Okay. Here's an open forum posting that all you cats asked for to Kibitz, and propose topics. It's more of a way of saying "I'm lazy and I've got to catch a flight to Chicago in an hour to record some stuff so I don't have time to write anything of merit" but then again you asked for it.
So, what topics need to be addressed here? And here are a few thoughts.
• Will Carroll had an excellent Kibitzing column in Baseball Prospectus yesterday. One of the more interesting points was that baseball's new "steroid" laws seem to have players afraid of taking any supplements, including simple protein shakes. The end result will lead to more injuries. I ask this, is this steroid hunt nothing more than the new Salem Witch trials?
• Carroll also added some veracity to the Jacque Jones to St. Louis rumors.
• Also in Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan made a comment that the Marlins deserved to be whacked for selling off their club for the second time because the citizens of South Florida wouldn't build them a new baseball stadium and wonders whether or not contracting them along with the Royals would be a bad thing. Meanwhile, Carl Pohlad made comments that the team has lost $15 million dollars a year for the last four years, the only lie that could be more blatantly obvious would be Britney Spears claming to still be a virgin . How many times can you cry wolf before no one pays attention?
• Not a current news article, but am I the only one who thinks a Corey Patterson for Kyle Lohse trade isn't that bad of an idea, especially with Denard Span looking like the second coming of Otis Nixon?
Kibitz away.
Tuesday, November 29, 2005
Monday, November 28, 2005
A Field Guide to North American Pitchers: The Perry Burkettium
Introduction: Three and a half centuries ago, Carl Linnaeus set out on a monsterous task of classifying all living creatures. A task so monumental that, to this day, it remains incomplete. Sure pretty much every plant, animal and bacteria has been classified as homo sapien or whatever. But to this days, thousands of poor baseball pitchers have yet to be classified. Which is a pity, because it really shouldn't be that hard to add them to the list.
At the Order level of classification, there are only two groups for North American Pitchers. They're either in the Young Order (re: starters) or the Marberry Order (re: relievers). A pitcher in the Young Order is then divided into one of two Families, the Alexander Family (re: Righties) and the Spahn Family (re: Southpaws). From there, Pitchers are divided into Genu
ses and Species. Today, we'll be taking a closer look at one species of pitcher, the Perry Burkettium, for closer examination.
Overview: The Perry Burkettium (Genus: Perry, Species:Burkett), pictured to the right in it's native environment, is a pitcher common to the back-half of rotations throught the United States and Canada. In 2005, this pitcher could be seen for a small admission charge on mounds in San Francisco, Chicago, and Minnesota, to name but a few.
Identifying traits of the Perry Burkettium: The Perry Burkettium takes belongs to the Perry Genus, generally noted for having straight fastballs a tick abo
ve average that they normally try to get sink on. The Burkett Species from the Perry Genus is easily identifible by several trademarks. Burkett is Baseball speak for a pitcher with a wide variety of average pitches, and for the most part that's how you distinguish the Burkettium from other members of the Perry Genus. Because the Burkettium doesn't do any one thing spectacularly, it needs to rely on good control of its pitches to survive. It doesn't have the pinpoint control of the related Perry Reedus, pictured to the left, and generally is not as successful for that reason.
If you're trying to identify from a stat line, the first place to look is the league ERA section. Generally the Burkettium is generally right at 100 (or league average) in that department. Because the Burkettium by limiting walks, it generally has a good BB/9 rate, and sometimes sneaks into the top-10 in its league in that figure. Its strikeout figures are generally below league average though, so to compensate the Burkettium also can't be too home-run prone. The trademark of the young Burkettium is a general maddening inconsistency. During one start, it will sometimes appear like a much more successful species, disguising itself as a Johnson Clemensius for example. Other times, it will disguise itself as a much less successful specius, say a Tewksberry Lincolnite. Generally these shifts are caused by the quality of the line-up the Burkettium is facing, although often this inconsistency put them in their manager's doghouse.
Images of the Perry Burkettium in the wild: Here are more examples of the Perry Burkettium in its natural habitats.
Trade Value of The Perry Burkettium: Although average in nature, the Perry Burkettium does find itself in demand, especially among teams that rely on weaker pitchers by nature. Here's some examples of trades involving memebers of the Perry Burkettium species:
July 31, 2003: The Pittsburgh Pirates Jeff Suppan, Brandon Lyon and Anastacio Martinez to the Boston Red Sox for Mike Gonzalez, Freddy Sanchez, and cash
February 10, 2000: The Cincinnati Reds Brett Tomko, Jake Meyer, Mike Cameron, and Antonio Perez to the Seattle Mariners for Ken Griffey, Jr.
December 11, 2001: The Seattle Mariners traded Brett Tomko, Tom Lampkin, Ramon Vazquez, and cash to the San Diego Padres for Ben Davis, Alex Arias, and Wascar Serrano.
December 22, 1994: The San Francisco Giants traded John Burkett to the Texas Rangers for Rich Aurilia and Desi Wilson.
November 16, 2002: The Oakland Athletics traded Cory Lidle to the Toronto Blue Jays for Christopher Mowday and Michael Rouse.
August 9, 2004: The Cincinnati Reds traded Cory Lidle to the Philadelphia Phillies for a player to be named later, Javon Moran, and Joe Wilson. The Philadelphia Phillies sent Elizardo Ramirez (August 11, 2004) to the Cincinnati Reds to complete the trade
December 11, 1975: The New York Yankees traded Doc Medich to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Willie Randolph, Ken Brett, and Dock Ellis.
Sometimes, as in the Griffey trade, the Burkettium is packaged to attract something big (although in the Griffey trade, it's important to note that Antonio Perez and Mike Cameron were the keys to the trade). More often than not though, the Burkettium is dealt for one or two B-level prospects. If the Burkettium is dealt for a major league player, that player is generally fairly average itself, although sometimes said player will have some upside to him. That value can also be deceiving if the specium is coming off a surprisingly big year, like the one who threw for the White Sox had this year.
In terms of compensation, the Burkettium usually finds himself in the $3 to $5 million dollar range once mature enough to hit the free agent market.
Exercises for Review:
1. Name one other member of the Perry Burkettium species that wasn't named here.
2. Come up with a fair trade involving a member of the Perry Burkettium Species from the Twins.
At the Order level of classification, there are only two groups for North American Pitchers. They're either in the Young Order (re: starters) or the Marberry Order (re: relievers). A pitcher in the Young Order is then divided into one of two Families, the Alexander Family (re: Righties) and the Spahn Family (re: Southpaws). From there, Pitchers are divided into Genu
ses and Species. Today, we'll be taking a closer look at one species of pitcher, the Perry Burkettium, for closer examination.Overview: The Perry Burkettium (Genus: Perry, Species:Burkett), pictured to the right in it's native environment, is a pitcher common to the back-half of rotations throught the United States and Canada. In 2005, this pitcher could be seen for a small admission charge on mounds in San Francisco, Chicago, and Minnesota, to name but a few.
Identifying traits of the Perry Burkettium: The Perry Burkettium takes belongs to the Perry Genus, generally noted for having straight fastballs a tick abo
ve average that they normally try to get sink on. The Burkett Species from the Perry Genus is easily identifible by several trademarks. Burkett is Baseball speak for a pitcher with a wide variety of average pitches, and for the most part that's how you distinguish the Burkettium from other members of the Perry Genus. Because the Burkettium doesn't do any one thing spectacularly, it needs to rely on good control of its pitches to survive. It doesn't have the pinpoint control of the related Perry Reedus, pictured to the left, and generally is not as successful for that reason.If you're trying to identify from a stat line, the first place to look is the league ERA section. Generally the Burkettium is generally right at 100 (or league average) in that department. Because the Burkettium by limiting walks, it generally has a good BB/9 rate, and sometimes sneaks into the top-10 in its league in that figure. Its strikeout figures are generally below league average though, so to compensate the Burkettium also can't be too home-run prone. The trademark of the young Burkettium is a general maddening inconsistency. During one start, it will sometimes appear like a much more successful species, disguising itself as a Johnson Clemensius for example. Other times, it will disguise itself as a much less successful specius, say a Tewksberry Lincolnite. Generally these shifts are caused by the quality of the line-up the Burkettium is facing, although often this inconsistency put them in their manager's doghouse.
Images of the Perry Burkettium in the wild: Here are more examples of the Perry Burkettium in its natural habitats.
Trade Value of The Perry Burkettium: Although average in nature, the Perry Burkettium does find itself in demand, especially among teams that rely on weaker pitchers by nature. Here's some examples of trades involving memebers of the Perry Burkettium species:
July 31, 2003: The Pittsburgh Pirates Jeff Suppan, Brandon Lyon and Anastacio Martinez to the Boston Red Sox for Mike Gonzalez, Freddy Sanchez, and cash
February 10, 2000: The Cincinnati Reds Brett Tomko, Jake Meyer, Mike Cameron, and Antonio Perez to the Seattle Mariners for Ken Griffey, Jr.
December 11, 2001: The Seattle Mariners traded Brett Tomko, Tom Lampkin, Ramon Vazquez, and cash to the San Diego Padres for Ben Davis, Alex Arias, and Wascar Serrano.
December 22, 1994: The San Francisco Giants traded John Burkett to the Texas Rangers for Rich Aurilia and Desi Wilson.
November 16, 2002: The Oakland Athletics traded Cory Lidle to the Toronto Blue Jays for Christopher Mowday and Michael Rouse.
August 9, 2004: The Cincinnati Reds traded Cory Lidle to the Philadelphia Phillies for a player to be named later, Javon Moran, and Joe Wilson. The Philadelphia Phillies sent Elizardo Ramirez (August 11, 2004) to the Cincinnati Reds to complete the trade
December 11, 1975: The New York Yankees traded Doc Medich to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Willie Randolph, Ken Brett, and Dock Ellis.
Sometimes, as in the Griffey trade, the Burkettium is packaged to attract something big (although in the Griffey trade, it's important to note that Antonio Perez and Mike Cameron were the keys to the trade). More often than not though, the Burkettium is dealt for one or two B-level prospects. If the Burkettium is dealt for a major league player, that player is generally fairly average itself, although sometimes said player will have some upside to him. That value can also be deceiving if the specium is coming off a surprisingly big year, like the one who threw for the White Sox had this year.
In terms of compensation, the Burkettium usually finds himself in the $3 to $5 million dollar range once mature enough to hit the free agent market.
Exercises for Review:
1. Name one other member of the Perry Burkettium species that wasn't named here.
2. Come up with a fair trade involving a member of the Perry Burkettium Species from the Twins.
Tuesday, November 22, 2005
Organization Report: Second Base
ed note. Sorry I didn't post this sooner to keep the debate flowing.
Key
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
The Cast
Nick Punto
DOB—11-8-1977 AGE: 27
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Trade with Philadelphia, 2003
Career Stats
Luis Rivas
DOB—8-31-1979 AGE: 26
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 1995
Career Stats
Luis Rodriguez
DOB—6-27-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 199723
Career Stats
Brent Abernathy
DOB—9-23-1977 AGE: 28
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Luis Maza
DOB—6-22-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 1998
Career Stats
Felix Molina
DOB—5-5-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 21st round, 2001
Career Stats
Jake Mauer
DOB—12-20-1978 AGE: 26
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 23rd round, 2001
Career Stats
Tommy Watkins
DOB—6-18-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 38th Round, 1998
Career Stats
Kaulana Kuhaulua
DOB—1-30-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 12th Round, 2002
Career Stats
Luke Hughes
DOB—8-2-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2002
Career Stats
Paul Rutgers
DOB—1-17-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2001
Career Stats
Juan Portes
DOB—11-26-1985 AGE: 19
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 15th Round, 2004
Career Stats
Drew Thompson
DOB—11-7-1986 AGE: 18
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 2nd Round Supplemental, 2005
Career Stats
Michael Lysaught
DOB—9-30-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2003
Career Stats
Odannys Valdez
DOB—5-9-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2002
Career Stats
The Skinny
The great thing about Word is the built-in Thesaurus. If you don’t think a word, any word, say “horrific” for example, it will give you a boatload of alternatives. Ghastly. Shocking. Appalling. Sickening. Gruesome. Dreadful. The problem is going down the entire list of these words, not one of them sums up how bad Nick Punto was last season accurately enough. Punto clocked in with some of the worst numbers a Twins’ starting second baseman has put up since the Steve Lombardozzi era. At the plate, his VORP clocked in at-0.4. What does that mean, per se? That just about any Augie Ojeda or Michael Moriarty could have come up and given the same effort at the plate that Punto did last year.
This, my friends, is where the Twins’ offensive problems start.
That’s not to say Punto is waste of a bench spot. He brings some assets to the table that the other middle infielders don’t His glove is a redeeming quality, and he’s able to play a strong shortstop. A good second base. He can also play all three outfield spots. Punto is also legitimately fast for a white boy, which isn’t as big of an insult as it was a decade ago, and can swipe a base when needed. In those ways, he’s a better version of Denny Hocking. The only problem is he’s kind of like Homer Simpson in the episode of the Simpsons where he becomes a boxer. Hitting just isn’t his thing. And when you ask too much of him bad things happen, just like what happened to Homer in his Dredrick Tatum fight. Which makes it odd that Gardenhire didn’t lose patience with Punto last year. In fact, quite the opposite happened. Instead, Gardenhire decided the best course of action was to stick him in the #2 spot, where he’d get more chances to showcase his mediocrity.
Though in many ways, it wasn’t Punto’s fault. If Luis Rivas didn’t think sloth was far and away the best Seven Deadly sin, Punto likely wouldn’t have been more than a utility man last year. And Rivas likely wouldn’t be looking for work right now, probably in a Jim Bowden run organization. But still, Gardenhire has to take a lion’s share of the blame for sticking with Punto (when better internal options existed) , because that was one of the biggest factors in the Twins decline last year. While one player can’t make the difference between complete failure and success, it can often mean the difference between mediocrity and success. Sub in Orlando Hudson for Punto last year and you’re looking at a gain of 4 or 5 wins, which suddenly puts the team at 87 to 88 wins. Sub in a true All-Star at second, and you’re looking at a gain of 10 wins, which while still being a bigger long shot than picking the right number on a roulette wheel, does lend some credence to hoping Bret Boone could rebound in Minnesota. That said, Boone’s Robbie Alomar impersonation didn’t help matters any.
To put a lot of words into a quick summary, this is a position where something needs to be done. If Punto is the starting second sacker come April. I prescribe a heavy dose of rum and cokes, hold the coke.
That said, even if every free agent spurns Minnesota, there are internal options that are better solutions than Punto. Brent Abernathy is one. He’s added a good deal of sock since the days when he washed out with the Devil Rays, and is deserving of a second shot. In fact, if he hadn’t gotten hurt shortly after his call-up, he may have had this starting position locked up. Abernathy is a lot like a Mark Loretta/Ron Belliard kind of player. He has a little bit of pop, knows the strike zone, steals bases well, and plays defense. What he needs is an extended shot at second base. Outrighted by the Twins at the beginning of October, if I were his agent I’d recommend he stuck around the organization. With the black hole still looming at the position, he’ll probably get another chance.
Luis Rodriguez also outplayed Punto last year, in part because he hit for average and Punto didn’t. In many ways though, Punto and L-Rod are the same players, with the difference being Punto is a lot faster and L-Rod is a lot less prone to the strikeout, which probably makes L-Rod a better bet to hit for average at the major league level. A good comp for Rodriguez may be a player like Mark Ellis, and given L-Rod’s increase in doubles the last couple of years, there may be a power spike coming his way too.
There is a bright side to this though. Unlike catcher or first base, you can point your fingers on to a few prospects who could be very legitimate. But then again, the best of them are a little too far down the system to get overly excited.
Luis Maza was one of the few second baseman who played at Rochester who didn’t get a shot in Minnesota last year. But it wasn’t because of his numbers. Over the last two years, Maza has developed a good deal of pop, going from 5 to 12 to 17 homeruns over the last three years. His PECOTA comp who had the best career is David Bell, But someone like Mark Lewis may be a better comparison. The biggest thing to worry about with Maza is whether or not he’d be an OBP sinkhole in Minnesota.
Felix Molina has been something of a stealth prospect. The Twins drafted three Puerto Ricans in the 2001 draft—Angel Garcia, Jose Morales and Molina. The beauty of the draft is who believed Molina would be the furthest along four years later? Molina’s biggest strength is that he’s fairly average across the board, meaning he doesn’t have one great strength but he isn’t really crippled by any weakness either. His second biggest strength is that he’s only 22, and has some room to improve.
There’s probably a certain bit of nepotism involved with Jake Mauer. But he did inherit his brother’s smarts at the plate and if there’s anything the Twins need it’s more smart hitters in the minors. Tis a shame he didn’t inherit his brother’s bat speed, though.
Unlike the other two second baseman who played above him at New Britain, Tommy Watkins does have one major asset going for him in his speed, and has done a decent job controlling the strike zone in recent years. He also plays shortstop and third baseman, so he has a better shot than Molina or Mauer of landing a utility role. Then again, given the number of those types of players in the Twins’ system, you’d be forgiven if you thought the Twins had a Jango Fett they were cloning in some secret facility in Fort Myers, producing the future genereations of Nick Puntos and Cleatus Davidsons for the team to use.
If we were grading people on the coolness of their names, Kaulana Kuhaulua would be Kaulana Kuhaulua. But we aren’t. And instead Kuhaulua needs to get healthy and establish himself in the high minors.
If Paul Rutgers could keep putting up years like he did at age-19 in the GCL, he’d be in the majors pretty soon. If Tommy Tutone could keep putting out songs like 867—5309 (Jenny) he’d be in the Rock n’ Roll Hall of Fame. Unfortunately both of them are shaping up to be one-hit wonders.
Fellow Australian Luke Hughes, however, right now is in a position to be more of a two-hit wonder, like the Outfield or .38 Special. His only down year in the system, in fact, was last year. Some people say the hardest jump in the minors is the one from Single-A to Double-A. But the jump from short-season to full-season ball seems to kill off more prospects. Hughes has some talents, notably a solid line-drive bat that was once compared to Joe Randa’s and a little bit of pop. But he’ll need to adjust to full-season ball to get there.
Likewise, a lot of the things that came into play with Hughes moving to full-season now come into play for Juan Portes this season. Given Portes’ success in his first two minor-league seasons, you hope and pray he survives the jump. But you also have to have in the back of your head players like Ruben Salazar who didn’t. There are clear differences between Salazar and Portes that favor the current Twin prospect. Portes is a lot younger than Salazar was when he hit .401 for Elizabtheton back in 1999. Portes also has two big seasons under his belt now, whereas Salazar only slugged .348 in the GCL before his breakout. One of the key tenants of a book like Moneyball to remember is that the further a prospect is from the Majors, the foggier your tea leaves need to be on him. Portes has more upside than any hitter in the organization. That said, Elizabethton is a long ways from Minneapolis. Be cautiously optimistic.
The same things can be said about Drew Thompson, who’s high ceiling is probably pretty close to the slick fielding second-baseman with some pop that his father was.
Of the other second-basemen who played at, Odannys Valdez is worth noting for his speed and on-base percentage combo and Michael Lysaught is worth mentioning because, well, it’s hard not to like those Aussies.
Jewscott Ranks the Prospects
1. Juan Portes
2. Drew Thompson
3. Luis Maza
4. Luke Hughes
5. Felix Molina
6. Odannys Valdez
Questions for Discussion
1. How big of a problem was Nick Punto at second base? And what are the implications if he starts at second for the Twins in 2006
2. How were the Twins able to stay competitive with an offensive hole like Rivas at second, but not with one like Punto?
3. Can a solution to the second base problem be as simple as a healthy Brent Abernathy? Or does the team need more?
4. Same question, substitute Luis Rodriguez for Abernathy.
5. If thrown into the job, can Luis Maza succeed and why?
6. Who is the Twins top second base prospect?
7. On a scale from 1-10, how do you rank the team’s depth at this position?
Key
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
The Cast
Nick Punto
DOB—11-8-1977 AGE: 27
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Trade with Philadelphia, 2003
Career Stats
Luis Rivas
DOB—8-31-1979 AGE: 26
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 1995
Career Stats
Luis Rodriguez
DOB—6-27-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 199723
Career Stats
Brent Abernathy
DOB—9-23-1977 AGE: 28
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Luis Maza
DOB—6-22-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 1998
Career Stats
Felix Molina
DOB—5-5-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 21st round, 2001
Career Stats
Jake Mauer
DOB—12-20-1978 AGE: 26
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 23rd round, 2001
Career Stats
Tommy Watkins
DOB—6-18-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 38th Round, 1998
Career Stats
Kaulana Kuhaulua
DOB—1-30-1980 AGE: 25
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 12th Round, 2002
Career Stats
Luke Hughes
DOB—8-2-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2002
Career Stats
Paul Rutgers
DOB—1-17-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2001
Career Stats
Juan Portes
DOB—11-26-1985 AGE: 19
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 15th Round, 2004
Career Stats
Drew Thompson
DOB—11-7-1986 AGE: 18
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 2nd Round Supplemental, 2005
Career Stats
Michael Lysaught
DOB—9-30-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2003
Career Stats
Odannys Valdez
DOB—5-9-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2002
Career Stats
The Skinny
The great thing about Word is the built-in Thesaurus. If you don’t think a word, any word, say “horrific” for example, it will give you a boatload of alternatives. Ghastly. Shocking. Appalling. Sickening. Gruesome. Dreadful. The problem is going down the entire list of these words, not one of them sums up how bad Nick Punto was last season accurately enough. Punto clocked in with some of the worst numbers a Twins’ starting second baseman has put up since the Steve Lombardozzi era. At the plate, his VORP clocked in at-0.4. What does that mean, per se? That just about any Augie Ojeda or Michael Moriarty could have come up and given the same effort at the plate that Punto did last year.
This, my friends, is where the Twins’ offensive problems start.
That’s not to say Punto is waste of a bench spot. He brings some assets to the table that the other middle infielders don’t His glove is a redeeming quality, and he’s able to play a strong shortstop. A good second base. He can also play all three outfield spots. Punto is also legitimately fast for a white boy, which isn’t as big of an insult as it was a decade ago, and can swipe a base when needed. In those ways, he’s a better version of Denny Hocking. The only problem is he’s kind of like Homer Simpson in the episode of the Simpsons where he becomes a boxer. Hitting just isn’t his thing. And when you ask too much of him bad things happen, just like what happened to Homer in his Dredrick Tatum fight. Which makes it odd that Gardenhire didn’t lose patience with Punto last year. In fact, quite the opposite happened. Instead, Gardenhire decided the best course of action was to stick him in the #2 spot, where he’d get more chances to showcase his mediocrity.
Though in many ways, it wasn’t Punto’s fault. If Luis Rivas didn’t think sloth was far and away the best Seven Deadly sin, Punto likely wouldn’t have been more than a utility man last year. And Rivas likely wouldn’t be looking for work right now, probably in a Jim Bowden run organization. But still, Gardenhire has to take a lion’s share of the blame for sticking with Punto (when better internal options existed) , because that was one of the biggest factors in the Twins decline last year. While one player can’t make the difference between complete failure and success, it can often mean the difference between mediocrity and success. Sub in Orlando Hudson for Punto last year and you’re looking at a gain of 4 or 5 wins, which suddenly puts the team at 87 to 88 wins. Sub in a true All-Star at second, and you’re looking at a gain of 10 wins, which while still being a bigger long shot than picking the right number on a roulette wheel, does lend some credence to hoping Bret Boone could rebound in Minnesota. That said, Boone’s Robbie Alomar impersonation didn’t help matters any.
To put a lot of words into a quick summary, this is a position where something needs to be done. If Punto is the starting second sacker come April. I prescribe a heavy dose of rum and cokes, hold the coke.
That said, even if every free agent spurns Minnesota, there are internal options that are better solutions than Punto. Brent Abernathy is one. He’s added a good deal of sock since the days when he washed out with the Devil Rays, and is deserving of a second shot. In fact, if he hadn’t gotten hurt shortly after his call-up, he may have had this starting position locked up. Abernathy is a lot like a Mark Loretta/Ron Belliard kind of player. He has a little bit of pop, knows the strike zone, steals bases well, and plays defense. What he needs is an extended shot at second base. Outrighted by the Twins at the beginning of October, if I were his agent I’d recommend he stuck around the organization. With the black hole still looming at the position, he’ll probably get another chance.
Luis Rodriguez also outplayed Punto last year, in part because he hit for average and Punto didn’t. In many ways though, Punto and L-Rod are the same players, with the difference being Punto is a lot faster and L-Rod is a lot less prone to the strikeout, which probably makes L-Rod a better bet to hit for average at the major league level. A good comp for Rodriguez may be a player like Mark Ellis, and given L-Rod’s increase in doubles the last couple of years, there may be a power spike coming his way too.
There is a bright side to this though. Unlike catcher or first base, you can point your fingers on to a few prospects who could be very legitimate. But then again, the best of them are a little too far down the system to get overly excited.
Luis Maza was one of the few second baseman who played at Rochester who didn’t get a shot in Minnesota last year. But it wasn’t because of his numbers. Over the last two years, Maza has developed a good deal of pop, going from 5 to 12 to 17 homeruns over the last three years. His PECOTA comp who had the best career is David Bell, But someone like Mark Lewis may be a better comparison. The biggest thing to worry about with Maza is whether or not he’d be an OBP sinkhole in Minnesota.
Felix Molina has been something of a stealth prospect. The Twins drafted three Puerto Ricans in the 2001 draft—Angel Garcia, Jose Morales and Molina. The beauty of the draft is who believed Molina would be the furthest along four years later? Molina’s biggest strength is that he’s fairly average across the board, meaning he doesn’t have one great strength but he isn’t really crippled by any weakness either. His second biggest strength is that he’s only 22, and has some room to improve.
There’s probably a certain bit of nepotism involved with Jake Mauer. But he did inherit his brother’s smarts at the plate and if there’s anything the Twins need it’s more smart hitters in the minors. Tis a shame he didn’t inherit his brother’s bat speed, though.
Unlike the other two second baseman who played above him at New Britain, Tommy Watkins does have one major asset going for him in his speed, and has done a decent job controlling the strike zone in recent years. He also plays shortstop and third baseman, so he has a better shot than Molina or Mauer of landing a utility role. Then again, given the number of those types of players in the Twins’ system, you’d be forgiven if you thought the Twins had a Jango Fett they were cloning in some secret facility in Fort Myers, producing the future genereations of Nick Puntos and Cleatus Davidsons for the team to use.
If we were grading people on the coolness of their names, Kaulana Kuhaulua would be Kaulana Kuhaulua. But we aren’t. And instead Kuhaulua needs to get healthy and establish himself in the high minors.
If Paul Rutgers could keep putting up years like he did at age-19 in the GCL, he’d be in the majors pretty soon. If Tommy Tutone could keep putting out songs like 867—5309 (Jenny) he’d be in the Rock n’ Roll Hall of Fame. Unfortunately both of them are shaping up to be one-hit wonders.
Fellow Australian Luke Hughes, however, right now is in a position to be more of a two-hit wonder, like the Outfield or .38 Special. His only down year in the system, in fact, was last year. Some people say the hardest jump in the minors is the one from Single-A to Double-A. But the jump from short-season to full-season ball seems to kill off more prospects. Hughes has some talents, notably a solid line-drive bat that was once compared to Joe Randa’s and a little bit of pop. But he’ll need to adjust to full-season ball to get there.
Likewise, a lot of the things that came into play with Hughes moving to full-season now come into play for Juan Portes this season. Given Portes’ success in his first two minor-league seasons, you hope and pray he survives the jump. But you also have to have in the back of your head players like Ruben Salazar who didn’t. There are clear differences between Salazar and Portes that favor the current Twin prospect. Portes is a lot younger than Salazar was when he hit .401 for Elizabtheton back in 1999. Portes also has two big seasons under his belt now, whereas Salazar only slugged .348 in the GCL before his breakout. One of the key tenants of a book like Moneyball to remember is that the further a prospect is from the Majors, the foggier your tea leaves need to be on him. Portes has more upside than any hitter in the organization. That said, Elizabethton is a long ways from Minneapolis. Be cautiously optimistic.
The same things can be said about Drew Thompson, who’s high ceiling is probably pretty close to the slick fielding second-baseman with some pop that his father was.
Of the other second-basemen who played at, Odannys Valdez is worth noting for his speed and on-base percentage combo and Michael Lysaught is worth mentioning because, well, it’s hard not to like those Aussies.
Jewscott Ranks the Prospects
1. Juan Portes
2. Drew Thompson
3. Luis Maza
4. Luke Hughes
5. Felix Molina
6. Odannys Valdez
Questions for Discussion
1. How big of a problem was Nick Punto at second base? And what are the implications if he starts at second for the Twins in 2006
2. How were the Twins able to stay competitive with an offensive hole like Rivas at second, but not with one like Punto?
3. Can a solution to the second base problem be as simple as a healthy Brent Abernathy? Or does the team need more?
4. Same question, substitute Luis Rodriguez for Abernathy.
5. If thrown into the job, can Luis Maza succeed and why?
6. Who is the Twins top second base prospect?
7. On a scale from 1-10, how do you rank the team’s depth at this position?
Monday, November 21, 2005
A Pre-Thanksgiving Prayer
Greetings from scenic Eugene, Oregon. Home of the 10-1 Oregon Ducks. I've been here the last couple of days, and my thoughts have been far removed from baseball. Sorry about that. But Civil War tickets will make a man do crazy things.
I should have something to write before Thanksgiving. But until then, I'm blogging in hopes of helping Peter Gammons be right for once. Thereby keeping Charley Waters wrong.
The real question though is "What would you offer for Hank Blalock?"
I should have something to write before Thanksgiving. But until then, I'm blogging in hopes of helping Peter Gammons be right for once. Thereby keeping Charley Waters wrong.
The real question though is "What would you offer for Hank Blalock?"
Wednesday, November 16, 2005
Organization Report: First Base
The Organization—First Basemen
Key
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
The Players
Justin Morneau
DOB—5-15-1981 AGE: 24
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted, 3rd Round 1999
Career Stats
Matt LeCroy
DOB: 12-13-1975 AGE:29
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted, 1st Round Supplemental, 1997
Career Stats
Garrett Jones
DOB 6-21-1981 AGE: 24
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent, 2001
Career Stats
Luis Jimenez
DOB: 5-7-1982 AGE: 23
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Danny Matienzo
DOB: 9-33-1980 AGE: 24
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted, 23rd round , 2002
Career Stats
Brock Peterson
DOB: 10-20-1983 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 49th Round, 2002
Career Stats
Johnny Woodard
DOB: 9-15-84 AGE: 21
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired, Drafted 3rd Round 2003
Career Stats
Chris Brown
DOB: 12-28-1982 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Undrafted FA, 2004
Career Stats
Erik Lis
DOB:3-8-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired: Drafted 9th Round 2005
Career Stats
Dustin Bensko
DOB: 3-6-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Undrafted Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Henry Sanchez
DOB: 11-29-1986 AGE: 18
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round Supplemental, 2005
Career Stats
Joshua Dean
DOB:12-24-1986 AGE: 18
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2004
Career Stats
Marion Knowles
DOB: 3-08-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Undrafted Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
The Skinny
Fluke or Future? For the Twins organization, that’s the $64,000 question.
12 months ago to the day, Justin Morneau seemed to be on the verge of blowing up. He’d just finished a second half in the majors where he’d hit 19 homeruns, which combined with 22 in the minors for 41 total on the year. He slugged .536. Got on-base at a .340 clip. Basically, he was everything the Twins had been looking for in a first baseman since Kent Hrbek. Hrbek, in fact, was Morneau’s #1 PECOTA comp coming into the year. #2 was Ryan Klesko. #3, Mark Teixeria. If you’re reading this, you know things didn’t work out quite as planned.
It’s two names further down the list that are more intriguing in guessing what might happen to Morneau. #11 on the list is Paul Konerko. #18 is Ben Grieve. In 2003, Konerko had a year that can best be described as god-awful, putting up a .234/.305/.399 season for reasons that can’t quite be explained. But it turned out to be just a blip on the radar screen, and Konerko rebounded with a .277/.359/.535 season in ’04. In 2001, Ben Grieve suffered into the same kind of malaise—dropping from a .279/.359/.487 line in 2000 to a .264/.372/.387 one. Blood clot problems and a feud with Lou Pinella killed off a promising career.
So which one is Justin “Prone to every disease outside of leprosy” Morneau? In all honesty, I don’t know. And I don’t think the Twins do either. It could have been major league pitchers caught up to him. It could have been bone chips in his left elbow. It could have been a mild case of the bubonic plague. It could have been a combination of the three. In truth, it really doesn’t matter what it was though. What does matter is that whatever it is its gone by April. Because Joe Mauer doesn’t pull the ball enough to be a legit clean-up hitter. And Torii Hunter doesn’t have enough do enough at the dish either. And the $5 million dollars that Terry Ryan isn’t going to buy that player on the open market. How far the Twins go in 2006 will depend on how well Morneau hits. Now for the real question. How much does that scare you?
It would seem fit that this would be the time to write a sad eulogy for Matt LeCroy. Except it’s hard to feel sad for a guy who’s probably going to a better place. With his heavy lefty platoon split and improving plate discipline, it won’t take long for a Moneyball organization to swoop in and pick him up. He’ll never be an elite starter. But to a smart GM, he’ll be a very valuable tool in hurtling a team into contention.
When you start looking through the minor leaguers, well there’s good news and bad news. The good news, to steal a line from Peter Le Fleur in Dodgeball, we don’t know who our best first base prospect is yet. It could be any one of them. The bad news? Um, it could be none of them.
Garrett Jones is on the 40 –Man roster. But the big question is for how much longer?. Right now, he’s a one-tool player—that tool being very good power. Outside of that he doesn’t hit for a respectable average, a long-swing makes him susceptible to good fastballs, and he's something of a liability on defense. Though he does make the most of the speed he has. The biggest flaw in his game though is that a ,297 on-base percentage in Rochester translates to “I didn’t think it was possible to have a lower OBP than Juan Castro” in Minnesota. Without improvement in that area, he’s doomed to have Bernardo Brito’s career.
Danny Matienzo got most of the attention this year at New Britain, but Luis Jimenez may be the better in the long run. Both of them probably outdistance Jones at this point, though. To Matienzo’s credit, all he’s done is hit since he joined the system. And he did it again in the high minors. The question is does he have the power spike in him that it’s going to take to make him useful in a LeCroy-type role at the majors. I’m going to guess no, but I’ve been wrong before. Jimenez was once a top-prospect in the Orioles system a long,long time ago in a galaxy far, far away—rating as their #4 prospect back in 2002. From a pure scouting standpoint, he has the fluid swing that suggests there could be a breakout down the road. Whether or not he does it in the Twins organization, that’s a different story, as he’s a Minor League Free Agent again next year.
Brock Peterson had an interesting year at Ft. Myers, mainly because you don’t expect to see a power spike in the cavernous ballparks in the Florida State League. He has a good idea of the strike-zone and as you’d expect from a former third baseman a fair amount of athleticism. And even if he doesn’t consolidate his power spike at New Britain next year, you still have to give him credit for being in the 90th percentile for 49th round draft picks.
Johnny Woodard was the Twins’ best first base prospect coming into the year, and probably is the Twins’ best first base prospect again this year by default. The gap by which he’s the team’s best first base prospect has been narrowed considerably, mind you. But still, while his numbers at Beloit were bad this year, you can at least point out that the broken ankle he suffered in early April may have been a reason for it. Plus, he didn’t even hit the legal drinking age until after his season was over. If he’s hitting over .300 with little power next year at Ft. Myers, it’s a good sign he’s having a bounce-back season. If he hits over .300 with good power, it’s a better sign. If he has problems making contact next year, no matter how much power he shows, it’s really not a good sign for him making the jump to AA.
Chris Brown filled in for Woodard while he was hurt, and hit well enough to get another shot to prove himself if he wants it. Dustin Bensko and Marion Knowles should take note should they get the same opportunity.
Erik Lis had a big season in Elizabethton, but there’s a certain artificial beauty to it for a couple of reasons. Bensko did most of the heavy lifting against left-handed pitchers for one. And while Lis’ OPS was .032 points higher than his predecessor at Elizabethton, he was also two years older than Woodard was last season too. It’s not uncommon for a college-trained hitter to beat up on younger pitchers in his first season before fading into obscurity. So he really can’t afford to slip up at Beloit next season. Ratcheting up his K/BB ratio would help make that possible.
It was suppose to be easier for Henry Sanchez than this. The average 18 year-old GCL pitcher was suppose to take one look at the supplemental first rounder’s 6’3” 265 lbs frame and just toss the ball over the fence himself for a homerun. It didn’t quite work that way though. Sanchez did redeem himself some with a big last week of the season that can only make you hope that his inability to touch anything the month before was just a severe case of rust. He still was Baseball America’s top high school power prospect in last year’s draft though. And the Twins did give him an awful lot of money to join the organization. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of turning it into results. If you start hearing good things about him coming from instructional league and he starts next year in Beloit, bump him up a grade.
On the flip side, Joshua Dean had a big first season for the Twins. Anytime a hitter walks more than he strikes out it’s a good sign. The Aussie needs to hit for a bit more power though, because a first baseman with .066 Isolated Power from is about as likely to get a look at the major league level as a one-armed, albino eunuch is to get a look from Pamela Anderson. He is however 18, and power is generally the last tool to develop. So don't take it like I'm damning Dean yet.
Jewscott's Prospect Rankings
1. Johnny Woodard
2. Henry Sanchez
3. Luis Jiminez
4. Joshua Dean
5. Erik Lis
6. Danny Matienzo
7. Garrett Jones
Questions for debate
1. Bum elbow or Bum plate coverage? Which one did in Morneau last year?
2. Do you believe Morneau can bounce back?
3. Should the Twins have kept LeCroy or was letting him go the right decision?
4. The Twins sent Garrett Jones to the AFL. Are they giving him more respect as a prospect than he deserves?
5. Who doyou think is the best first base prospect in the system?
6. On a scale from 1 to 10, how do you rate the Twins depth at this position?
Key
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
The Players
Justin Morneau
DOB—5-15-1981 AGE: 24
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted, 3rd Round 1999
Career Stats
Matt LeCroy
DOB: 12-13-1975 AGE:29
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted, 1st Round Supplemental, 1997
Career Stats
Garrett Jones
DOB 6-21-1981 AGE: 24
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent, 2001
Career Stats
Luis Jimenez
DOB: 5-7-1982 AGE: 23
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Danny Matienzo
DOB: 9-33-1980 AGE: 24
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted, 23rd round , 2002
Career Stats
Brock Peterson
DOB: 10-20-1983 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 49th Round, 2002
Career Stats
Johnny Woodard
DOB: 9-15-84 AGE: 21
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired, Drafted 3rd Round 2003
Career Stats
Chris Brown
DOB: 12-28-1982 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Undrafted FA, 2004
Career Stats
Erik Lis
DOB:3-8-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: L THROWS: L
Acquired: Drafted 9th Round 2005
Career Stats
Dustin Bensko
DOB: 3-6-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Undrafted Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
Henry Sanchez
DOB: 11-29-1986 AGE: 18
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round Supplemental, 2005
Career Stats
Joshua Dean
DOB:12-24-1986 AGE: 18
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2004
Career Stats
Marion Knowles
DOB: 3-08-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Undrafted Free Agent, 2005
Career Stats
The Skinny
Fluke or Future? For the Twins organization, that’s the $64,000 question.
12 months ago to the day, Justin Morneau seemed to be on the verge of blowing up. He’d just finished a second half in the majors where he’d hit 19 homeruns, which combined with 22 in the minors for 41 total on the year. He slugged .536. Got on-base at a .340 clip. Basically, he was everything the Twins had been looking for in a first baseman since Kent Hrbek. Hrbek, in fact, was Morneau’s #1 PECOTA comp coming into the year. #2 was Ryan Klesko. #3, Mark Teixeria. If you’re reading this, you know things didn’t work out quite as planned.
It’s two names further down the list that are more intriguing in guessing what might happen to Morneau. #11 on the list is Paul Konerko. #18 is Ben Grieve. In 2003, Konerko had a year that can best be described as god-awful, putting up a .234/.305/.399 season for reasons that can’t quite be explained. But it turned out to be just a blip on the radar screen, and Konerko rebounded with a .277/.359/.535 season in ’04. In 2001, Ben Grieve suffered into the same kind of malaise—dropping from a .279/.359/.487 line in 2000 to a .264/.372/.387 one. Blood clot problems and a feud with Lou Pinella killed off a promising career.
So which one is Justin “Prone to every disease outside of leprosy” Morneau? In all honesty, I don’t know. And I don’t think the Twins do either. It could have been major league pitchers caught up to him. It could have been bone chips in his left elbow. It could have been a mild case of the bubonic plague. It could have been a combination of the three. In truth, it really doesn’t matter what it was though. What does matter is that whatever it is its gone by April. Because Joe Mauer doesn’t pull the ball enough to be a legit clean-up hitter. And Torii Hunter doesn’t have enough do enough at the dish either. And the $5 million dollars that Terry Ryan isn’t going to buy that player on the open market. How far the Twins go in 2006 will depend on how well Morneau hits. Now for the real question. How much does that scare you?
It would seem fit that this would be the time to write a sad eulogy for Matt LeCroy. Except it’s hard to feel sad for a guy who’s probably going to a better place. With his heavy lefty platoon split and improving plate discipline, it won’t take long for a Moneyball organization to swoop in and pick him up. He’ll never be an elite starter. But to a smart GM, he’ll be a very valuable tool in hurtling a team into contention.
When you start looking through the minor leaguers, well there’s good news and bad news. The good news, to steal a line from Peter Le Fleur in Dodgeball, we don’t know who our best first base prospect is yet. It could be any one of them. The bad news? Um, it could be none of them.
Garrett Jones is on the 40 –Man roster. But the big question is for how much longer?. Right now, he’s a one-tool player—that tool being very good power. Outside of that he doesn’t hit for a respectable average, a long-swing makes him susceptible to good fastballs, and he's something of a liability on defense. Though he does make the most of the speed he has. The biggest flaw in his game though is that a ,297 on-base percentage in Rochester translates to “I didn’t think it was possible to have a lower OBP than Juan Castro” in Minnesota. Without improvement in that area, he’s doomed to have Bernardo Brito’s career.
Danny Matienzo got most of the attention this year at New Britain, but Luis Jimenez may be the better in the long run. Both of them probably outdistance Jones at this point, though. To Matienzo’s credit, all he’s done is hit since he joined the system. And he did it again in the high minors. The question is does he have the power spike in him that it’s going to take to make him useful in a LeCroy-type role at the majors. I’m going to guess no, but I’ve been wrong before. Jimenez was once a top-prospect in the Orioles system a long,long time ago in a galaxy far, far away—rating as their #4 prospect back in 2002. From a pure scouting standpoint, he has the fluid swing that suggests there could be a breakout down the road. Whether or not he does it in the Twins organization, that’s a different story, as he’s a Minor League Free Agent again next year.
Brock Peterson had an interesting year at Ft. Myers, mainly because you don’t expect to see a power spike in the cavernous ballparks in the Florida State League. He has a good idea of the strike-zone and as you’d expect from a former third baseman a fair amount of athleticism. And even if he doesn’t consolidate his power spike at New Britain next year, you still have to give him credit for being in the 90th percentile for 49th round draft picks.
Johnny Woodard was the Twins’ best first base prospect coming into the year, and probably is the Twins’ best first base prospect again this year by default. The gap by which he’s the team’s best first base prospect has been narrowed considerably, mind you. But still, while his numbers at Beloit were bad this year, you can at least point out that the broken ankle he suffered in early April may have been a reason for it. Plus, he didn’t even hit the legal drinking age until after his season was over. If he’s hitting over .300 with little power next year at Ft. Myers, it’s a good sign he’s having a bounce-back season. If he hits over .300 with good power, it’s a better sign. If he has problems making contact next year, no matter how much power he shows, it’s really not a good sign for him making the jump to AA.
Chris Brown filled in for Woodard while he was hurt, and hit well enough to get another shot to prove himself if he wants it. Dustin Bensko and Marion Knowles should take note should they get the same opportunity.
Erik Lis had a big season in Elizabethton, but there’s a certain artificial beauty to it for a couple of reasons. Bensko did most of the heavy lifting against left-handed pitchers for one. And while Lis’ OPS was .032 points higher than his predecessor at Elizabethton, he was also two years older than Woodard was last season too. It’s not uncommon for a college-trained hitter to beat up on younger pitchers in his first season before fading into obscurity. So he really can’t afford to slip up at Beloit next season. Ratcheting up his K/BB ratio would help make that possible.
It was suppose to be easier for Henry Sanchez than this. The average 18 year-old GCL pitcher was suppose to take one look at the supplemental first rounder’s 6’3” 265 lbs frame and just toss the ball over the fence himself for a homerun. It didn’t quite work that way though. Sanchez did redeem himself some with a big last week of the season that can only make you hope that his inability to touch anything the month before was just a severe case of rust. He still was Baseball America’s top high school power prospect in last year’s draft though. And the Twins did give him an awful lot of money to join the organization. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of turning it into results. If you start hearing good things about him coming from instructional league and he starts next year in Beloit, bump him up a grade.
On the flip side, Joshua Dean had a big first season for the Twins. Anytime a hitter walks more than he strikes out it’s a good sign. The Aussie needs to hit for a bit more power though, because a first baseman with .066 Isolated Power from is about as likely to get a look at the major league level as a one-armed, albino eunuch is to get a look from Pamela Anderson. He is however 18, and power is generally the last tool to develop. So don't take it like I'm damning Dean yet.
Jewscott's Prospect Rankings
1. Johnny Woodard
2. Henry Sanchez
3. Luis Jiminez
4. Joshua Dean
5. Erik Lis
6. Danny Matienzo
7. Garrett Jones
Questions for debate
1. Bum elbow or Bum plate coverage? Which one did in Morneau last year?
2. Do you believe Morneau can bounce back?
3. Should the Twins have kept LeCroy or was letting him go the right decision?
4. The Twins sent Garrett Jones to the AFL. Are they giving him more respect as a prospect than he deserves?
5. Who doyou think is the best first base prospect in the system?
6. On a scale from 1 to 10, how do you rate the Twins depth at this position?
Tuesday, November 15, 2005
Organization Report: Catchers
And now I present the first in a long series of blogs I'll probably never finish. A run down of the system, position by position.
Key to the Rating system
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
The Cast
Joe Mauer
DOB—4-19-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round, 2001
Career Stats
Mike Redmond
DOB—5-5-1971 AGE: 34
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Free Agent, 2004
Career Stats
Chris Heintz
DOB—8-6-1974 AGE: 31
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 2003
Career Stats
Rob Bowen
DOB—2-24-1981 AGE: 24
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 2nd Round, 1999
Career Stats
Corky Miller
DOB—3-18-1976 AGE: 29
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Claimed off Waivers, 2004
Career Stats
Gabby Torres
DOB—3-22-1978 AGE: 28
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 1995
Career Stats
Jose Morales
DOB—2-20-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 3rd Round, 2001
Career Stats
Bryan Kennedy
DOB—10-4-1978 AGE: 28
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 24th Round, 2001
Career Stats
Kyle Phillips
DOB—4-3-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 10th Round, 2002
Career Stats
Kyle Geiger
DOB—5-8-1982 AGE: 23
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 42nd Round, 2002
Career Stats
Allen De San Miguel
DOB—2-1-1988 AGE: 17
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2004
Career Stats
Javier Sanchez
DOB—11-8-1981 AGE: 23
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 14th Round, 2004
Career Stats
Korey Feiner
DOB- 9-25-1981 Age: 24
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Signed as an undrafted free agent, 2004
Career Stats
Eli Tintor
DOB—12-24-1984 AGE: 20
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 18th Round, 2003
Career Stats
Caleb Moore
DOB—5-17-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 4th Round
Career Stats
Sean Richardson
DOB—10-2-1983 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 19th Round, 2005
Career Stats
Gregory Yersich
DOB—10-7-1986 AGE: 19
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 7th Round, 2005
Career Stats
Miguel Barrientos
DOB—9-26-1986 AGE: 19
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent
Career Stats
Rodolfo Palacios
DOB—6-26-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2003
Career Stats
The Skinny
So. How would you rate Mauer’s first full-season behind the plate for the Twins? Was it every thing you expected? Or were you a little disappointed? Don’t be embarrassed if you’re in the later group. Given the way the Twins built up Mauer since drafting him, it’s only natural to be a little bit disappointed.
But still try to temper that disappointment. No matter how you slice it, Joe Mauer had a pretty historic year in 2005. In terms of the Minnesota Twins organization, it was one of the best years they’ve ever gotten from a catcher. Here’s a list of the team’s best five seasons in terms of Wins Above a Replacement Player (WARP-3), a stat that includes defensive contributions.
Player Year WARP-3
Earl Battey 1963 8.8
Muddy Ruel 1923 8.3
A.J. Pierzynski 2003 8.1
Joe Mauer 2005 8.0
Butch Wynegar 1979 7.2
Earl Battey 1962 7.2
Granted, the Twins/Senators have never had a dominant catcher in their 105 seasons of existence. (Oddly enough, the organization's one Hall-of-Famer at the position, Rick Ferrell, is absent from the list, though) Mauer, in fact stands in line to be the first. Here’s that same list redone to compare Mauer’s age-22 season to that of every catcher in the Hall-of-Fame, including Pudge Rodriguez and Mike Piazza, who will probably be there soon enough
Player Year WARP-3
Johnny Bench 1970 12.0
Joe Mauer 2005 8.0
Pudge Rodriguez 1994 6.9
Bill Dickey 1929 6.9
Ray Schalk 1915 6.7
Buck Ewing 1882 6.4
Mickey Cochrane 1925 3.6
Gary Carter 1976 3.1
Yogi Berra 1947 2.7
Gabby Hartnett 1923 2.1
Roger Bresnahan 1901 -0.2
Not in the Majors: Mike Piazza, Rick Ferrell, Roy Campanella, Josh Gibson, Carlton Fisk, Ernie Lombardi
So we finally have an answer to an age-old question. Yes, Mauer is that good. Which shouldn’t be that surprising. Down the stretch, teams were clearly pitching around Mauer when it was clear very few other hitters in the line-up could hurt you. How good can he be with the bat? I doubt we’re talking Pujols or Manny Ramirez good. He seems to be channeling the same sweet stroke that Will Clark and John Olerud used to put up a slew of .300/.400/.500 seasons in the late 80s and the whole of the 90s.
The bright side is you don’t hear many stories about the Twins moving Mauer from behind the plate. And as much as I like to bash on Ron Gardenhire, his plan to keep Mauer healthy worked like a charm. Moving Mauer out to another position now is a recipe for disaster for the Twins for two reasons. One, Mauer becomes significantly less valuable. He’s about 8 more seasons exactly like 2005 from a Cooperstown bust as a catcher. As a third baseman, it’ll take twelve or so. As a first baseman, he’ll need a further break out. As valuable as Will Clark and John Olerud were in their prime, they’re not Hall-of-Fame quality. The second reason? There’s no one currently in the system who could readily replicate a tenth of what Mauer gives the team behind the plate. The rest of this list looks about as ugly as a list of Miss Congeniality winners from your home county’s beauty pageant.
Mike Redmond is the back-up catcher. And he did one helluva fine job filling that role for the Twins last season, as he did for the Marlins during the Charles Johnson/Mike Piazza/Pudge Rodriguez eras. His problems tend to come when his forced to take too many at-bats though. The party line in Florida concerning his 2004 numbers was that when he was forced to play every day, he wore down. When he wore down, his swing started getting too long. At the same time he became a human green-light to would-be base stealers those two years, throwing out 15.2% of would be base stealers in 2003 and 21.5% in 2004.Fortunately for the Twins Mauer stayed relatively healthy, and the team only needed Redmond to catch in 45 games in 2005. His swing was there, as shown by his .311 batting average. And his arm even rebounded, as shown by Redmond throwing out 52% off would-be bases thieves. The question is does Redmond have another season like 2005 in him. And my tea leaves are a little cloudy on this one. It is hard to bet against a guy who has five .300 seasons in a reserve role. The real question is do you trust Redmond in a more expanded role should something happen to Mauer? I’m going to vote no there.
Now here’s where things thin out more than Terry Ryan’s hairline.
You have to respect Chris Heintz, if for no other reason he finally fought his way to the majors in September after a decade in the minors. He’s put up decent hitting stats in 2002 and 2005. But at the same time limited power and plate discipline probably limit his upside to okay back-up catcher. If he earns his induction into the card-carrying union of major league back-up catchers this year, he won’t have too many worries about putting his new daughter through college. But it’s likely going to take an injury to Redmond or Mauer for him to do that in the Twins organization. His high ceiling is likely being the next Mike Redmond.
Corky Miller is the other catcher who saw time with the Twins in 2005, although the fact he went 0-12 during that stint probably means you won’t be seeing him in a Twins’ uniform again any time soon. Miller isn’t as bad as his time at the Metrodome would indicate. And there was a point in time where he was a very legit catching prospect back in the Reds organization. If we’re going to talk pluses, Miller is a solid receiver and offers more power than any other catcher in the system right now, including Joe Mauer. His undoing in the high minors though has been an inability to make contact. He’s a minor league free-agent, and unlikely to return.
If the Twins had a yearbook for their minor league catchers, Rob Bowen would probably be voted most likely to one day win a starting job some day. Because in spite of all his struggles and Ron Gardenhire’s complete lack of trust in him, he’s probably the team’s best catching prospect. Like Miller, Bowen can hit the ball a long way when he makes contact. And also Miller, he makes contact about as often as Jay Leno tells a joke that’s, you know, funny. Bowen also has an arm that rivals Mauer’s and has the ability to throw out 40+% of base stealers. But in SAT analogy terms, Bowen: Gardenhire what Javier Valentin: Tom Kelly. Both catchers got called up to Minnesota when they were a little too green and earned ire from their manager for something that really wasn’t their fault. That and the fact Bowen is out of options will likely lead Bowen out of the Twins organization during Spring Training. Some other team will give him a shot, and maybe some day his big arm and power potential will translate, like it did for Valentin this year. There is also a chance he goes the route of another high draft pick with similar talents—Derek Parks. The middle ground is that he winds up being the next Henry Blanco. That’s the route I’m betting on.
Baseball America had Jose Morales as the Twins highest rated, non-Mauer catching prospect coming into the 2005 season, listing him as the organizations 31st best prospect in a special BA article. But Morales’ injury-marred 2005 season will likely change that In terms of talking positives, Morales has shown some ability to hit for average in his career. But at the same time the former second baseman is still very raw behind the plate defensively. That means the wild card in Morales’ development is power. If he can step up the number of extra-base hits in the near future, there’s a chance Morales becomes a Jason Phillips or Toby Hall type. To do that, it would probably entail him becoming a little more selective at the plate. If he doesn’t, he may find himself in the same boat Heintz is in right now, struggling to find a back-up job.
Speaking of Jason Phillips, his brother Kyle did time behind the plates of Ft Myers and New Britain this season. But then again, since he batted under .230 for the second straight year that may or may not be a good thing. His mission is a complete 180° from Morales, though in that Phillips has the decent power and solid plate discipline that made his brother a household name*. To become his brother, he needs to make contact more. Of course, when his brother was Kyle Phillips age he was a good two-levels lower. I think he’ll hit more in the future. But he may not hit enough to overcome his defensive shortcomings and earn a starting job. But he may make a good back-up down the line.
Phillips wasn’t the only New Britain catcher with a brother earning a major league paycheck last year. Bryan Kennedy is the younger brother of Angels’ second sacker Adam. Unlike Phillips, Kennedy is only a year younger than his brother instead of 7 years younger. He’s solid but far from spectacular defensively, which makes the fact that he hasn’t hit since Quad Cities all the more deadly. There’s still a chance he’s one of those catchers who makes his major league debut in his early 30s. But every passing year Kennedy doesn’t hit lowers those odds significantly.
Gabby Torres doesn’t have a brother at the major league level. He has however taken over the Brandon Marsters memorial Organizational Catcher spot, shuffling between Rochester and New Britain when needed. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Twins resign him. But more than likely, he’s off in search of an organization that’ll give him a shot.
Kyle Geiger and Javi Sanchez may not have pretty numbers. But it’s worth noting that Sanchez offers the rather odd C/CF combination.
If you made it this far after the Mauer and Redmond entries, you’re probably aching for some good news. I suppose that comes in the form that the Twins realize they’re weak at catcher on the farm and seem to be making a concerted effort to do something about it. The rumor this year around draft time was that the team really wanted Virginia H.S. catching prospect Brandon Snyder. Of course the Orioles ended that dream by scooping up Snyder way before the Twins had a chance. To compensate, the Twins spent two top-ten picks on catchers.
Caleb Moore was the highest of those picks. A fourth-rounder out of Middle Tennessee State hit well in Elizabethton. But at the same time, he was a 22-year old college senior beating up on kids who in some instances were just months removed from getting drunk at prom. Some scouts question his ability to hit for power down the line, and in that scenario he looks a lot like the guy who’ll manage him in Beloit next season, Jeff Smith. But he does flash a good arm that touched 95 miles an hour as MTSU’s closer his last year in college. If his bat fails, he could always take a crack at pitching in short relief, a la Tim Lahey. And Moore did flash a lot of pop in college. I guess all you can really do is stay tuned and see what he does in the jump to full season ball next year.
Sean Richardson was another 2005 draftee and hit more than any other catcher in the system if you don’t do crazy things like adjust for age or level. He pounded the snot out of the ball during his two years at Kansas too. So how did he last until the 19th round, you ask? Probably because of that Brian Harper-esq arm. His future may be at catcher. It may be at first base. Either way, he’ll have to keep hitting to get there while being paid to play baseball..
Eli Tintor is a former UMD quarterback recruit from the Iron Range who had a decent year in the Appy League. If he wants to keep moving up, he needs to consolidate the gains he made at the plate this season in Beloit next year.
There was a time when the Twins turned kids with big-time arms and big-time power potential who made little contact in the first two rounds. There was Derek Parks. And Javier Valentin. And Rob Bowen. The Twins drafted Greg Yersich and his big-arm, plus power potential and inability to make contact in the seventh round this year. That, my friends, is progress.
There’s a group of people who point to Allan de San Miguel filling in at Ft Myers in a pinch at the end of the year as a sign he’s a legit prospect. Those people tend to overlook that Yersich outhit him in the GCL. He’s only 17 years old. And you’ve got to love them Aussies. But he isn’t quite legit yet.
Rodolpho Palacios filled out the organization’s Rodolpho quota in the GCL this year. Miguel Barrientos had more of a chance to show what he could do, but only hit .159 which is generally generates more questions than answers. 18-year old catchers in the GCL tend to get second chances though.
Jewscott's Prospect Rankings
1. Rob Bowen
2. Chris Heintz
3. Kyle Phillips
4. Caleb Moore
5. Jose Morales
6. Greg Yersich
7. Allan de San Miguel
8. Sean Richardson
9. Bryan Kennedy
10. Eli Tintor
Questions for debate:
Is it possible for a 6’4” catcher to have a long and healthy career behind home plate?
What is Joe Mauer’s power potential?
What type of numbers do you project for Mike Redmond in 2006?
In your opinion, who is the best catching prospect currently within the Twins’ system?
On a scale of 1-10, how do you rank the team’s depth at catcher?
Key to the Rating system
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
The Cast
Joe Mauer
DOB—4-19-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round, 2001
Career Stats
Mike Redmond
DOB—5-5-1971 AGE: 34
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Free Agent, 2004
Career Stats
Chris Heintz
DOB—8-6-1974 AGE: 31
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Minor League Free Agent, 2003
Career Stats
Rob Bowen
DOB—2-24-1981 AGE: 24
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 2nd Round, 1999
Career Stats
Corky Miller
DOB—3-18-1976 AGE: 29
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Claimed off Waivers, 2004
Career Stats
Gabby Torres
DOB—3-22-1978 AGE: 28
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 1995
Career Stats
Jose Morales
DOB—2-20-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: S THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 3rd Round, 2001
Career Stats
Bryan Kennedy
DOB—10-4-1978 AGE: 28
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 24th Round, 2001
Career Stats
Kyle Phillips
DOB—4-3-1984 AGE: 21
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 10th Round, 2002
Career Stats
Kyle Geiger
DOB—5-8-1982 AGE: 23
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 42nd Round, 2002
Career Stats
Allen De San Miguel
DOB—2-1-1988 AGE: 17
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2004
Career Stats
Javier Sanchez
DOB—11-8-1981 AGE: 23
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 14th Round, 2004
Career Stats
Korey Feiner
DOB- 9-25-1981 Age: 24
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Signed as an undrafted free agent, 2004
Career Stats
Eli Tintor
DOB—12-24-1984 AGE: 20
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 18th Round, 2003
Career Stats
Caleb Moore
DOB—5-17-1983 AGE: 22
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 4th Round
Career Stats
Sean Richardson
DOB—10-2-1983 AGE: 21
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 19th Round, 2005
Career Stats
Gregory Yersich
DOB—10-7-1986 AGE: 19
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: Drafted 7th Round, 2005
Career Stats
Miguel Barrientos
DOB—9-26-1986 AGE: 19
BATS: L THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent
Career Stats
Rodolfo Palacios
DOB—6-26-1985 AGE: 20
BATS: R THROWS: R
Acquired: International Free Agent, 2003
Career Stats
The Skinny
So. How would you rate Mauer’s first full-season behind the plate for the Twins? Was it every thing you expected? Or were you a little disappointed? Don’t be embarrassed if you’re in the later group. Given the way the Twins built up Mauer since drafting him, it’s only natural to be a little bit disappointed.
But still try to temper that disappointment. No matter how you slice it, Joe Mauer had a pretty historic year in 2005. In terms of the Minnesota Twins organization, it was one of the best years they’ve ever gotten from a catcher. Here’s a list of the team’s best five seasons in terms of Wins Above a Replacement Player (WARP-3), a stat that includes defensive contributions.
Player Year WARP-3
Earl Battey 1963 8.8
Muddy Ruel 1923 8.3
A.J. Pierzynski 2003 8.1
Joe Mauer 2005 8.0
Butch Wynegar 1979 7.2
Earl Battey 1962 7.2
Granted, the Twins/Senators have never had a dominant catcher in their 105 seasons of existence. (Oddly enough, the organization's one Hall-of-Famer at the position, Rick Ferrell, is absent from the list, though) Mauer, in fact stands in line to be the first. Here’s that same list redone to compare Mauer’s age-22 season to that of every catcher in the Hall-of-Fame, including Pudge Rodriguez and Mike Piazza, who will probably be there soon enough
Player Year WARP-3
Johnny Bench 1970 12.0
Joe Mauer 2005 8.0
Pudge Rodriguez 1994 6.9
Bill Dickey 1929 6.9
Ray Schalk 1915 6.7
Buck Ewing 1882 6.4
Mickey Cochrane 1925 3.6
Gary Carter 1976 3.1
Yogi Berra 1947 2.7
Gabby Hartnett 1923 2.1
Roger Bresnahan 1901 -0.2
Not in the Majors: Mike Piazza, Rick Ferrell, Roy Campanella, Josh Gibson, Carlton Fisk, Ernie Lombardi
So we finally have an answer to an age-old question. Yes, Mauer is that good. Which shouldn’t be that surprising. Down the stretch, teams were clearly pitching around Mauer when it was clear very few other hitters in the line-up could hurt you. How good can he be with the bat? I doubt we’re talking Pujols or Manny Ramirez good. He seems to be channeling the same sweet stroke that Will Clark and John Olerud used to put up a slew of .300/.400/.500 seasons in the late 80s and the whole of the 90s.
The bright side is you don’t hear many stories about the Twins moving Mauer from behind the plate. And as much as I like to bash on Ron Gardenhire, his plan to keep Mauer healthy worked like a charm. Moving Mauer out to another position now is a recipe for disaster for the Twins for two reasons. One, Mauer becomes significantly less valuable. He’s about 8 more seasons exactly like 2005 from a Cooperstown bust as a catcher. As a third baseman, it’ll take twelve or so. As a first baseman, he’ll need a further break out. As valuable as Will Clark and John Olerud were in their prime, they’re not Hall-of-Fame quality. The second reason? There’s no one currently in the system who could readily replicate a tenth of what Mauer gives the team behind the plate. The rest of this list looks about as ugly as a list of Miss Congeniality winners from your home county’s beauty pageant.
Mike Redmond is the back-up catcher. And he did one helluva fine job filling that role for the Twins last season, as he did for the Marlins during the Charles Johnson/Mike Piazza/Pudge Rodriguez eras. His problems tend to come when his forced to take too many at-bats though. The party line in Florida concerning his 2004 numbers was that when he was forced to play every day, he wore down. When he wore down, his swing started getting too long. At the same time he became a human green-light to would-be base stealers those two years, throwing out 15.2% of would be base stealers in 2003 and 21.5% in 2004.Fortunately for the Twins Mauer stayed relatively healthy, and the team only needed Redmond to catch in 45 games in 2005. His swing was there, as shown by his .311 batting average. And his arm even rebounded, as shown by Redmond throwing out 52% off would-be bases thieves. The question is does Redmond have another season like 2005 in him. And my tea leaves are a little cloudy on this one. It is hard to bet against a guy who has five .300 seasons in a reserve role. The real question is do you trust Redmond in a more expanded role should something happen to Mauer? I’m going to vote no there.
Now here’s where things thin out more than Terry Ryan’s hairline.
You have to respect Chris Heintz, if for no other reason he finally fought his way to the majors in September after a decade in the minors. He’s put up decent hitting stats in 2002 and 2005. But at the same time limited power and plate discipline probably limit his upside to okay back-up catcher. If he earns his induction into the card-carrying union of major league back-up catchers this year, he won’t have too many worries about putting his new daughter through college. But it’s likely going to take an injury to Redmond or Mauer for him to do that in the Twins organization. His high ceiling is likely being the next Mike Redmond.
Corky Miller is the other catcher who saw time with the Twins in 2005, although the fact he went 0-12 during that stint probably means you won’t be seeing him in a Twins’ uniform again any time soon. Miller isn’t as bad as his time at the Metrodome would indicate. And there was a point in time where he was a very legit catching prospect back in the Reds organization. If we’re going to talk pluses, Miller is a solid receiver and offers more power than any other catcher in the system right now, including Joe Mauer. His undoing in the high minors though has been an inability to make contact. He’s a minor league free-agent, and unlikely to return.
If the Twins had a yearbook for their minor league catchers, Rob Bowen would probably be voted most likely to one day win a starting job some day. Because in spite of all his struggles and Ron Gardenhire’s complete lack of trust in him, he’s probably the team’s best catching prospect. Like Miller, Bowen can hit the ball a long way when he makes contact. And also Miller, he makes contact about as often as Jay Leno tells a joke that’s, you know, funny. Bowen also has an arm that rivals Mauer’s and has the ability to throw out 40+% of base stealers. But in SAT analogy terms, Bowen: Gardenhire what Javier Valentin: Tom Kelly. Both catchers got called up to Minnesota when they were a little too green and earned ire from their manager for something that really wasn’t their fault. That and the fact Bowen is out of options will likely lead Bowen out of the Twins organization during Spring Training. Some other team will give him a shot, and maybe some day his big arm and power potential will translate, like it did for Valentin this year. There is also a chance he goes the route of another high draft pick with similar talents—Derek Parks. The middle ground is that he winds up being the next Henry Blanco. That’s the route I’m betting on.
Baseball America had Jose Morales as the Twins highest rated, non-Mauer catching prospect coming into the 2005 season, listing him as the organizations 31st best prospect in a special BA article. But Morales’ injury-marred 2005 season will likely change that In terms of talking positives, Morales has shown some ability to hit for average in his career. But at the same time the former second baseman is still very raw behind the plate defensively. That means the wild card in Morales’ development is power. If he can step up the number of extra-base hits in the near future, there’s a chance Morales becomes a Jason Phillips or Toby Hall type. To do that, it would probably entail him becoming a little more selective at the plate. If he doesn’t, he may find himself in the same boat Heintz is in right now, struggling to find a back-up job.
Speaking of Jason Phillips, his brother Kyle did time behind the plates of Ft Myers and New Britain this season. But then again, since he batted under .230 for the second straight year that may or may not be a good thing. His mission is a complete 180° from Morales, though in that Phillips has the decent power and solid plate discipline that made his brother a household name*. To become his brother, he needs to make contact more. Of course, when his brother was Kyle Phillips age he was a good two-levels lower. I think he’ll hit more in the future. But he may not hit enough to overcome his defensive shortcomings and earn a starting job. But he may make a good back-up down the line.
Phillips wasn’t the only New Britain catcher with a brother earning a major league paycheck last year. Bryan Kennedy is the younger brother of Angels’ second sacker Adam. Unlike Phillips, Kennedy is only a year younger than his brother instead of 7 years younger. He’s solid but far from spectacular defensively, which makes the fact that he hasn’t hit since Quad Cities all the more deadly. There’s still a chance he’s one of those catchers who makes his major league debut in his early 30s. But every passing year Kennedy doesn’t hit lowers those odds significantly.
Gabby Torres doesn’t have a brother at the major league level. He has however taken over the Brandon Marsters memorial Organizational Catcher spot, shuffling between Rochester and New Britain when needed. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Twins resign him. But more than likely, he’s off in search of an organization that’ll give him a shot.
Kyle Geiger and Javi Sanchez may not have pretty numbers. But it’s worth noting that Sanchez offers the rather odd C/CF combination.
If you made it this far after the Mauer and Redmond entries, you’re probably aching for some good news. I suppose that comes in the form that the Twins realize they’re weak at catcher on the farm and seem to be making a concerted effort to do something about it. The rumor this year around draft time was that the team really wanted Virginia H.S. catching prospect Brandon Snyder. Of course the Orioles ended that dream by scooping up Snyder way before the Twins had a chance. To compensate, the Twins spent two top-ten picks on catchers.
Caleb Moore was the highest of those picks. A fourth-rounder out of Middle Tennessee State hit well in Elizabethton. But at the same time, he was a 22-year old college senior beating up on kids who in some instances were just months removed from getting drunk at prom. Some scouts question his ability to hit for power down the line, and in that scenario he looks a lot like the guy who’ll manage him in Beloit next season, Jeff Smith. But he does flash a good arm that touched 95 miles an hour as MTSU’s closer his last year in college. If his bat fails, he could always take a crack at pitching in short relief, a la Tim Lahey. And Moore did flash a lot of pop in college. I guess all you can really do is stay tuned and see what he does in the jump to full season ball next year.
Sean Richardson was another 2005 draftee and hit more than any other catcher in the system if you don’t do crazy things like adjust for age or level. He pounded the snot out of the ball during his two years at Kansas too. So how did he last until the 19th round, you ask? Probably because of that Brian Harper-esq arm. His future may be at catcher. It may be at first base. Either way, he’ll have to keep hitting to get there while being paid to play baseball..
Eli Tintor is a former UMD quarterback recruit from the Iron Range who had a decent year in the Appy League. If he wants to keep moving up, he needs to consolidate the gains he made at the plate this season in Beloit next year.
There was a time when the Twins turned kids with big-time arms and big-time power potential who made little contact in the first two rounds. There was Derek Parks. And Javier Valentin. And Rob Bowen. The Twins drafted Greg Yersich and his big-arm, plus power potential and inability to make contact in the seventh round this year. That, my friends, is progress.
There’s a group of people who point to Allan de San Miguel filling in at Ft Myers in a pinch at the end of the year as a sign he’s a legit prospect. Those people tend to overlook that Yersich outhit him in the GCL. He’s only 17 years old. And you’ve got to love them Aussies. But he isn’t quite legit yet.
Rodolpho Palacios filled out the organization’s Rodolpho quota in the GCL this year. Miguel Barrientos had more of a chance to show what he could do, but only hit .159 which is generally generates more questions than answers. 18-year old catchers in the GCL tend to get second chances though.
Jewscott's Prospect Rankings
1. Rob Bowen
2. Chris Heintz
3. Kyle Phillips
4. Caleb Moore
5. Jose Morales
6. Greg Yersich
7. Allan de San Miguel
8. Sean Richardson
9. Bryan Kennedy
10. Eli Tintor
Questions for debate:
Is it possible for a 6’4” catcher to have a long and healthy career behind home plate?
What is Joe Mauer’s power potential?
What type of numbers do you project for Mike Redmond in 2006?
In your opinion, who is the best catching prospect currently within the Twins’ system?
On a scale of 1-10, how do you rank the team’s depth at catcher?
Monday, November 14, 2005
Trash or Treasure
Announcer: Welcome back to the game that's sweeping the nation, Trash or Treasure.
Cue Jackie Davis' Manana (Is Soon Enough For Me)
Announcer: And here's he is, your host Jewscott and his loyal sidekick, Phlegmman.
Jewscott: Thank you. Thank you. We've got an exciting guest here tonight, so instead of a monologue I'm going to use the Star-Tribune school of humor and make random pop-culture references. Love Boat. Whizzinator. Matty LeCroy's fourth chin.
Phlegm: Yes!
Jewscott: So Phlegm, tell them about our first guest.
Phlegm: Why he's none other than Mr. Mia Hamm himself. Direct from Chicago via Boston, Nomah Garciaparra.
SFX: Canned applause
Jewscott: Thanks for coming out Nomar. So tell us a little about yourself.
Nomar: Well, J-Dub. I'm 32 years old. I turn 33 on July 23rd. I played for the Chicago Cubs this year, where I hit .283 with 9 homeruns.
Jewscott: Would you put that into slash stats for our seamhead fans?
Nomar: Sure, uh, .283/.320/.452. I did play for Theo, you know.
Jewscott: And have you been unsubstantially linked to the Twins this offseason?
Phlegm: Because it's against our rules to speculate on anything substantial.
Nomar: Yes, I have.
Jewscott: Good. So you suffered a groin injury this year?
Nomar: Yes.
Jewscott: And before that various wrist problems kept you down?
Nomar: Correct.
Jewscott: So how's your defense at short these days?
Nomar: I made a few errors when I came back.
Jewscott: And your Rate2 went from average to Jeter. Do you still think you're a shortstop?
Nomar: I'm flexible. I played some third for the Cubs last year.
Jewscott: You've been great Nomar, just one more question. How well did you hit after you came back from your groin injury, in slash stats?
Nomar: .318/.347/.531
Jewscott: Good, we wanted to let you leave on a good note. Now it goes to the panel. Is that a giant fork sticking out of Nomar's back? Or does he have something left? Is he worth offering a contract to? And if so how big of one? It's up to you, my friends.
Cue Jackie Davis' Manana (Is Soon Enough For Me)
Announcer: And here's he is, your host Jewscott and his loyal sidekick, Phlegmman.
Jewscott: Thank you. Thank you. We've got an exciting guest here tonight, so instead of a monologue I'm going to use the Star-Tribune school of humor and make random pop-culture references. Love Boat. Whizzinator. Matty LeCroy's fourth chin.
Phlegm: Yes!
Jewscott: So Phlegm, tell them about our first guest.
Phlegm: Why he's none other than Mr. Mia Hamm himself. Direct from Chicago via Boston, Nomah Garciaparra.
SFX: Canned applause
Jewscott: Thanks for coming out Nomar. So tell us a little about yourself.
Nomar: Well, J-Dub. I'm 32 years old. I turn 33 on July 23rd. I played for the Chicago Cubs this year, where I hit .283 with 9 homeruns.
Jewscott: Would you put that into slash stats for our seamhead fans?
Nomar: Sure, uh, .283/.320/.452. I did play for Theo, you know.
Jewscott: And have you been unsubstantially linked to the Twins this offseason?
Phlegm: Because it's against our rules to speculate on anything substantial.
Nomar: Yes, I have.
Jewscott: Good. So you suffered a groin injury this year?
Nomar: Yes.
Jewscott: And before that various wrist problems kept you down?
Nomar: Correct.
Jewscott: So how's your defense at short these days?
Nomar: I made a few errors when I came back.
Jewscott: And your Rate2 went from average to Jeter. Do you still think you're a shortstop?
Nomar: I'm flexible. I played some third for the Cubs last year.
Jewscott: You've been great Nomar, just one more question. How well did you hit after you came back from your groin injury, in slash stats?
Nomar: .318/.347/.531
Jewscott: Good, we wanted to let you leave on a good note. Now it goes to the panel. Is that a giant fork sticking out of Nomar's back? Or does he have something left? Is he worth offering a contract to? And if so how big of one? It's up to you, my friends.
Friday, November 11, 2005
Potential second and third base candidates
First off, I want to apologize for some delays. One of the problems with my choices in careers is that you never know when you're going to wind up staying at the office until 4 in the morning, trying to put out hundreds of little fires.
Reading through some articles that have been published recently and some of the comments, it's pretty clear that second and third base are areas the Twins are keying in on. I thought maybe it would be a good idea to run down the positives and negatives of some potential candidates, both internal and external, at those positions.
Second Base
Nick Punto
Pluses:
+ Exceptional defender
+ Great speed
+Decent eye at the plate
Negatives:
- No power whatsoever
- Will be lucky to top .260 in batting average
- Those first two points can't be emphasized enough
- Arbritration eligible
Analysis- Punto was the Twins starting second baseman for the most part of last season, and he posted a VORP of -2.0 while doing it. What does that mean precisely? That just about any second baseman in Double or Triple-A ball could have done a better job than Punto at the plate. He's a fine utility player, and his ability to play the outfield makes him a great player to have on the bench. But if he's starting for the Twins on Opening Day it simply means Ryan and Gardenhire don't get it. And that 2006 will be a lot more painful to watch than 2005 was. It would really be helpful if he changed his first name to Pokey or Neifi, just to make his skill set easier to identify.
Michael Cuddyer
Pluses
+ Decent bat
+ Turns 27 in March, meaning the potential for breakout is high
+ Very good athlete with one of the best arms in the organization
Minuses
- Struggles turning the double play
- Doesn't have great range for the position, but can make up for it with his arm by playing deeper
- Average to slightly below-average speed
- Arbritration eligible
Analysis: If Cuddyer is going to be a long-term fit in the organization, second base is probably his best bet with Kubel likely taking right field over real soon and third base being the only fairly deep position in the minors. However, if he does take over second, look for the pitchers on the staff who rely on the double play (Silva, Crain and Mulholland if he stays) to take a big hit to their ERAs.
Given the way Gardenhire has treated him the last couple of seasons, he made need a picture like this to help his cause.
Luis Rodriguez
Pluses
+ Hits for a decent average
+ Knows the strike zone
+ Solid defensively
Minuses
- Average speed at best
- No pop in his bat whatsoever
Analysis- If the Twins can't make any moves this offseason, Cuddyer at third and L-Rod at second is probably the team's best bet.
Luis Maza
Pluses
+ Some pop at the plate
+ Solid defensively
Minuses
- Horrific strike zone judgement
- Average speed at best.
- For a comparison, poor man's Luis Rivas works
Analysis: He's probably the team's third best internal option, behind Cuddyer and L-Rod, to take over second. If Glenn Williams and Brent Abernathy stick around, he's behind them too. Meaning it should take a couple of injuries to get him a shot.
Brent Abernathy
Pluses
+ Good stolen base threat
+ Has posted OPSes in excess of .800 the last two seasons.
+ Good defender
+ Knows the strike zone
Minuses
- Has shown an inability to hit at the major league level in the past
- Gardy doesn't seem to like him
Analysis: Abernathy was probably the best second baseman the Twins had last year. But injuries at inopportune times hurt him more than anything. When he was finally healthy, Gardy stuck with Punto. Which says more bad things about Gardy than it does about Abernathy. If he sticks around, he has a chance of filling the Twins vaccuum at second. And filling it well.
Mark Loretta
Pluses
+ May have been the best second baseman in baseball in 2003 and 2004
+ Does just about everything well when healthy
Minuses
- Season ruined by thumb injury
- Turns 35 next August
Analysis: The question is can Loretta bounce back from a down 2005 seasons? Given how well Loretta played in 2003 and 2004, the fact that he's only owed $3 million for 2006 and a free agent in 2007, he's probably worth the risk. The remaing questions are do the Padres really want to trade him? And what will it take to do it? Lohse and Romero for Loretta and Burroughs, as this Pads fan proposes, would be a steal for the team.
Orlando Hudson
Pluses
+ The best defensive second baseman in baseball, bar none
+ Solid hitter, with a chance to break out
Minuses
- Arbritration eligible
- Toronto seems to want to keep him and trade Corey Koskie
Analysis: Given his age and his defensive capabilities, Hudson would probably be the best fit for the Twins at second base. Yeah, it would be great to have someone who could hit like a Soriano. But given the Twins system what you're really looking for is someone who can field like Punto and hit respectably. Like Iguchi did for the White Sox this year. That's Orlando Hudson in a nut shell. The question is, will the Jays trade him?
Alfonso Soriano
Pluses
+ One of the best hitting second basemen in the game
Minuses
- One of the worst fielding second basemen ever to play the game
- Likely to make an 8-digit salary in arbritration
Analysis: Yes. It would be great to get bat into the line-up instead of Punto, who was one of the worst offensive regulars in baseball last year. But all of you Soriano fans need to ask yourself two questions. One, how do you fit his salary into payroll? And two, are Texas pitchers really that bad, or are they being hung out to dry by having Mike Young and Soriano in the middle infielder, two of the worst fielders at their positions?
Robinson Cano
Pluses
+ Good bat speed indicates an ability to hit for average
+ Some pop in his bat
Minuses
- Horrific defender
- Bad strike zone judgement
- Struggles with left-handed pitching
- A hero in New York, which may mean they don't trade him
Anaylsis: Just my two cents, but I think his skill set is more Tim Tefuel/Todd Walker than Alfonso Soriano. The Yankees are unlikely to deal him straight for Hunter, and that's fine by me. Does this line-up really need four young lefties who struggle against left-handed pitching in it?
Third Basemen
Bill Mueller
Pluses
+ Good defender
+ Good strike zone judgment
+ Solid hitter
Minuses
- Turns 35 before the season opens
Analysis: A better version of Joe Randa, you still have to worry about his age. If this is the direction the Twins want to go in, he's a fine stopgap until someone like Matt Moses is ready. But at the same time, is he really that much of an upgrade over Michael Cuddyer?
Joe Randa
Pluses
+ He had a big first half in a great hitter's park
Minuses
- He had a poor second half in a lousy hitter's park
- Lost a step defensively
Analysis: The scary part is if the Twins are dead set on moving Cuddyer off third and miss out on Mueller, this is about as good as it gets.
Corey Koskie
Pluses
+ Quality person
+ Good hitter when healthy
Minuses
- Rarely healthy these days
- Lost a step or three in the field
Analysis: For all the people in the press who can't let go of Koskie's Twin pedigree, you don't hear any of them commenting that Cuddyer had a better year than him.
Michael Cuddyer
Pluses:
See above
Minuses:
See above
Analysis: The Twins seem to want to move Cuddyer off third base. Their logic flaw is in thinking they have to. Cuddyer's best defensive position is probably third base. And while they pointed to the 15 errors he made last season, they didn't point out the number of plays he made there (more important than errors) and that he became less error prone as the season.
Terry Tiffee
Pluses
+ Okay hitter
Negatives
- Better first baseman than third baseman
Analysis: Back in the days of Ron Coomer, Tiffee would have represented an improvement. Those days are over.
Overall analysis
IMO, the best fit if the Twins want to win next year would be a Cuddyer, Bartlett, Hudson, Morneau infield. Then a Cuddyer, Bartlett, Loretta, Morneau infield. Then a Cuddyer, Bartlett, Abernathy, Morneau one. But then I don't get a vote.
The key arguement to moving Cuddyer off third, IMO, is Matt Moses and his timeline. It could be July. It could be 2007. It could be never. If you want Cuddyer to be a long-term fixture in the system, it might make sense to move him to second in deference to the fact that you may need to make space for Moses soon. The further away you think Moses is, the less sense it makes to move Cuddyer.
But then that's just my two cents.
• To me the most disturbing blurb in this article isn't the Cuddyer comment, it's this one:
"Players are identified as a good fit that we like and want," Ryan said. "There are about a half-dozen players that fit what we need. You approach them and see what you can do. We're looking for guys who can swing the bat. What position they play, we'll try to make it fit."
That's just lazy GMing. There are way more than 6 players out there who fit the Twins needs. It would also seem the fewer players you identify, the more you risk going with the status quo.
Reading through some articles that have been published recently and some of the comments, it's pretty clear that second and third base are areas the Twins are keying in on. I thought maybe it would be a good idea to run down the positives and negatives of some potential candidates, both internal and external, at those positions.
Second Base
Nick Punto
Pluses:
+ Exceptional defender
+ Great speed
+Decent eye at the plate
Negatives:
- No power whatsoever
- Will be lucky to top .260 in batting average
- Those first two points can't be emphasized enough
- Arbritration eligible
Analysis- Punto was the Twins starting second baseman for the most part of last season, and he posted a VORP of -2.0 while doing it. What does that mean precisely? That just about any second baseman in Double or Triple-A ball could have done a better job than Punto at the plate. He's a fine utility player, and his ability to play the outfield makes him a great player to have on the bench. But if he's starting for the Twins on Opening Day it simply means Ryan and Gardenhire don't get it. And that 2006 will be a lot more painful to watch than 2005 was. It would really be helpful if he changed his first name to Pokey or Neifi, just to make his skill set easier to identify.
Michael Cuddyer
Pluses
+ Decent bat
+ Turns 27 in March, meaning the potential for breakout is high
+ Very good athlete with one of the best arms in the organization
Minuses
- Struggles turning the double play
- Doesn't have great range for the position, but can make up for it with his arm by playing deeper
- Average to slightly below-average speed
- Arbritration eligible
Analysis: If Cuddyer is going to be a long-term fit in the organization, second base is probably his best bet with Kubel likely taking right field over real soon and third base being the only fairly deep position in the minors. However, if he does take over second, look for the pitchers on the staff who rely on the double play (Silva, Crain and Mulholland if he stays) to take a big hit to their ERAs.
Given the way Gardenhire has treated him the last couple of seasons, he made need a picture like this to help his cause.
Luis Rodriguez
Pluses
+ Hits for a decent average
+ Knows the strike zone
+ Solid defensively
Minuses
- Average speed at best
- No pop in his bat whatsoever
Analysis- If the Twins can't make any moves this offseason, Cuddyer at third and L-Rod at second is probably the team's best bet.
Luis Maza
Pluses
+ Some pop at the plate
+ Solid defensively
Minuses
- Horrific strike zone judgement
- Average speed at best.
- For a comparison, poor man's Luis Rivas works
Analysis: He's probably the team's third best internal option, behind Cuddyer and L-Rod, to take over second. If Glenn Williams and Brent Abernathy stick around, he's behind them too. Meaning it should take a couple of injuries to get him a shot.
Brent Abernathy
Pluses
+ Good stolen base threat
+ Has posted OPSes in excess of .800 the last two seasons.
+ Good defender
+ Knows the strike zone
Minuses
- Has shown an inability to hit at the major league level in the past
- Gardy doesn't seem to like him
Analysis: Abernathy was probably the best second baseman the Twins had last year. But injuries at inopportune times hurt him more than anything. When he was finally healthy, Gardy stuck with Punto. Which says more bad things about Gardy than it does about Abernathy. If he sticks around, he has a chance of filling the Twins vaccuum at second. And filling it well.
Mark Loretta
Pluses
+ May have been the best second baseman in baseball in 2003 and 2004
+ Does just about everything well when healthy
Minuses
- Season ruined by thumb injury
- Turns 35 next August
Analysis: The question is can Loretta bounce back from a down 2005 seasons? Given how well Loretta played in 2003 and 2004, the fact that he's only owed $3 million for 2006 and a free agent in 2007, he's probably worth the risk. The remaing questions are do the Padres really want to trade him? And what will it take to do it? Lohse and Romero for Loretta and Burroughs, as this Pads fan proposes, would be a steal for the team.
Orlando Hudson
Pluses
+ The best defensive second baseman in baseball, bar none
+ Solid hitter, with a chance to break out
Minuses
- Arbritration eligible
- Toronto seems to want to keep him and trade Corey Koskie
Analysis: Given his age and his defensive capabilities, Hudson would probably be the best fit for the Twins at second base. Yeah, it would be great to have someone who could hit like a Soriano. But given the Twins system what you're really looking for is someone who can field like Punto and hit respectably. Like Iguchi did for the White Sox this year. That's Orlando Hudson in a nut shell. The question is, will the Jays trade him?
Alfonso Soriano
Pluses
+ One of the best hitting second basemen in the game
Minuses
- One of the worst fielding second basemen ever to play the game
- Likely to make an 8-digit salary in arbritration
Analysis: Yes. It would be great to get bat into the line-up instead of Punto, who was one of the worst offensive regulars in baseball last year. But all of you Soriano fans need to ask yourself two questions. One, how do you fit his salary into payroll? And two, are Texas pitchers really that bad, or are they being hung out to dry by having Mike Young and Soriano in the middle infielder, two of the worst fielders at their positions?
Robinson Cano
Pluses
+ Good bat speed indicates an ability to hit for average
+ Some pop in his bat
Minuses
- Horrific defender
- Bad strike zone judgement
- Struggles with left-handed pitching
- A hero in New York, which may mean they don't trade him
Anaylsis: Just my two cents, but I think his skill set is more Tim Tefuel/Todd Walker than Alfonso Soriano. The Yankees are unlikely to deal him straight for Hunter, and that's fine by me. Does this line-up really need four young lefties who struggle against left-handed pitching in it?
Third Basemen
Bill Mueller
Pluses
+ Good defender
+ Good strike zone judgment
+ Solid hitter
Minuses
- Turns 35 before the season opens
Analysis: A better version of Joe Randa, you still have to worry about his age. If this is the direction the Twins want to go in, he's a fine stopgap until someone like Matt Moses is ready. But at the same time, is he really that much of an upgrade over Michael Cuddyer?
Joe Randa
Pluses
+ He had a big first half in a great hitter's park
Minuses
- He had a poor second half in a lousy hitter's park
- Lost a step defensively
Analysis: The scary part is if the Twins are dead set on moving Cuddyer off third and miss out on Mueller, this is about as good as it gets.
Corey Koskie
Pluses
+ Quality person
+ Good hitter when healthy
Minuses
- Rarely healthy these days
- Lost a step or three in the field
Analysis: For all the people in the press who can't let go of Koskie's Twin pedigree, you don't hear any of them commenting that Cuddyer had a better year than him.
Michael Cuddyer
Pluses:
See above
Minuses:
See above
Analysis: The Twins seem to want to move Cuddyer off third base. Their logic flaw is in thinking they have to. Cuddyer's best defensive position is probably third base. And while they pointed to the 15 errors he made last season, they didn't point out the number of plays he made there (more important than errors) and that he became less error prone as the season.
Terry Tiffee
Pluses
+ Okay hitter
Negatives
- Better first baseman than third baseman
Analysis: Back in the days of Ron Coomer, Tiffee would have represented an improvement. Those days are over.
Overall analysis
IMO, the best fit if the Twins want to win next year would be a Cuddyer, Bartlett, Hudson, Morneau infield. Then a Cuddyer, Bartlett, Loretta, Morneau infield. Then a Cuddyer, Bartlett, Abernathy, Morneau one. But then I don't get a vote.
The key arguement to moving Cuddyer off third, IMO, is Matt Moses and his timeline. It could be July. It could be 2007. It could be never. If you want Cuddyer to be a long-term fixture in the system, it might make sense to move him to second in deference to the fact that you may need to make space for Moses soon. The further away you think Moses is, the less sense it makes to move Cuddyer.
But then that's just my two cents.
• To me the most disturbing blurb in this article isn't the Cuddyer comment, it's this one:
"Players are identified as a good fit that we like and want," Ryan said. "There are about a half-dozen players that fit what we need. You approach them and see what you can do. We're looking for guys who can swing the bat. What position they play, we'll try to make it fit."
That's just lazy GMing. There are way more than 6 players out there who fit the Twins needs. It would also seem the fewer players you identify, the more you risk going with the status quo.
Tuesday, November 08, 2005
Three-for-one
Tom Verducci had this interesting little column that had three interesting little tidbits of concern to Twins fans.
• The Yankees definitely won't be trading Robinson Cano for Torii Hunter. Which is just fine and dandy in my book.
• Jim Thome is a horrible risk, according to one baseball executive.
• Torii Hunter supposedly took a swing at Justin Morneau during the now-famed September brawl between the two.
Which leaves only one question. Does anyone find any of this at all surprising?
• In other news, 29 voters can, in fact, be very wrong.
• The Yankees definitely won't be trading Robinson Cano for Torii Hunter. Which is just fine and dandy in my book.
• Jim Thome is a horrible risk, according to one baseball executive.
• Torii Hunter supposedly took a swing at Justin Morneau during the now-famed September brawl between the two.
Which leaves only one question. Does anyone find any of this at all surprising?
• In other news, 29 voters can, in fact, be very wrong.
Monday, November 07, 2005
The Apocalypse is N're
I'm almost positive of it. Driving back from Chicago this weekend I heard an R&B cover of Extreme's classic must-be-played-at-every wedding song More Than Words, which I believe is sign #71 of the coming end of the world, right after the Twins starting an all-white outfield.
I suppose I could turn this into a blog entry full of Extreme jokes. They come as easily to me as Whizzinator jokes come to Jim Souhan. Instead, I'll use Extreme as a launching pad into what's coming next here. Extreme's last album was called III Sides to Every Story, complete with three sides aptly named Yours, Mine, and the Truth. And it's the perfect description of what I'm working on as we speak, when I get inspired and such.
Essentially, it's an evalution of every player in the Twins system. The goal is to get some intelligent conversation going on the state of each position in the organization. To identify sleeper prospects, and detect who might have something of a break out year at the major league level. To ask questions like what chance does Francisco Liriano have of being the next Johan Santana, and who is the best first base prospect in the system anyways? Hey, if the folks at The Hardball Times can put out their own annual, why can't I do the same thing for the Twins?
Essentially the goal is to put my two cents on paper, and hope that others will add theirs as well in an effort towards getting near the truth. So I swiped an old rating system from Daniel Levine's PPS site and hired a poor man's Souhan to crack one-liners about every player in the system. Essentially the rating system works this way:
Key
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
When will it be up? I'm hoping to do it all over the course of the next month, which given how insane my schedule has been travelling for work lately may be asking a bit too much. Hopefully the catcher's installment will be up tomorrow or Wednesday, which means I'll have to finish it on my red-eye flight to LA tonight. I'm not bringing any books with me, so I suppose it's possible. Stay tuned.
• Mueller Time?: The Strib had an interesting article about what the Twins might do this offseason, which has lead me to the conclusion have no idea what they want to do this offseason aside from making a run at Bill Mueller. Going after Mueller is one of those moves that makes sense, but then again it really doesn't if you think about it. By all accounts, Mueller was one of the top-4 third basemen in the AL last year, with A-Rod being the head of the class and Eric Chavez and Melvin Mora being the only other two clearly heads and shoulder ahead of Mueller. That said the group immediately below Mueller (and Hank Blalock) included the AL Central stalwarts of Joe Crede, Brandon Inge and Michael Cuddyer.
Is going after Mueller improving a position? To quote Flight of the Conchords, yes, technically yes. He's not going to be challenging A-Rod's numbers, but Mueller is a good defender and a better version of Joe Randa at the plate, with similar power numbers and a higher OBP. At the same time, you have to wonder at what point do the Twins give Cuddyer any credit at third base. He improved defensively and offensively after a horrific April and was the team's best hitter after the All-Star break in the non-Luis Rivas division. Yet still, Gardenhire refuses to mention him as part of the team's 2006 plans, which may speak to why Gardenhire shouldn't be managing the club than his foolish "This team really misses Henry Blanco" comments earlier in the year.
I suppose I could turn this into a blog entry full of Extreme jokes. They come as easily to me as Whizzinator jokes come to Jim Souhan. Instead, I'll use Extreme as a launching pad into what's coming next here. Extreme's last album was called III Sides to Every Story, complete with three sides aptly named Yours, Mine, and the Truth. And it's the perfect description of what I'm working on as we speak, when I get inspired and such.
Essentially, it's an evalution of every player in the Twins system. The goal is to get some intelligent conversation going on the state of each position in the organization. To identify sleeper prospects, and detect who might have something of a break out year at the major league level. To ask questions like what chance does Francisco Liriano have of being the next Johan Santana, and who is the best first base prospect in the system anyways? Hey, if the folks at The Hardball Times can put out their own annual, why can't I do the same thing for the Twins?
Essentially the goal is to put my two cents on paper, and hope that others will add theirs as well in an effort towards getting near the truth. So I swiped an old rating system from Daniel Levine's PPS site and hired a poor man's Souhan to crack one-liners about every player in the system. Essentially the rating system works this way:
Key
Elite Player
Good Starter/Blue Chip Prospect
Solid Starter/B-Level Prospect
Role Player/C-Level Prospect
Fringe Player/Prospect Worth Knowing
Organization Solider
When will it be up? I'm hoping to do it all over the course of the next month, which given how insane my schedule has been travelling for work lately may be asking a bit too much. Hopefully the catcher's installment will be up tomorrow or Wednesday, which means I'll have to finish it on my red-eye flight to LA tonight. I'm not bringing any books with me, so I suppose it's possible. Stay tuned.
• Mueller Time?: The Strib had an interesting article about what the Twins might do this offseason, which has lead me to the conclusion have no idea what they want to do this offseason aside from making a run at Bill Mueller. Going after Mueller is one of those moves that makes sense, but then again it really doesn't if you think about it. By all accounts, Mueller was one of the top-4 third basemen in the AL last year, with A-Rod being the head of the class and Eric Chavez and Melvin Mora being the only other two clearly heads and shoulder ahead of Mueller. That said the group immediately below Mueller (and Hank Blalock) included the AL Central stalwarts of Joe Crede, Brandon Inge and Michael Cuddyer.
Is going after Mueller improving a position? To quote Flight of the Conchords, yes, technically yes. He's not going to be challenging A-Rod's numbers, but Mueller is a good defender and a better version of Joe Randa at the plate, with similar power numbers and a higher OBP. At the same time, you have to wonder at what point do the Twins give Cuddyer any credit at third base. He improved defensively and offensively after a horrific April and was the team's best hitter after the All-Star break in the non-Luis Rivas division. Yet still, Gardenhire refuses to mention him as part of the team's 2006 plans, which may speak to why Gardenhire shouldn't be managing the club than his foolish "This team really misses Henry Blanco" comments earlier in the year.
Friday, November 04, 2005
Thank God for Pat Gillick
Just when I was most afraid the Twins would do something stupid, Pat Gillick swoops in and hints the wrong man is on the market
The Ghost of Jim Thome Past
The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that the Twins have inquired about the availability of first baseman Jim Thome, who played in only 59 games last season because of a hand injury. Thome has $43.5 million left on the final three seasons of his contract, a figure the Twins wouldn't even consider taking over. However, Thome would be a perfect fit for the Twins. If somehow the Phillies would pay a large part of Thome's contract to trade him, it is possible something could happen.
Sid Hartman’s column, Novemer 3, 2005
A couple of months ago, I was back in San Francisco—hanging out with my best friend from high school and his girlfriend. We were riding in his car to go get some dinner, when she brought up the subject of modern music and Kurt Cobain.
“Music today is so bad,” said a snotty 22-year old girl. “It’s a shame Kurt had to kill himself,” continued the girl who who was 11 when Cobain took a shotgun to his head “because at the very least he’d be making music to day, and it would be great.”
At this point in the conversation, my head fell into my hand shaking in disbelief. And I countered with one simple line published in Cobain’s journals. “I hope I die before I’m Pete Townshend.” Which shook her a bit, partially because I don’t think she knew who Pete Townshend was. Or if she did, she associated him with the pedophile Pete Townshend of today. Not the formerly brilliant songwriter from the Who. Either way, I explained to her what it meant. Townshend, the former genius who penned the line “I hope I die before I get old,” had in fact gotten old. And Cobain, self-aware as ever, knew he’d be there some day too.
The 22-year old girl, more stuck in the 90s than me, countered that Trent Reznor hadn’t gotten old. But seriously, have you ever look at Reznor’s career path? He’s been in decline since Pretty Hate Machine.
That’s the biggest problem in life. People do brilliant things and then completely fall off. Jack Kerouac? Sure he wrote On the Road and Dharma Bums. But at the end of his life he was living in his mother’s basement drinking homemade wine and playing an early version of Strat-o-Matic baseball. Robert Oppenheimer? Seriously what did he do after the atomic bomb? Sid Hartman? Sure he used to write good columns back in the day, But over the past two decades there has been a gradual decay into the caricature Walter Matthieu played in Grumpy Old Men. Jim Thome? Sure, he can hit a baseball a country mile. But how often does he make contact any more?
Let’s review the facts. Jim Thome is coming off an injury-plagued year. Jim Thome hit .207/.360/.357 in 2005. Jim Thome turned 35 on August 27th. According to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system, the six most similar players to Thome coming into 2005 were Willie McCovey, Mark McGwire, Harmon Killebrew. Boog Powell, Reggie Jackson and Frank Howard. How did those players perform from ages 34 to 37 (Thome’s last year on his current contract) on you ask?
Sid Hartman’s column, Novemer 3, 2005
A couple of months ago, I was back in San Francisco—hanging out with my best friend from high school and his girlfriend. We were riding in his car to go get some dinner, when she brought up the subject of modern music and Kurt Cobain.
“Music today is so bad,” said a snotty 22-year old girl. “It’s a shame Kurt had to kill himself,” continued the girl who who was 11 when Cobain took a shotgun to his head “because at the very least he’d be making music to day, and it would be great.”
At this point in the conversation, my head fell into my hand shaking in disbelief. And I countered with one simple line published in Cobain’s journals. “I hope I die before I’m Pete Townshend.” Which shook her a bit, partially because I don’t think she knew who Pete Townshend was. Or if she did, she associated him with the pedophile Pete Townshend of today. Not the formerly brilliant songwriter from the Who. Either way, I explained to her what it meant. Townshend, the former genius who penned the line “I hope I die before I get old,” had in fact gotten old. And Cobain, self-aware as ever, knew he’d be there some day too.
The 22-year old girl, more stuck in the 90s than me, countered that Trent Reznor hadn’t gotten old. But seriously, have you ever look at Reznor’s career path? He’s been in decline since Pretty Hate Machine.
That’s the biggest problem in life. People do brilliant things and then completely fall off. Jack Kerouac? Sure he wrote On the Road and Dharma Bums. But at the end of his life he was living in his mother’s basement drinking homemade wine and playing an early version of Strat-o-Matic baseball. Robert Oppenheimer? Seriously what did he do after the atomic bomb? Sid Hartman? Sure he used to write good columns back in the day, But over the past two decades there has been a gradual decay into the caricature Walter Matthieu played in Grumpy Old Men. Jim Thome? Sure, he can hit a baseball a country mile. But how often does he make contact any more?
Let’s review the facts. Jim Thome is coming off an injury-plagued year. Jim Thome hit .207/.360/.357 in 2005. Jim Thome turned 35 on August 27th. According to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system, the six most similar players to Thome coming into 2005 were Willie McCovey, Mark McGwire, Harmon Killebrew. Boog Powell, Reggie Jackson and Frank Howard. How did those players perform from ages 34 to 37 (Thome’s last year on his current contract) on you ask?
Willie McCovey
Year Age G AB HR BA OBP SLG
1972 34 81 263 14 .213 .316 .403
1973 35 130 383 29 .266 .420 .546
1974 36 128 344 22 .253 .416 .506
1975 37 122 413 23 .252 .345 .460
Mark McGwire
Year Age G AB HR BA OBP SLG
1998 34 155 509 70 .299 .470 .752
1999 35 153 521 65 .278 .424 .697
2000 36 89 236 32 .305 .483 .746
2001 37 97 299 29 .187 .316 .492
Harmon Killebrew
Year Age G AB HR BA OBP SLG
1970 34 157 527 41 .271 .411 .546
1971 35 147 500 28 .254 .384 .464
1972 36 139 433 26 .231 .367 .450
1973 37 69 248 5 .242 .352 .347
Boog Powell
Year Age G AB HR BA OBP SLG
1976 34 95 293 9 .215 .305 .338
1977 35 50 41 0 .244 .415 .244
Reggie Jackson
Year Age G AB HR BA OBP SLG
1980 34 143 514 41 .300 .398 .597
1981 35 94 334 15 .237 .330 .428
1982 36 153 530 39 .275 .375 .532
1983 37 116 397 14 .194 .290 .340
Frank Howard
Year Age G AB HR BA OBP SLG
1971 34 153 549 26 .279 .367 .474
1972 35 109 320 10 .244 .340 .369
1973 36 85 227 12 .256 .327 .463
Year Age G AB HR BA OBP SLG
1972 34 81 263 14 .213 .316 .403
1973 35 130 383 29 .266 .420 .546
1974 36 128 344 22 .253 .416 .506
1975 37 122 413 23 .252 .345 .460
Mark McGwire
Year Age G AB HR BA OBP SLG
1998 34 155 509 70 .299 .470 .752
1999 35 153 521 65 .278 .424 .697
2000 36 89 236 32 .305 .483 .746
2001 37 97 299 29 .187 .316 .492
Harmon Killebrew
Year Age G AB HR BA OBP SLG
1970 34 157 527 41 .271 .411 .546
1971 35 147 500 28 .254 .384 .464
1972 36 139 433 26 .231 .367 .450
1973 37 69 248 5 .242 .352 .347
Boog Powell
Year Age G AB HR BA OBP SLG
1976 34 95 293 9 .215 .305 .338
1977 35 50 41 0 .244 .415 .244
Reggie Jackson
Year Age G AB HR BA OBP SLG
1980 34 143 514 41 .300 .398 .597
1981 35 94 334 15 .237 .330 .428
1982 36 153 530 39 .275 .375 .532
1983 37 116 397 14 .194 .290 .340
Frank Howard
Year Age G AB HR BA OBP SLG
1971 34 153 549 26 .279 .367 .474
1972 35 109 320 10 .244 .340 .369
1973 36 85 227 12 .256 .327 .463
So what can we discern from this? Can Thome bounce back from his injury woes this year and be productive again? Sure. Willie McCovey had an injury-plagued age 34 season and was productive again in 1973. He even managed to hang onto his career until 1980. Does that mean he will bounce back? We really can’t tell. Boog Powell never was the same after an injury plagued age-34 season. In fact he was toast the next year after 41 extra base-hitless at-bats. We won’t know how Thome will do in 2006 until after the season is over. Sure, we can come up with all kinds of great systems that will try to project it. But no system is perfect. We can listen to reports and doctors and even Jim Thome himself to hear if he’s a ghost. But remember the lesson learned in the Sixth Sense. Sometimes ghosts don’t even know they’re ghosts. Thome’s back could go out again in April, revealing him to be nothing more than Bruce Willis with a bullet hole in his back. That doesn’t mean there aren’t tendencies we can pick upon on, though. Here are two.
• The bigger you are, the more injury prone you get as you age: It’s true for both men and women. If a DD cupped women is prone to back problems from lugging around all that extra weight, why wouldn’t a barrel-chested power hitter be susceptible to the same thing? Take a look at the games played column and you don’t see any 160s in there, and some 150s. Even Willie McCovey, the one true success story on this list never made it past 130 games played in this cross-section of his career. A healthy Thome will likely produce, like the 36-year old Reggie Jackson did in 1982. But during this time in an aging power hitter’s career, healthy periods of time are in a minority.
•A player like Thome can wash out at any moment: Remember when Mark McGwire was the next great hope to pass Hank Aaron, and not Barry Bonds? For you old-timers, remember when Harmon Killebrew was the next great hope to pass Babe Ruth, and not Hank Aaron? Both of them faded into obscurity very quickly, mostly because of injuries. And therein lies the biggest problem with one-dimensional players like Killebrew, McGwire and Thome. Once they lose that one dimension to their game, what do they have left to offer?
Again, I point out that these are tendencies. I’m not smart enough to know exactly what Thome is going to do next year. Neither are you. Nor is Terry Ryan for that matter. No one is that clairvoyant. Thome may go out and play 140 games and slug .550, and be an asset to a team. He may well go out and play 50 games and slug .300. That’s the game of Russian Roulette you play when you target an aging slugger like Thome. There’s a bullet somewhere in the chamber. It’s going to come out eventually. You just hope it doesn’t come out in your face.
And therein lies the problem with Thome. If he had one year remaining on his contract and a team is willing to eat all of his salary, like oh say Bret Boone, then if you’re desperate enough you can rationalize taking a chance. But Thome doesn’t just have one year left on his contract, he has three. And Philadelphia isn’t likely to eat all $43.5 million he’s owed unless they’re blown away by a Baker/Liriano offer. So that means you’re putting that gun to your head three times and pulling the trigger. On top of which, you’re likely eating up $8 million in payroll each year to do it.
Yes, Jim Thome was truly great once. And there was a time when he terrorized Twins pitchers like Rob Radlosky and LaTroy Hawkins and owned the Dome like no other pitcher. But before he was a pedophile, Pete Townshend was great too.The question isn’t so much is Thome Pete Townshend. It’s pretty clear he is, minus the pedophile part. The question is does he have a “All the Best Cowboys Have Chinese Eyes” left in him? Because if he doesn’t, it’s going to be the death knell for this team’s chances for the next couple of years.
• The bigger you are, the more injury prone you get as you age: It’s true for both men and women. If a DD cupped women is prone to back problems from lugging around all that extra weight, why wouldn’t a barrel-chested power hitter be susceptible to the same thing? Take a look at the games played column and you don’t see any 160s in there, and some 150s. Even Willie McCovey, the one true success story on this list never made it past 130 games played in this cross-section of his career. A healthy Thome will likely produce, like the 36-year old Reggie Jackson did in 1982. But during this time in an aging power hitter’s career, healthy periods of time are in a minority.
•A player like Thome can wash out at any moment: Remember when Mark McGwire was the next great hope to pass Hank Aaron, and not Barry Bonds? For you old-timers, remember when Harmon Killebrew was the next great hope to pass Babe Ruth, and not Hank Aaron? Both of them faded into obscurity very quickly, mostly because of injuries. And therein lies the biggest problem with one-dimensional players like Killebrew, McGwire and Thome. Once they lose that one dimension to their game, what do they have left to offer?
Again, I point out that these are tendencies. I’m not smart enough to know exactly what Thome is going to do next year. Neither are you. Nor is Terry Ryan for that matter. No one is that clairvoyant. Thome may go out and play 140 games and slug .550, and be an asset to a team. He may well go out and play 50 games and slug .300. That’s the game of Russian Roulette you play when you target an aging slugger like Thome. There’s a bullet somewhere in the chamber. It’s going to come out eventually. You just hope it doesn’t come out in your face.
And therein lies the problem with Thome. If he had one year remaining on his contract and a team is willing to eat all of his salary, like oh say Bret Boone, then if you’re desperate enough you can rationalize taking a chance. But Thome doesn’t just have one year left on his contract, he has three. And Philadelphia isn’t likely to eat all $43.5 million he’s owed unless they’re blown away by a Baker/Liriano offer. So that means you’re putting that gun to your head three times and pulling the trigger. On top of which, you’re likely eating up $8 million in payroll each year to do it.
Yes, Jim Thome was truly great once. And there was a time when he terrorized Twins pitchers like Rob Radlosky and LaTroy Hawkins and owned the Dome like no other pitcher. But before he was a pedophile, Pete Townshend was great too.The question isn’t so much is Thome Pete Townshend. It’s pretty clear he is, minus the pedophile part. The question is does he have a “All the Best Cowboys Have Chinese Eyes” left in him? Because if he doesn’t, it’s going to be the death knell for this team’s chances for the next couple of years.
Wednesday, November 02, 2005
Congratulations Johan
In case you missed it, Johan Santana won his second straight Internet Baseball Awards Cy Young. Proving that Baseball Prospectus readers probably deserve a vote in the real Cy Young balloting more than the press does.
Tuesday, November 01, 2005
Insert Witty Comment here
Torii Hunter winning a Gold Glove this year is the biggest miscarriage of justice since _______________?
The Boy Wonder
How much will the Red Sox be hurt by Theo Epstein's departure?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2209574
It's an interesting question, but I don't think it will be a lot. The Red Sox didn't need Epstein to get them to October before, and will still have the financial resources to do it in light of his departure. On top of which, the hiring of Epstein stemmed from owner John Henry's love of Bill James' work.
If I were a betting man, I'd reason that now Henry makes a run at the recently unemployed Paul DePodestra and the Sox don't miss a beat next year.
What do guys think?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2209574
It's an interesting question, but I don't think it will be a lot. The Red Sox didn't need Epstein to get them to October before, and will still have the financial resources to do it in light of his departure. On top of which, the hiring of Epstein stemmed from owner John Henry's love of Bill James' work.
If I were a betting man, I'd reason that now Henry makes a run at the recently unemployed Paul DePodestra and the Sox don't miss a beat next year.
What do guys think?
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