This weekend, football geeks have their annual wet dream—the NFL Player Draft. Us baseball geeks have to wait another month to have our wet dream. But why let the football geeks have all the fun in speculating what their team is going to do?
Unfortunately, we have to wait until June 6th to see who the Twins take with the 20th overall pick, But it’s not too early to start speculating who that pick will be.
• University of Minnesota LHP John Gaub might have been the pick. But he hasn’t really been healthy so far this spring, logging only 16.1 innings so far for the Gophers staff. He has an electric left arm, touching 95 mph with his fastball when healthy. But more questions are starting to pop up as to whether he’ll be able to hold up as a starter. I’d still figure the Twins wind up picking him up at some point in the draft. It just won’t be in the first round.
• It has been 10 years since the Twins last took a college position player in the first round. That may change this year. Two college third basemen might be of some interest to the Twins when their pick comes around—Wes Hodges from Georgia Tech and Matt Antonelli from Wake Forest. Hodges is one of the better college hitters available in the draft, and should hit for power and average in the pros. He hit .309 while using a wood bat for Team USA last summer, so there shouldn’t be much of an adjustment. Antonelli isn’t the hitter that Hodges is, but he’s a much better athlete and has more likely to be a defensive asset at the position. Antonelli also is known for his great strike zone judgement, and has done a good job answering the one lingering question about his lack of power by hitting 11 homeruns so far this season. His stock is definitely on the rise.
• As far as high school hitting prospects, it’s hard to tell how things are shaking out. Most of the prep player are struggling, and it’s hard to tell who would be there when the Twins pick and who wouldn’t. Chris Marrero is the exception to this, but then again his combination of power and potential to be a Gold Glove third baseman should have him well off the board by the time the Twins pick. That leaves a couple of OF/1B in Cody Johnson and Chris Parmalee. The knock on both of them is that they’re more likely to be first basemen than outfielders. And you really have to be able to hit to be a first base prospect. Both of them can, but they have their knocks too. Parmalee has a picture-perfect left hand stroke, but it’s a level swing and you have to question how many homers he’ll hit. Johnson is Parmalee’s evil twin. Nobody hits the ball farther than Johnson in the 2006 draft, He’s also the kind of hitter who will strike out a ton, and he may not be able to hit for much of an average.
• If there is a position of weakness in the Twins farm system its at catcher. There are catchers to be had in the first round. But all of them carry the question mark as to whether or not they’re catchers or “catchers.” Max Sapp and Hank Conger are catchers. But then again, so were Justin Morneau, Paul Konerko and Carlos Delgado once, Like the aforementioned three, Sapp’s best position is in the batter’s box, where he hits tape measure shots with a quick swing. Sapp has a plus arm, but his movements behind the plate aren’t what they should be. The same can be said about Conger. Chad Tracy, son of current Pirates manager, is the best college hitter. He knows the strike zone, has a nice little batting stroke to him and moves well behind the plate. He doesn’t have a plus throwing arm however, and that may lead to a move to another position. Another catcher, Brian Jeroloman, on the other thing is everything you can want in a catcher defensively. Too bad he’s hitting under the college Mendozza line right now at the University of Florida. Jeroloman is considered more of a second or third round pick though.
• The Twins motto over the last couple of years has been when in doubt, grab a college pitcher. And given that college pitching is the strength of this year’s draft, it may well work out that way again. The only two college pitchers guaranteed to not be there when the Twins draft is UNC LHP Andrew Miller and Cal flamethrower Branden Morrow. After that, it’s a real crap shoot. Washington right hander Tim Linceum has an amazing fastball which might get him drafted early. But then again his 6 foot frame may scare teams off too. Ian Kennedy and Max Scherer have talent. But both are represented by Scott Boras. Joba Chamberlin has been Nebraska’s ace the last couple of years and has good stuff. But he has also fought injuries this year. Daniel Bard was once thought to be in the mix to go first overall because of his build and stuff. But now he’s sliding to the point where he may even be available that late because he’s been inconsistent. Brad Lincoln? Kyle McCullough? Greg Reynolds? There are plenty of talented college pitchers out there. The question is who will be available?
Tuesday, April 25, 2006
Thursday, April 20, 2006
Mind. Numbing. Horror.
Last night, my dad gave me a call. He got an e-mail from the Twins saying they wanted a huge pro-Twin crowd at the anti-stadium speech. He asked if he swung by to pick me up at 4:45 pm, would I be ready? This is the man who once said if I got into Harvard or Stanford, he'd take an extra job at McDonalds to pay for it. And although he was quite relieved when I chose a much more affordable school, still I owed it to him to put on a Twins cap and go. Even though I knew I was signing up for an evening of pain.
And boy was I ever right. Because meetings tend to be akin to listening to Dankind ramble for four hours. Not just one Dankind, mind you. About 50 of them. And while I am very much for a new stadium, they were speaking on both sides of the issue. Some of the highlights of the evening included:
•A guy who introduced himself as the "Next Governor of Minnesota" singing an anti-stadium version of Take Me Out to the Ball Game and droning on for about 15 minutes on several tangents, none of which had anything the stadium, taxes or anyting worthwhile. While the room was about 50% pro-stadium and 50% against, everyone agreed his chances of actually winning the governor's mansion were about the same as Aaron Gleeman actually landing a date with Jessica Alba.
• A pirate-hat clad Libertarian party leader, who's speech seemed to be entitled "How to make a complete jackass out of yourself and alienate everybody."
• Tony Oliva giving about a 20,000 word pro-stadium oration for the Twins. Though only 20 of the words actually seemed to be in English.
• A Metropolitan State University Economics professor getting called out by a State Representative for teaching at Metropolitian State University. In the representative's defense though, the professor didn't seem to grasp the concept of economics.
• About 50 people who wrongly cited "Taxation without represenatation" as a reason why there needs to be a referendum on a tax measure. Even though "representation" generally means voting for a senator or congressman to make that decision for you.
In the end, the Tax Committee voted that the Twins Stadium tax issue didn't have to be voted on via referendum, in a move that increased the chances of there being a new baseball stadium in Minnesota exponetially.
It was the right move. And I suppose if I had to listen to another four hours of pointless ramblings to increase the chances of their, you know, actually being a Minnesota Twins in 2008, I'd do it again.
And boy was I ever right. Because meetings tend to be akin to listening to Dankind ramble for four hours. Not just one Dankind, mind you. About 50 of them. And while I am very much for a new stadium, they were speaking on both sides of the issue. Some of the highlights of the evening included:
•A guy who introduced himself as the "Next Governor of Minnesota" singing an anti-stadium version of Take Me Out to the Ball Game and droning on for about 15 minutes on several tangents, none of which had anything the stadium, taxes or anyting worthwhile. While the room was about 50% pro-stadium and 50% against, everyone agreed his chances of actually winning the governor's mansion were about the same as Aaron Gleeman actually landing a date with Jessica Alba.
• A pirate-hat clad Libertarian party leader, who's speech seemed to be entitled "How to make a complete jackass out of yourself and alienate everybody."
• Tony Oliva giving about a 20,000 word pro-stadium oration for the Twins. Though only 20 of the words actually seemed to be in English.
• A Metropolitan State University Economics professor getting called out by a State Representative for teaching at Metropolitian State University. In the representative's defense though, the professor didn't seem to grasp the concept of economics.
• About 50 people who wrongly cited "Taxation without represenatation" as a reason why there needs to be a referendum on a tax measure. Even though "representation" generally means voting for a senator or congressman to make that decision for you.
In the end, the Tax Committee voted that the Twins Stadium tax issue didn't have to be voted on via referendum, in a move that increased the chances of there being a new baseball stadium in Minnesota exponetially.
It was the right move. And I suppose if I had to listen to another four hours of pointless ramblings to increase the chances of their, you know, actually being a Minnesota Twins in 2008, I'd do it again.
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
Overreacting
This is a cautionary tale about two players the Twins signed as free agents this past off-season as free agents. One, Tony Batista, is off to a pretty good start—batting .297 and slugging .568. The other, Rondell White, is off to a start that can best be defined as Antarctic-like—hitting a whopping .085 and getting on-base exactly one time out of ten.
Not surprisingly, the player hitting well has been getting a lot of credit. The player hitting poorly on the other hand is already being compared to Butch Huskey. Which seems a little bit odd to be doing in April.
I feel a little bit bad for pointing out that an 0-10 stretch puts Batista’s line at .234/.294/..447. Almost vintage Batista numbers, plus we know from Spring Training how prone Batista is to 0-10 stretches. At the same time Rondell White is only a 10/10 spurt away from .246. Not great still, but hey it’s a start back to respectability.
The numbers may not shape it up that way right now, but Batista was the far greater mistake. His 41 plate appearances thus far would have been better used to see if Michael Cuddyer is going to be a member of the 2007 Twins or not. And Cuddyer’s 19 plate appearances thus far would have thus trickled down to developing Jason Kubel. Instead, Batista’s presence has clogged right field with two players who have an upside worth trying to tap, and a third who’s pretty useful in Lew Ford.
White wasn’t a mistake perse. I’ll be shocked if he isn’t hitting .280 with 20 homeruns when the year is over and done. But the Twins did mess up by not hedging their bet. Ruben Sierra is a complete waste of a roster spot, especially when hitters like Hee Seop Choi or Carlos Pena could have been had for nothing in the last month. Ideally, you want David Ortiz or Travis Hafner DHing for your club. And while the Twins could afford to sign neither of those two at this point in time, it’s worth noting that neither was anywhere near this valuable when their current club rolled the dice on them. In fact, is it really all that surprising to see Choi’s upside go to Boston?
Ryan made a good move this offseason in getting Luis Castillo, and a fairly average one in grabbing White. But at the same time he made a bad one grabbing Batista and an ugly one getting Sierra. All totaled up, that gives you a .500 team. Is it really that big of a coincidence the Twins are sitting at .500 12 games into the season? The early results shouldn’t change that.
In other news, I think I’m going to start referring to Castillo, Batista and Sierra as the Good, the Bad and the Ugly from now on.
Not surprisingly, the player hitting well has been getting a lot of credit. The player hitting poorly on the other hand is already being compared to Butch Huskey. Which seems a little bit odd to be doing in April.
I feel a little bit bad for pointing out that an 0-10 stretch puts Batista’s line at .234/.294/..447. Almost vintage Batista numbers, plus we know from Spring Training how prone Batista is to 0-10 stretches. At the same time Rondell White is only a 10/10 spurt away from .246. Not great still, but hey it’s a start back to respectability.
The numbers may not shape it up that way right now, but Batista was the far greater mistake. His 41 plate appearances thus far would have been better used to see if Michael Cuddyer is going to be a member of the 2007 Twins or not. And Cuddyer’s 19 plate appearances thus far would have thus trickled down to developing Jason Kubel. Instead, Batista’s presence has clogged right field with two players who have an upside worth trying to tap, and a third who’s pretty useful in Lew Ford.
White wasn’t a mistake perse. I’ll be shocked if he isn’t hitting .280 with 20 homeruns when the year is over and done. But the Twins did mess up by not hedging their bet. Ruben Sierra is a complete waste of a roster spot, especially when hitters like Hee Seop Choi or Carlos Pena could have been had for nothing in the last month. Ideally, you want David Ortiz or Travis Hafner DHing for your club. And while the Twins could afford to sign neither of those two at this point in time, it’s worth noting that neither was anywhere near this valuable when their current club rolled the dice on them. In fact, is it really all that surprising to see Choi’s upside go to Boston?
Ryan made a good move this offseason in getting Luis Castillo, and a fairly average one in grabbing White. But at the same time he made a bad one grabbing Batista and an ugly one getting Sierra. All totaled up, that gives you a .500 team. Is it really that big of a coincidence the Twins are sitting at .500 12 games into the season? The early results shouldn’t change that.
In other news, I think I’m going to start referring to Castillo, Batista and Sierra as the Good, the Bad and the Ugly from now on.
Thursday, April 13, 2006
Statistical Oddities
Part of the joy of the early season is the statistical oddities that spring up. Here are several ones for the Twins so far.
• Tony Batista, career OBP of .298, is currently second on the team in walks with three.
• Juan Castro, career batting average of .231, is a .300 hitter at .318.
• Mike Redmond, career batting average of .287, on the other hand is currently on pace to obliverate Hugh Duffy's Major League Record of .440 in a season. Redmond is curently batting .625.
• Justin Morneau isn't on pace to a Major League Record. But he's close, and on pace to hit 72 homeruns.
• Jesse Crain, with his career 3.58 K/9 rate, is currently striking out batters at a 11.25 per 9 clip.
• Cy Santana, and his career 3.34 ERA, however isn't so lucky. He's on pace to finish with an ugly 5.73 ERA.
Mike Redmond is the least likely of any of these to last. Which one is second?
• Tony Batista, career OBP of .298, is currently second on the team in walks with three.
• Juan Castro, career batting average of .231, is a .300 hitter at .318.
• Mike Redmond, career batting average of .287, on the other hand is currently on pace to obliverate Hugh Duffy's Major League Record of .440 in a season. Redmond is curently batting .625.
• Justin Morneau isn't on pace to a Major League Record. But he's close, and on pace to hit 72 homeruns.
• Jesse Crain, with his career 3.58 K/9 rate, is currently striking out batters at a 11.25 per 9 clip.
• Cy Santana, and his career 3.34 ERA, however isn't so lucky. He's on pace to finish with an ugly 5.73 ERA.
Mike Redmond is the least likely of any of these to last. Which one is second?
Sunday, April 09, 2006
The Ninth Hole Excuse
Well, I’m back in Minnesota now. And the fridge is stocked full of a month’s supply of God’s nectar, Black Butte Porter. I also brought several bottles of a barley wine called Mirror Mirror, back with me, and it might be the best barley wine ever. Instead of having an overly strong alcohol taste to it like most barley wines, it tastes just like a very good pale beer. Those are gone already. They were needed to deal with watching the Twins play this weekend.
The most painful part of these weekend’s series with the Indians wasn’t the actual baseball. It was listening to the Politburo of Dick and Bert playing spin doctor. Did you know for example, that Rondell White is the next Chili Davis? Forget the fact that Davis had this nasty little habit of hitting for more power than White and showing more patience at the plate. This is something that’s meant to be. And over at the Twins ESPN Board, they’ve started a “Just past a diving Batista” count, akin to the Chicken Count San Francisco fans add another number to when a pitcher refuses to throw to Barry Bonds. But hey, at least he can field every ball hit right at him, right?
The most mind numbing chatter, surprisingly enough, had nothing to do with Batista. Bert’s defense of Juan Castro’s defense was possibly the best job of insulting the Twins’ fans collective intelligence since Dougie Mientkiewicz. Mostly because the same logic is being used to defend Castro. At one point during the weekend, Bert referred to Castro as a .300 hitter when you take defense into account—akin to Gardenhire’s old statement that Mientkiwicz was drove in a 100 runs a year, when you took defense into account.
Heck, if we’re going to make ridiculous hyperbole, let’s make it as farfetched as possible. Juan Castro’s glove is so powerful it will end the war in Iraq. Juan Castro’s glove is so mighty, it’ll single-handedly stop global warming. Juan Castro’s range is greater than Voyager 2. Juan Castro’s glove will be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize after forcing Hamas and Israel to sit down for serious peace talks. None of the above statements is any more far-fetched than saying Castro’s glove make him a .300 hitter.
The other excuse thrown out was that Castro was just a 9-hole hitter. And all you want your 9-hole hitter to do is bunt the occasional runner over is to bunt the occasional runner over. That excuse works in the National League, where your 9-hole hitter plays every fifth day and is better judged by his ERA. In the American League however, things are a little different. Here’s a look at the 14 ninth hitters in the American League, ranking them by career stats coming into the 2006 Season
Player Team BA OBP SLG OPS
Robinson Cano NYY .297 .320 .458 .778
Nick Swisher OAK .238 .325 .443 .768
Casey Blake CLE .255 .324 .439 .763
R. Hernandez BAL .262 .325 .418 .743
Adam Kennedy LAA .281 .332 .401 .733
Aaron Hill TOR .274 .342 .385 .727
John Buck KC .239 .286 .402 .688
Alex Gonzales BOS .245 .291 .391 .682
Brandon Inge DET .238 .299 .379 .678
Y. Betancourt SEA .256 .290 .370 .660
Joey Gathright TB .276 .316 .322 .638
Juan Castro MIN .230 .271 .339 .610
Brian Anderson CWS .176 .176 .382 .558
Ian Kinsler TEX .000 .000 .000 .000
I should come forth and say this isn’t a particularly fair list. Then again, if it were fair, Castro would be behind Anderson and Kinsler. He might move ahead of Joey Gathright, on the other hand, if we did this as a list a weighted PECOTA list or something. But at the same time, once Rocco Baldelli is healthy, Gathright is out a job.
It’s not that hard to make an argument for Castro being the worst of the worst hitters in the American League. And if that’s not the surest way to improve a bad offense, well then what is?
The most painful part of these weekend’s series with the Indians wasn’t the actual baseball. It was listening to the Politburo of Dick and Bert playing spin doctor. Did you know for example, that Rondell White is the next Chili Davis? Forget the fact that Davis had this nasty little habit of hitting for more power than White and showing more patience at the plate. This is something that’s meant to be. And over at the Twins ESPN Board, they’ve started a “Just past a diving Batista” count, akin to the Chicken Count San Francisco fans add another number to when a pitcher refuses to throw to Barry Bonds. But hey, at least he can field every ball hit right at him, right?
The most mind numbing chatter, surprisingly enough, had nothing to do with Batista. Bert’s defense of Juan Castro’s defense was possibly the best job of insulting the Twins’ fans collective intelligence since Dougie Mientkiewicz. Mostly because the same logic is being used to defend Castro. At one point during the weekend, Bert referred to Castro as a .300 hitter when you take defense into account—akin to Gardenhire’s old statement that Mientkiwicz was drove in a 100 runs a year, when you took defense into account.
Heck, if we’re going to make ridiculous hyperbole, let’s make it as farfetched as possible. Juan Castro’s glove is so powerful it will end the war in Iraq. Juan Castro’s glove is so mighty, it’ll single-handedly stop global warming. Juan Castro’s range is greater than Voyager 2. Juan Castro’s glove will be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize after forcing Hamas and Israel to sit down for serious peace talks. None of the above statements is any more far-fetched than saying Castro’s glove make him a .300 hitter.
The other excuse thrown out was that Castro was just a 9-hole hitter. And all you want your 9-hole hitter to do is bunt the occasional runner over is to bunt the occasional runner over. That excuse works in the National League, where your 9-hole hitter plays every fifth day and is better judged by his ERA. In the American League however, things are a little different. Here’s a look at the 14 ninth hitters in the American League, ranking them by career stats coming into the 2006 Season
Player Team BA OBP SLG OPS
Robinson Cano NYY .297 .320 .458 .778
Nick Swisher OAK .238 .325 .443 .768
Casey Blake CLE .255 .324 .439 .763
R. Hernandez BAL .262 .325 .418 .743
Adam Kennedy LAA .281 .332 .401 .733
Aaron Hill TOR .274 .342 .385 .727
John Buck KC .239 .286 .402 .688
Alex Gonzales BOS .245 .291 .391 .682
Brandon Inge DET .238 .299 .379 .678
Y. Betancourt SEA .256 .290 .370 .660
Joey Gathright TB .276 .316 .322 .638
Juan Castro MIN .230 .271 .339 .610
Brian Anderson CWS .176 .176 .382 .558
Ian Kinsler TEX .000 .000 .000 .000
I should come forth and say this isn’t a particularly fair list. Then again, if it were fair, Castro would be behind Anderson and Kinsler. He might move ahead of Joey Gathright, on the other hand, if we did this as a list a weighted PECOTA list or something. But at the same time, once Rocco Baldelli is healthy, Gathright is out a job.
It’s not that hard to make an argument for Castro being the worst of the worst hitters in the American League. And if that’s not the surest way to improve a bad offense, well then what is?
Wednesday, April 05, 2006
Editors Note
I may have enough hours in the day to cover one or two more interesting stats for the Twins this season. Anyone have any suggestions?
Minor League Splits
When the Minor League seasons start Thursday, here's where I plan to keep track of lefty/right splits for them.
Best and Worst Game Scores for 2006
Game score is a fun little stat designed by Bill James to judge how effective a pitcher was in a start. Here's how it's scored.
Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.
With that said, here are the Twins' 10 best and 10 worst game scores for the 2006 season. (Note, this shouldn't really be all that interesting until about 20 games into the season)
Top 10
1. 70. Scott Baker vs New York (A), 4/14
2. 54. Kyle Lohse vs Oakland, 4/13
3. 53. Brad Radke vs Oakland, 4/11
4. 50. Johan Santana vs Cleveland, 4/9
5. 47. Johan Santana vs New York (A), 4/15
6. 42. Brad Radke vs Toronto, 4/5
42. Carlos Silva vs Oakland, 4/12
8. 37. Carlos Silva vs Toronto, 4/6
9. 36. Scott Baker vs Cleveland, 4/8
10. 35. Johan Santana vs Toronto, 4/4
Bottom 10
1. 10. Kyle Lohse vs Cleveland, 4/7
2. 29. Brad Radke vs New York (A), 4/16
3. 35. Johan Santana vs Toronto, 4/4
4. 36. Scott Baker vs Cleveland, 4/9
5. 37. Carlos Silva vs Toronto, 4/6
6. 42. Brad Radke vs Toronto, 4/5
42. Carlos Silva vs Oakland, 4/12
8. 47. Johan Santana vs New York (A), 4/15
9. 50. Johan Santana vs Cleveland, 4/9
10. 52. Brad Radke vs Oakland, 4/11
Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.
With that said, here are the Twins' 10 best and 10 worst game scores for the 2006 season. (Note, this shouldn't really be all that interesting until about 20 games into the season)
Top 10
1. 70. Scott Baker vs New York (A), 4/14
2. 54. Kyle Lohse vs Oakland, 4/13
3. 53. Brad Radke vs Oakland, 4/11
4. 50. Johan Santana vs Cleveland, 4/9
5. 47. Johan Santana vs New York (A), 4/15
6. 42. Brad Radke vs Toronto, 4/5
42. Carlos Silva vs Oakland, 4/12
8. 37. Carlos Silva vs Toronto, 4/6
9. 36. Scott Baker vs Cleveland, 4/8
10. 35. Johan Santana vs Toronto, 4/4
Bottom 10
1. 10. Kyle Lohse vs Cleveland, 4/7
2. 29. Brad Radke vs New York (A), 4/16
3. 35. Johan Santana vs Toronto, 4/4
4. 36. Scott Baker vs Cleveland, 4/9
5. 37. Carlos Silva vs Toronto, 4/6
6. 42. Brad Radke vs Toronto, 4/5
42. Carlos Silva vs Oakland, 4/12
8. 47. Johan Santana vs New York (A), 4/15
9. 50. Johan Santana vs Cleveland, 4/9
10. 52. Brad Radke vs Oakland, 4/11
Tuesday, April 04, 2006
Ten predictions for 2006
1. Barring a mild case of ebola, Justin Morneau becomes the first Twin since 1987 to hit 30 homeruns in a season. Not much explanation needed here really.
2. Tony Batista doesn’t come anywhere near 30 homeruns. Because that’s pretty hard to do when you only get 200 plate appearances. You can already start hearing snickers in the press about Batista. This experiment probably lasts until mid-May. Maybe less if Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer both get off to fast starts.
3. Joe Mauer makes his first of many All-Star games.
4. For the first time in 5 years, the Twins bullpen is a weakness. Juan Rincon never gets going, and Jesse Crain regresses significantly in 2006.
5. By the end of the year, Shannon Stewart is nothing more than a fourth outfielder, with injuries robbing all his range in the field and significantly cutting down on the number of at-bats he gets.
6. Johan Santana breaks Walter Johnson’s franchise record of 313 strikeouts in a season.
7. Torii Hunter plays in over 100 games, but not over 110.
8. Matt Moses has a breakout year, hitting for power and average. On the pitching front, Anthony Swarzak works his way up to AAA and becomes the next great Twins’ starting pitcher in waiting.
9. The Twins finish in third place, 10 games behind the White Sox and 15 behind the Indians.
10. Ron Gardenhire is on the hot seat after that happens.
That said, Play ball.
2. Tony Batista doesn’t come anywhere near 30 homeruns. Because that’s pretty hard to do when you only get 200 plate appearances. You can already start hearing snickers in the press about Batista. This experiment probably lasts until mid-May. Maybe less if Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer both get off to fast starts.
3. Joe Mauer makes his first of many All-Star games.
4. For the first time in 5 years, the Twins bullpen is a weakness. Juan Rincon never gets going, and Jesse Crain regresses significantly in 2006.
5. By the end of the year, Shannon Stewart is nothing more than a fourth outfielder, with injuries robbing all his range in the field and significantly cutting down on the number of at-bats he gets.
6. Johan Santana breaks Walter Johnson’s franchise record of 313 strikeouts in a season.
7. Torii Hunter plays in over 100 games, but not over 110.
8. Matt Moses has a breakout year, hitting for power and average. On the pitching front, Anthony Swarzak works his way up to AAA and becomes the next great Twins’ starting pitcher in waiting.
9. The Twins finish in third place, 10 games behind the White Sox and 15 behind the Indians.
10. Ron Gardenhire is on the hot seat after that happens.
That said, Play ball.
Sunday, April 02, 2006
That sick, grumbling feeling in my stomach was right
A couple of years ago, Rob Neyer and Rany Jazayerli used to write one of my favorite baseball columns, Rob and Rany on the Royals. Both Neyer and Jazayerli are brilliant baseball writers. And both of them are great Royals fans. And it was always interesting to watch them sink into the abyss that is Royals baseball.
One day, before the start of the 2003, Rob Neyer gave up. He said he didn't want to go on writing about the Royals. Sadly, I know exactly how he feels right now.
Right now I'm staying with friends in Oregon. And as such, I opened yesterday with three shots of tequilla and didn't stop drinking until I passed out. All throughout the day, there was a sick sort of rumbling to my stomach. I thought it was the tequilla. Turns out, it was something more.
The Twins will open the 2006 season with the worst possible line-up. Juan Castro and Tony Batista and their sub .290 OBPs will combine to create the Dead Sea effect on the bottom half of the line-up. Jason Kubel has promise, but there is still obvious signs of rust on him and opening him in Rochester probably was the best possible decision. Michael Cuddyer, who looked promising in Spring Training, suddenly becomes trade bait. Even though he's about 3 times better of an option at third base than Tony Batista and slightly better than Jason Kubel in right at this point. Add in Ron Gardenhire's need to keep two utility infielders, and the potential for disaster runs high with the Twins this year.
The upside is that improvements from Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer will keep the team from last in runs scored again. But at the same time, this team could win 100 games with ease if it finds a way to score 800 runs this season. Right now though, 700 looks like it will be a stretch. And there's only one man to blame for that. Ron Gardenhire.
The burning question for the Twins success is going to be when are they going to realize what their greatest liability is?
One day, before the start of the 2003, Rob Neyer gave up. He said he didn't want to go on writing about the Royals. Sadly, I know exactly how he feels right now.
Right now I'm staying with friends in Oregon. And as such, I opened yesterday with three shots of tequilla and didn't stop drinking until I passed out. All throughout the day, there was a sick sort of rumbling to my stomach. I thought it was the tequilla. Turns out, it was something more.
The Twins will open the 2006 season with the worst possible line-up. Juan Castro and Tony Batista and their sub .290 OBPs will combine to create the Dead Sea effect on the bottom half of the line-up. Jason Kubel has promise, but there is still obvious signs of rust on him and opening him in Rochester probably was the best possible decision. Michael Cuddyer, who looked promising in Spring Training, suddenly becomes trade bait. Even though he's about 3 times better of an option at third base than Tony Batista and slightly better than Jason Kubel in right at this point. Add in Ron Gardenhire's need to keep two utility infielders, and the potential for disaster runs high with the Twins this year.
The upside is that improvements from Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer will keep the team from last in runs scored again. But at the same time, this team could win 100 games with ease if it finds a way to score 800 runs this season. Right now though, 700 looks like it will be a stretch. And there's only one man to blame for that. Ron Gardenhire.
The burning question for the Twins success is going to be when are they going to realize what their greatest liability is?
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