The fat lady isn’t singing yet. But you sure can hear her warming up, getting ready to end the Twins title hopes in 2007. With that said, if the Twins are saying here are four trades I’d be on the phone to other GMs trying to make happen. I’m not saying they will happen. I’m not even saying the other GM wouldn’t laugh in my face if I proposed them. All I’m saying is they’d be good for the future of the Minnesota Twins.
1. C Mike Redmond to Oakland for C Landon Powell. Surprisingly, the most in-demand piece the Twins may have to trade not named Santana, Nathan, Liriano, Morneau or Mauer might be their back-up catcher. If the Twins deem their sellers, then keeping Redmond doesn’t make an iota of sense given that A) Catcher is the hole that a lot of teams in contention need to fill and B) Redmond is a free-agent after the year. I’d also see what Colorado would offer for Redmond, but Oakland is the team that might be more desperate when it comes to catching. Getting Powell, a former first round pick, would be a boon to an organization that doesn’t have a back-up plan if catching ruins Joe Mauer. Sure, you’d rather get Kurt Suzuki who’s younger, safer and excelling at Double-A. If we’re going to dream, I’d like gas prices to go back under $2 a gallon, too. Powell is more likely trade bait, but he also has the higher ceiling than Suzuki given his power potential, though. And that makes him not a bad consolation prize.
2. OF/DH Shannon Stewart to the Yankees for 3B Marcos Vechionacci. Let’s face two facts. One, the Twins can’t keep Shannon Stewart in 2007. They can’t cut his salary enough from the $6.5 million he’s making in 2006 to make it worth the team’s while. And two, other teams know that Shannon Stewart isn’t the same Shannon Stewart he used to be, so you’re not going to get a big return on him. The Yankees need an outfielder and like Stewart, so it’s worth seeing if they’ll give up Vechionacci for him. What you’re trying to do is essentially predict a player who might blow up in the near future, like the Twins did when they traded Dave Hollins for David Ortiz in 1996. Vechionacci isn’t in the same class of prospect that Phillip Hughes or Jose Tabata are in right now. But at the same time, Vechionacci doesn’t turn 20 until August, is holding his own with the bat at Charleston, walks more than he strikes out, and reportedly fields third base very smoothly. It’s a good gamble to take if you’re the Twins. Especially if the ante chip is someone you can’t keep in 2007.
3. __________ to Colorado for 1B Ryan Shealy. Maybe I just have Ryan Shealy on the brain, but he’s a player who makes perfect sense for the Twins’ needs at DH. The ideal for the position seems to be a right handed player who can get on-base and pound the snot out of the ball, which describes Shealy to a T. A more ideal situation might have been to go back in time to yesterday and offer the Reds a few bad bullpen pitchers for Austin Kearns. But that’s impossible. The question is what would the Rockies want for Shealy, who’s effectively blocked in their system by Todd Helton, Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe? They’re weak at catcher, and in center field. But Redmond for Shealy seems like too little, and Hunter for Shealy seems like too much. That’s why I left it blank.
4. CF Torii Hunter to the White Sox for 3B Josh Fields and CF Brian Anderson. This may be a pipe dream. But at the same time, if you’re going to trade Torii Hunter you need to get his replacement and a third baseman because you can win a World Series in 2007 if you keep Torii Hunter and sign a free-agent third baseman. The only team in baseball that has that to offer is the White Sox, who need a safer bet in center field if they’re going to repeat. If I were the Twins’ GM, my line to Ken Williams would be what do you need Fields and Anderson for if you have Hunter and Joe Crede. Fields is enjoying a breakout year in AAA, and while Anderson isn’t hitting he is playing a mean defensive center field and might hit in the near future. If you’re the White Sox, it’s a stiff price. But that’s also the price of trying to do a deal within your division. And at the same time, there’s a certain level of Rich Beckerosity to Anderson that might scare the team. It may seem strange to see Torii in White Sox black. But you get over it eventually. Right, A.J?
Friday, July 14, 2006
Monday, July 10, 2006
Breaking down Pat Neshek
Pat Neshek put up some phenomenally good numbers in Rochester during the first half of the season. And as usually is the case when you’re striking out 13 batters per 9 innings, it catches someone’s eye. Neshek was called up to the Twins last week. How will he do? No one can know for certain. But we can try to dissect his pitching style a bit.
Stuff
Neshek operates with a fastball that generally runs anywhere from 89 to 93 miles per hour. He’s fairly adept at changing speeds with it. It’s not atypical closer velocity. Normally you like a guy who’s throwing triple digits coming out of the pen. But you can still be a pretty good relief pitcher if you don’t. Ask Chad Cordero or Huston Street about that.
Like Street and Cordero, Neshek’s second pitch is a slider—though Neshek’s slider doesn’t rank as highly on the 20-80 scouting scale as either of the aforementioned. Neshek’s slider has a good late break, but it’s not as vicious as Cordero’s.
If Neshek is going to be a closer in the majors, he’ll probably need a better second pitch either in the form of a tighter slider or a good change-up.
Delivery
Neshek’s calling card is his funky delivery, which really can only be summed up in pictures.
It starts out something like this, ball held in a normal sort of way.
Then Neshek twists his body low creating a lot of torque.
Finally Neshek twists his body and fires the ball the ball. He releases the ball from either a very low ¾ delivery or the sidearm slot pictured above.
Different? It’s not as uncommon as you would think. At least one MVP from the last 15 years threw with a very similar delivery. Observe.
Note the similarities, especially between pictures 1 and pictures 3. Picture 3 is especially important.
It’s been said before in the forums and in the pages of the Strib that Neshek is nearly death on right-handed hitters and hittable by left-handed hitters. A big part of this is due to where he releases the ball. For a right-handed hitter, his wide delivery puts his release point outside of a right-handed hitters peripheral vision, or sort of behind the batter. A lefty sees it better because the release point is still in his line of vision. Add in the fact that while the normal right-handed sidearmer throws about a 85 miles an hour fastball, and you see why Neshek is a dead-lock to have a major league career.
Summary
How could can Neshek be? It’s hard to say right now. He’ll definitely have a major league career, and his funky delivery should buy him some success. And there certainly is the potential for more if continues to improve.
I hate bringing out the Dennis Eckersley comp, because it’s very unrealistic. But if we’re going to dream, why not dream big? they are very similar pitchers in terms of delivery and stuff. And Eckersley was also notorious for being death on right-handed hitters and easy pickings for lefties. In Eckersley’s famed 1992 season for example, lefties hit a robust .264/.295/.365 clip off of him. Well, robust in comparison to the .164/.187/.247 right handed batters hit off him. He struck out almost twice as many right-handed batters that year, in spite of having two more official at-bats against left-handed pitchers.
Of course, there have been other hard-throwing sidearmed relievers in the last decade, and none of them have been Eckersley either. Jeff Nelson wasn’t Eckersley. But he had a lot of success in this league and still would make a good ROOGIE if a team were interested. Justin Speier has that same sort of herky-jerky delivery, but he hasn’t even been Nelson untouchable. So what made Eckersley Eckersely? Two things.
1. A good second pitch. Eckersley threw right-handed batters almost exclusively fastballs, knowing they’d have problems seeing it. Against lefties though, he relied almost exclusively on his slider. In his best years, like 1990, he eliminated lefties almost as well as he did righties, although he was prone to hanging the odd one like he did to Kirk Gibson in the 1988 World Series. Ditto Jeff Nelson, who’s frisbee slider made him one of the touighest pitchers in baseball to hit a few years ago. For Neshek to even be an elite set-up man, he’ll need that kind of second pitch. Though settling for Dan Quisenberry’s change-up over Eckersley’s slider would have the same effect.
2. Silva-like control. What separated Eckersley from Nelson was the fact that Nelson walked as many batters in certain innings as Eckersley did in certain seasons. And we’ve all read Moneyball and know how important that is.
Neshek has a pretty good, but not great slider right now. He couples that with pretty good but not great control. If he can up one or the other of those to the great level, he could be an All-Star worthy middle reliever. If he can bump both of those up to great level, the sky is the limit.
But in the more likely case that neither of those happens, pitchers like Justin Speier are still very useful.
Stuff
Neshek operates with a fastball that generally runs anywhere from 89 to 93 miles per hour. He’s fairly adept at changing speeds with it. It’s not atypical closer velocity. Normally you like a guy who’s throwing triple digits coming out of the pen. But you can still be a pretty good relief pitcher if you don’t. Ask Chad Cordero or Huston Street about that.
Like Street and Cordero, Neshek’s second pitch is a slider—though Neshek’s slider doesn’t rank as highly on the 20-80 scouting scale as either of the aforementioned. Neshek’s slider has a good late break, but it’s not as vicious as Cordero’s.
If Neshek is going to be a closer in the majors, he’ll probably need a better second pitch either in the form of a tighter slider or a good change-up.
Delivery
Neshek’s calling card is his funky delivery, which really can only be summed up in pictures.
It starts out something like this, ball held in a normal sort of way.
Then Neshek twists his body low creating a lot of torque.
Finally Neshek twists his body and fires the ball the ball. He releases the ball from either a very low ¾ delivery or the sidearm slot pictured above.
Different? It’s not as uncommon as you would think. At least one MVP from the last 15 years threw with a very similar delivery. Observe.
Note the similarities, especially between pictures 1 and pictures 3. Picture 3 is especially important.
It’s been said before in the forums and in the pages of the Strib that Neshek is nearly death on right-handed hitters and hittable by left-handed hitters. A big part of this is due to where he releases the ball. For a right-handed hitter, his wide delivery puts his release point outside of a right-handed hitters peripheral vision, or sort of behind the batter. A lefty sees it better because the release point is still in his line of vision. Add in the fact that while the normal right-handed sidearmer throws about a 85 miles an hour fastball, and you see why Neshek is a dead-lock to have a major league career.
Summary
How could can Neshek be? It’s hard to say right now. He’ll definitely have a major league career, and his funky delivery should buy him some success. And there certainly is the potential for more if continues to improve.
I hate bringing out the Dennis Eckersley comp, because it’s very unrealistic. But if we’re going to dream, why not dream big? they are very similar pitchers in terms of delivery and stuff. And Eckersley was also notorious for being death on right-handed hitters and easy pickings for lefties. In Eckersley’s famed 1992 season for example, lefties hit a robust .264/.295/.365 clip off of him. Well, robust in comparison to the .164/.187/.247 right handed batters hit off him. He struck out almost twice as many right-handed batters that year, in spite of having two more official at-bats against left-handed pitchers.
Of course, there have been other hard-throwing sidearmed relievers in the last decade, and none of them have been Eckersley either. Jeff Nelson wasn’t Eckersley. But he had a lot of success in this league and still would make a good ROOGIE if a team were interested. Justin Speier has that same sort of herky-jerky delivery, but he hasn’t even been Nelson untouchable. So what made Eckersley Eckersely? Two things.
1. A good second pitch. Eckersley threw right-handed batters almost exclusively fastballs, knowing they’d have problems seeing it. Against lefties though, he relied almost exclusively on his slider. In his best years, like 1990, he eliminated lefties almost as well as he did righties, although he was prone to hanging the odd one like he did to Kirk Gibson in the 1988 World Series. Ditto Jeff Nelson, who’s frisbee slider made him one of the touighest pitchers in baseball to hit a few years ago. For Neshek to even be an elite set-up man, he’ll need that kind of second pitch. Though settling for Dan Quisenberry’s change-up over Eckersley’s slider would have the same effect.
2. Silva-like control. What separated Eckersley from Nelson was the fact that Nelson walked as many batters in certain innings as Eckersley did in certain seasons. And we’ve all read Moneyball and know how important that is.
Neshek has a pretty good, but not great slider right now. He couples that with pretty good but not great control. If he can up one or the other of those to the great level, he could be an All-Star worthy middle reliever. If he can bump both of those up to great level, the sky is the limit.
But in the more likely case that neither of those happens, pitchers like Justin Speier are still very useful.
Thursday, July 06, 2006
Sunday, July 02, 2006
Gardy's Jackassidry
Should you feel pity for a friend who comes down with herpes because he continuously sleeps with the dirtiest skanks he can find? Or do you mock him until he breaks down into tears? I tend to believe in the second one, but at the same he’s still your friend.
I ask this rhetorical question because Ron Gardenhire is at it again, making the case that he might well be the most deserving person in the state of Minnesota to start collecting unemployment. The highlight of this doozy of an article has to be this quote right here.
"That's hindsight, anybody can do that," Gardenhire said of the article.
That kind of unintentional humor is absolutely priceless. The name T-Fat was hung on Tony Batista in spring training, and the first Tony Batisita in Spring Training, and people were commenting on how big and slow he looked when the first video of him playing in Japan broke last December. And those who weren’t were complaining about the sub .300 OBPs that sent him to Japan in 2005. Is it really hindsight that he flopped? In order for Juan Castro’s glove to have as much of an impact as Dick and Bert gave it credit for in April, he’d have to be Ozzie Smith’s equal with the leather. Did anyone drink that Kool Aid? And not to let Rondell White off the hook, is it really that surprising when a player who has played over 140 games once in his 11-plus year career comes down with a shoulder injury that affects his ability to hit significantly? And better yet, why wasn’t this shoulder diagnosed in April instead of letting White kill the line-up?
The problem is that Gardenhire and Ryan’s early decisions were akin to giving the 2006 season herpes. The two at least should man up and take some responsibility.
I ask this rhetorical question because Ron Gardenhire is at it again, making the case that he might well be the most deserving person in the state of Minnesota to start collecting unemployment. The highlight of this doozy of an article has to be this quote right here.
"That's hindsight, anybody can do that," Gardenhire said of the article.
That kind of unintentional humor is absolutely priceless. The name T-Fat was hung on Tony Batista in spring training, and the first Tony Batisita in Spring Training, and people were commenting on how big and slow he looked when the first video of him playing in Japan broke last December. And those who weren’t were complaining about the sub .300 OBPs that sent him to Japan in 2005. Is it really hindsight that he flopped? In order for Juan Castro’s glove to have as much of an impact as Dick and Bert gave it credit for in April, he’d have to be Ozzie Smith’s equal with the leather. Did anyone drink that Kool Aid? And not to let Rondell White off the hook, is it really that surprising when a player who has played over 140 games once in his 11-plus year career comes down with a shoulder injury that affects his ability to hit significantly? And better yet, why wasn’t this shoulder diagnosed in April instead of letting White kill the line-up?
The problem is that Gardenhire and Ryan’s early decisions were akin to giving the 2006 season herpes. The two at least should man up and take some responsibility.
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