032 points higher than his predecessor at Elizabethton, he was also two years older than Woodard was last season too. It’s not uncommon for a college-trained hitter to beat up on younger pitchers in his first season before fading into obscurity. So he really can’t afford to slip up at Beloit next season. Ratcheting up his K/BB ratio would help make that possible.
It was suppose to be easier for Henry Sanchez than this. The average 18 year-old GCL pitcher was suppose to take one look at the supplemental first rounder’s 6’3” 265 lbs frame and just toss the ball over the fence himself for a homerun. It didn’t quite work that way though. Sanchez did redeem himself some with a big last week of the season that can only make you hope that his inability to touch anything the month before was just a severe case of rust. He still was Baseball America’s top high school power prospect in last year’s draft though. And the Twins did give him an awful lot of money to join the organization. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of turning it into results. If you start hearing good things about him coming from instructional league and he starts next year in Beloit, bump him up a grade.
On the flip side, Joshua Dean had a big first season for the Twins. Anytime a hitter walks more than he strikes out it’s a good sign. The Aussie needs to hit for a bit more power though, because a first baseman with .066 Isolated Power from is about as likely to get a look at the major league level as a one-armed, albino eunuch is to get a look from Pamela Anderson. He is however 18, and power is generally the last tool to develop. So don't take it like I'm damning Dean yet.
Jewscott's Prospect Rankings
1. Johnny Woodard
2. Henry Sanchez
3. Luis Jiminez
4. Joshua Dean
5. Erik Lis
6. Danny Matienzo
7. Garrett Jones
Questions for debate
1. Bum elbow or Bum plate coverage? Which one did in Morneau last year?
2. Do you believe Morneau can bounce back?
3. Should the Twins have kept LeCroy or was letting him go the right decision?
4. The Twins sent Garrett Jones to the AFL. Are they giving him more respect as a prospect than he deserves?
5. Who doyou think is the best first base prospect in the system?
6. On a scale from 1 to 10, how do you rate the Twins depth at this position?
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