Anyone with at spring training who has a spring training pic of Batista, I'd love to see it. E-mail it to jwescott35@hotmail.com if you have one.
Editors note: Ask and the Strib will deliver.
That double chin would make Matty LeCroy proud.
Saturday, February 25, 2006
It's Fair time
Get your funny hat out and guess Tony Batista's actual weight. 15 pounds overweight seems a bit c0nservative to me if he's really carrying a belly.
Anyone with at spring training who has a spring training pic of Batista, I'd love to see it. E-mail it to jwescott35@hotmail.com if you have one.
Editors note: Ask and the Strib will deliver.
That double chin would make Matty LeCroy proud.
Anyone with at spring training who has a spring training pic of Batista, I'd love to see it. E-mail it to jwescott35@hotmail.com if you have one.
Editors note: Ask and the Strib will deliver.
That double chin would make Matty LeCroy proud.
Friday, February 24, 2006
Handicapping the Relievers
I feel bad because I haven't been writing as much lately as I should. I don't know if this is going to be a trend or not. I do know that the excuse of not having anything to say is going out the window. There's Twins news-a-plenty to discuss these days.
We could discuss the news that Tony Batista isn't a mortal lock to make according to Gardenhire. Which is shocking, because, well most of us here wouldn't believe that Gardenhire could see how Batista's combination of low-average, low-OBP could be a problem. We really won't know what is going to happen there until Spring Training games start though.
The more interesting question at hand is that there are two open spots in the bullpen that no one is a lock to win. Everyone knows about the open competition for the lefty spot. But even after that, there's still a sixth spot in the bullpen that anyone could win.
Here's a quick look at the field in competition to make the Twins' bullpen this year:
Mortal Locks: Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain. About the only way any of these three guys aren’t on the Opening Day Roster is if they open up the season on the DL.
4 to 7: Matt Guerrier. After last year’s solid performance mopping up, it’ll take a fairly hefty Spring ERA for him to open the year in Rochester. That’s not impossible. But it is unlikely.
2 to 1: Darrell May. Given the way people complained about him, it seemed like J.C. Romero went around kicking everyone in Minnesota’s dog last year. Odds are by July, though, Romero will be missed. May is probably the safest pick among the lefties in camp. But he’s more Aaron Fultz than a guy you can trust for a full inning. May vs. Lefties in 2005: .645 OPS against. May vs. Righties in 2005: 1.022 OPS against.
2 to 1: Willie Eyre. It’s a shame he wasn’t born left-handed like his brother Scott. If he had been, Eyre probably would be a mortal lock for a bullpen spot. As it stands, he probably has a pretty good shot at opening the season in Minnesota after two and a half years in Rochester. His low-90s sinker makes him a similar pitcher to the one Rick Anderson turned Jesse Crain into last year. That’s not as big of a compliment as it sounds. Then again, it’s hard to root against a guy named William Mays Eyre. He opens the favorite to make the team.
2.5 to 1: Gabe White. Four years ago, White clearly would have been the best candidate to take over J.C. Romero’s role. But since 2002 his stuff has decomposed to the point where he’s nothing more than a left-handed Bob Wells. Still, his combination of control and “veteran presence®” is likely to make Gardenhire drool.
3 to 1: Dennys Reyes. As far as lefty relievers go, Reyes has the most potential of any one lining up for the job in camp, and is the only one in the group who even touches 90 with his fastball anymore, unless you count Glenn Perkins or Francisco Liriano as candidates. But it’s hard to stay in the majors when you average more than 5 walks per nine innings, as Reyes has done in his career. If Rick Anderson can teach him the difference between a ball, a strike, and a cheeseburger, then Reyes has a good chance of going Flounder Swindell. That’s a pretty big if.
3 to 1. Dave Gassner. If the Twins decide they miss Terry Mulholland, Gassner could get a shot as the team’s soft-tossing lefty long man. Then again, he’s just as good a pitcher as May, only without the “veteran presence®”
3 to 1: J.D. Durbin. Percent chance of being the Twins best reliever in 2006:
Joe Nathan 70%
J.D. Durbin 15%
Juan Rincon 10%
Jesse Crain 5%
Durbin’s biggest problem is that he’s been miscast as a starting pitcher. He uses a funky grip with his change-up that may preclude it from ever being a good pitch and the violence in his delivery is always going to make him an injury risk. But in a one-inning role coming out of the pen, Durbin could be spectacular very quickly, a la Bobby Jenks or K-Rod. In positive news, it’s good to see him trying to show a new maturity this year.
5 to 1: Boof Bonser. If he makes the move to the pen, he probably doesn’t translate as well as Durbin does because he doesn’t have Durbin’s stuff. Still, his plus curveball could make him a decent middle man. If he sticks around, it’s likely because something went wrong with Guerrier.
7 to 1: Peter Munro. Like Bonser, his best shot at making the club is if Guerrier implodes. Unlike Bonser, he doesn’t have the stuff to be a middle man in the event that doesn’t happen.
9 to 1: Pat Neshek. The Twiins favorite blogger is a long-shot to make the team out of spring training, mostly because he hasn’t sniffed Triple-A yet.
11 to 1: Ryan Glynn. Great control. Mediocre stuff. He likely starts the season in the Rochester rotation.
12 to 1: Ricky Barrett. The better question is how did Ricky Barrett get an invite to camp when Jason Miller didn’t.
13 to 1: Errol Simonitsch. Gardenhire has gone on record saying any lefty in camp could walk away with the LOOGY job. That means Simonistch has a chance. He doesn’t have great stuff though, and likely goes back to New Britain.
16 to 1: Glenn Perkins. If the Twins wanted to turn him into a lefty reliever, he immediately would jump to the top of this list. More than likely, the Twins will still try to develop him as a starter.
Try again next year. Adam Harben, Jose Mijares, Justin Jones. With the kind of pitching depth the Twins have right now, it’s hard to project someone jumping to the majors without hitting the high minors first.
Special Mention. Francisco Liriano. The Twins have already said that if he makes the team, it’ll be as a starter.
We could discuss the news that Tony Batista isn't a mortal lock to make according to Gardenhire. Which is shocking, because, well most of us here wouldn't believe that Gardenhire could see how Batista's combination of low-average, low-OBP could be a problem. We really won't know what is going to happen there until Spring Training games start though.
The more interesting question at hand is that there are two open spots in the bullpen that no one is a lock to win. Everyone knows about the open competition for the lefty spot. But even after that, there's still a sixth spot in the bullpen that anyone could win.
Here's a quick look at the field in competition to make the Twins' bullpen this year:
Mortal Locks: Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain. About the only way any of these three guys aren’t on the Opening Day Roster is if they open up the season on the DL.
4 to 7: Matt Guerrier. After last year’s solid performance mopping up, it’ll take a fairly hefty Spring ERA for him to open the year in Rochester. That’s not impossible. But it is unlikely.
2 to 1: Darrell May. Given the way people complained about him, it seemed like J.C. Romero went around kicking everyone in Minnesota’s dog last year. Odds are by July, though, Romero will be missed. May is probably the safest pick among the lefties in camp. But he’s more Aaron Fultz than a guy you can trust for a full inning. May vs. Lefties in 2005: .645 OPS against. May vs. Righties in 2005: 1.022 OPS against.
2 to 1: Willie Eyre. It’s a shame he wasn’t born left-handed like his brother Scott. If he had been, Eyre probably would be a mortal lock for a bullpen spot. As it stands, he probably has a pretty good shot at opening the season in Minnesota after two and a half years in Rochester. His low-90s sinker makes him a similar pitcher to the one Rick Anderson turned Jesse Crain into last year. That’s not as big of a compliment as it sounds. Then again, it’s hard to root against a guy named William Mays Eyre. He opens the favorite to make the team.
2.5 to 1: Gabe White. Four years ago, White clearly would have been the best candidate to take over J.C. Romero’s role. But since 2002 his stuff has decomposed to the point where he’s nothing more than a left-handed Bob Wells. Still, his combination of control and “veteran presence®” is likely to make Gardenhire drool.
3 to 1: Dennys Reyes. As far as lefty relievers go, Reyes has the most potential of any one lining up for the job in camp, and is the only one in the group who even touches 90 with his fastball anymore, unless you count Glenn Perkins or Francisco Liriano as candidates. But it’s hard to stay in the majors when you average more than 5 walks per nine innings, as Reyes has done in his career. If Rick Anderson can teach him the difference between a ball, a strike, and a cheeseburger, then Reyes has a good chance of going Flounder Swindell. That’s a pretty big if.
3 to 1. Dave Gassner. If the Twins decide they miss Terry Mulholland, Gassner could get a shot as the team’s soft-tossing lefty long man. Then again, he’s just as good a pitcher as May, only without the “veteran presence®”
3 to 1: J.D. Durbin. Percent chance of being the Twins best reliever in 2006:
Joe Nathan 70%
J.D. Durbin 15%
Juan Rincon 10%
Jesse Crain 5%
Durbin’s biggest problem is that he’s been miscast as a starting pitcher. He uses a funky grip with his change-up that may preclude it from ever being a good pitch and the violence in his delivery is always going to make him an injury risk. But in a one-inning role coming out of the pen, Durbin could be spectacular very quickly, a la Bobby Jenks or K-Rod. In positive news, it’s good to see him trying to show a new maturity this year.
5 to 1: Boof Bonser. If he makes the move to the pen, he probably doesn’t translate as well as Durbin does because he doesn’t have Durbin’s stuff. Still, his plus curveball could make him a decent middle man. If he sticks around, it’s likely because something went wrong with Guerrier.
7 to 1: Peter Munro. Like Bonser, his best shot at making the club is if Guerrier implodes. Unlike Bonser, he doesn’t have the stuff to be a middle man in the event that doesn’t happen.
9 to 1: Pat Neshek. The Twiins favorite blogger is a long-shot to make the team out of spring training, mostly because he hasn’t sniffed Triple-A yet.
11 to 1: Ryan Glynn. Great control. Mediocre stuff. He likely starts the season in the Rochester rotation.
12 to 1: Ricky Barrett. The better question is how did Ricky Barrett get an invite to camp when Jason Miller didn’t.
13 to 1: Errol Simonitsch. Gardenhire has gone on record saying any lefty in camp could walk away with the LOOGY job. That means Simonistch has a chance. He doesn’t have great stuff though, and likely goes back to New Britain.
16 to 1: Glenn Perkins. If the Twins wanted to turn him into a lefty reliever, he immediately would jump to the top of this list. More than likely, the Twins will still try to develop him as a starter.
Try again next year. Adam Harben, Jose Mijares, Justin Jones. With the kind of pitching depth the Twins have right now, it’s hard to project someone jumping to the majors without hitting the high minors first.
Special Mention. Francisco Liriano. The Twins have already said that if he makes the team, it’ll be as a starter.
Monday, February 20, 2006
Top 50 Review: 21-30
21. Romero, Alex CF/RF New Britain
+es: Great ability to put the ball on the bat. Gets good jumps in the outfield.
-es: Questionable power upside if he stays on a corner outfield spot.
High Ceiling: Curtis Granderson
More Likely: John Barnes
Comments: If PECOTA is your thing, then there isn’t a more interesting player in the Twins system than Romero. The list of names in his top-twenty include the last Triple Crown winner in Carl Yastremski, and a guy who came pretty close to winning one in Don Mattingly. Others on the list include include a laundry list of fourth outfielders like Rick Manning and Ed Kranepool. The first name on his PECOTA list, Curtis Granderson, is probably the most apt
Two years ago, Granderson appeared headed for the same tweener role that Romero was. The knock against him was that he was two slow to play in center field. But Granderson made up for it by getting good jumps in the outfield. Now, he’s on the verge of becoming one of the best centerfielders in the American League. One who plays an above-average defensive centerfield and is a threat to hit .300 with good pop every year.
In a best case scenario, that’s what Romero can become. The Twins have confined him to a corner outfielder, in part because Romero has slowed down the last couple of years and in part because Denard Span entered the system. Span’s defensive capabilities, as stated earlier, are vastly overrated. Romero is sort of the bizarro Span in the field. Yeah, he can’t outrun his mistakes. But at the same time, he doesn’t make many mistakes. He played an above-average centerfield in Quad Cities two years ago and has been phenomenal defensively on the corner the last two years. And if you look to the majors, an average runner who takes good routes to the ball in centerfield like say Jim Edmonds trumps a burner who takes poor routes like Podsednik or Alex Sanchez every day of the week.
In a world where Romero is a centerfielder, he’s probably one of the top-five prospects in the system. It’s not going to happen though. And as things stand Romero either needs to add a little more power or a little more on-base percentage (either by taking more walks or by increasing his batting average or in an ideal world, both) to be anything more than a fourth outfielder.
22. Smit, Alexander LHP Elizabethton
+es: Solid stuff for a lefty, toping out at 92 mph. Possibility of adding a few more mph as his body matures. Improved curveball
-es: Bombed in low-A ball because he didn’t have a second pitch. The question for 2006 is “Is Smit’s new curveball a good enough second pitch?”
High Ceiling: With velocity spike—Eric Milton
Without velocity spike: Mark Redman
More Likely: TBD
Coments: The funny thing about the Twins system is that some of these prospects in the lower quarters have more of a following than some of the ones near the top of the list. If you asked the average Twin fan on the street who Alexander Smit was and who Anthony Swarzak was, a greater number of them would know that Smit was that 16-year old Dutch kid the Twins signed a few years ago. Which really isn’t fair, because Swarzak is much more vital to the Twins’ future right now.
Smit’s biggest weakness, that he didn’t really have a second pitch to go along with his fastball, got exposed in Beloit at the start of the 2005 season. So he went back to Elizabethton, and to his credit he dropped his knuckle-curve in favor of a more traditional one that he took well to. The improvement of that pitch is a big part of the reason Smit led the Appy League in strikeouts and gives him a better shot when he takes another stab at Beloit next year. The Twins think more velocity is going to be coming from Smit in the future, and that will decide if he’s a potential #2/#3 starter or back-half of the rotation filler.
23. Casilla, Alexi 2B/SS Cedar Rapids (J.C. Romero trade)
+es: Speed, Speed, Speed and more speed. Gets to a lot of balls in the field and reeks a lot of havoc on the basepaths.
-es: No power to speak of.
High Ceiling: Luis Castillo
More likely: Nick Punto
Comments: If you want a scary theme for the 2006 season, the fact that it’s a fine line between Nick Punto and new starting Luis Castillo. Both of them started out hitting .300 in the low minors, stealing bases by the ton. As they moved up the ladder though, Punto’s average took a severe hit while Castillo’’s remained around .300. If Castillo’s batting average collapses, he’s a god-awful player in the mold of Punto. With that said, watch Casilla’s batting average. If it’s still over .300 when he hits Double-A, he just might be a future All-Star.
Comments:
24. Fox. Matt RHP DNP/IR
+es: Good stuff, including a low-90s fastball that topped out at 96 mph in college and command of four pitches.
-es: Unfortunately, the last time he was healthy was his junior years at Central Florida.
High Ceiling: TBD
More likely: TBD
Comments: Kind of like Justin Jones, a healthy Matt Fox has the ability to shoot quickly up to the top of this list. Pitchers in baseball who throw hard with good control are rare enough that they generally move quickly through the minors. At least they do when they’re healthy enough to pitch. Another injury plagued season though, and it’s probably the end of his career. If you don’t see his name in box scores come May, well then it was probably never meant to be.
25. Edlich, Kyle, LHP GCL
+es: Sharp curveball with good potential. Bulldog Mentality on the mound. Solid command
-es: Doesn’t have an overpowering fastball, topping out at 90 mph.
High Ceiling: Mark Redman
More Realistically: TBD
Comments: In a lot of ways, Edlich and Smit are very similar. Both were big foreign signings, with the Twins’ paying third round money to sign Edlich out of Australia last year. Both took less money to sign with the Twins than other organizations were offering, in part to Howie Norsetter’s great work at selling the organization. The difference between the two is while Smit has more of an upside, he’s also a greater risk to flame out than Edlich—who really does have a good idea how to pitch for a teenager and who has the start of some really nice secondary pitches.
26. Simonitsch, Errol, LHP New Britain
+es: Bulldog mentality on the mound. Solid secondary pitches.
-es: Doesn’t have an overpowering fastball, topping out at 90 mph.
High Ceiling: Terry Mulholland or Mark Redman
More Realistically: Len DiNardo, John Halama
Comments: I was thinking Mark Redman would be the comp du jour on this list, given the number of starting lefty pitchers that only touch 90 on this list (Edlich, Simonistch, Mullins, Gassner, even Smit to an extent). In the end, only Edlich and Smit were tagged as potential Redmans. Simonitisch might make it three. The real difference between Terry Mulholland and Mark Redman at the big league level is one is a fly-ball pitcher and the other is a ground-ball one. Simonitsch played as an extreme fly-ball pitcher in New Britain and as a groundball pitcher in Ft. Myers. It doesn’t matter much, because he’s a potential back-half of the rotation starter in either case. He also did Strikeouts for the Troops along with Barry Zito last year, despite making a fraction of a percent of Zito’s salary. You can’t help but root for him.
27. Gassner, Dave LHP Rochester
+es: Very good command….
-es: …of very average pitches
High Ceiling: Brian Anderson, the pitcher
More reasonably: Brian Anderson, the pitcher
Comments: In the life’s not fair category, Gassner is in the wrong organization. Is he a great pitching prospect? No. Is he a potential ace? No. He is however a pretty good #5 starter right now. And in a different organization, he’d likely get that shot. Mark Hendrickson is going to make almost $2 million to blow ball games in 2006. And Gassner is a better pitcher than him. In all likelihood, Gassner either wins Terry Mulholland’s old spot in the bullpen, or he’ll get ousted from the 40-man roster to make space for one of the lefties in camp. In which case, Gassner likely ends up a Devil Ray. And that might not be a bad thing for him.
28. Woodard, Johnny 1B Beloit
+es: One of the prettiest swings in the organization. Good power potential. Good potential at the plate overall.
-es: Could use better strike-zone judgement.
High Ceiling: David Ortiz
More realistically: TBD
Comments: In 1997, a little known first baseman entered the season as an after thought in Ft. Myers. 31 homeruns later coupled with a .300+ batting average later, he found himself in Minnesota. If there’s any Twins hitting prospect with the ability to do that this year, it’s Woodard. In terms of percentages, the odds of that happening are real low. But it could happen. He doesn’t have as much raw power as Henry Sanchez, but then again Sanchez probably doesn’t have the bat speed of a healthy Woodard either. Woodard is far from perfect. He could take more walks. He could have a better health record. The fact that he played more basketball than baseball in high school really shows in the field. He’s also the hitting version of Justin Jones or Matt Fox. He has the ability to blow up in a good way in 2006. Or blow up in a bad one.
29. Sanchez, Henry 1B, GCL
+es: Power, power, power and more power.
-es: Best position is probably going to be DH, so he has to hit. He needs to tighten up his strike zone judgment if that’s going to happen.
High Ceiling: I’d guess Cecil Fielder. Big Power. Not so big average.
More Realistically: Without better strike zone discipline, nowhere near Cecil Fielder.
Comments: It’s a bad year for first base prospects all around, not just in the Twins’ organization. Prince Fielder is about as good as a first base prospect gets. Then there’s Conor Jackson, who really doesn’t have a lot of pop at this point. But then again, both of them are penciled in as starters at this point. And after that? It gets scary. Baseball Prospectus has Garrett Jones as its eleventh best first base prospect. Which really does reveal the weakness in the new PECOTA. I hate dispensing fantasy advice here, mostly because I think I play in a league with 90% of the people reading this, but given the lack of good first base prospects grabbing that David Ortiz or Mark Teixeria early may not be a bad idea. Odds are if your sleeper first baseman falls apart, there isn’t going to be a way to replace him.
I suppose at the end of the day the Twins are lucky to have not only one, but two solid breakout candidates But I’m more worried about Sanchez than Woodard. Sanchez has the longer swing, which means even if everything goes right for him he’s still likely to be a .250/.260 hitter. Yet thumbing through the BA Prospect handbook, the words coming from the Twins organization were we want him to be aggressive, but cut down your strikeouts. Which is no way to build a power hitter. In Ken Burns’ Baseball, Mickey Mantle made a comment that every time he came up he was trying to knock the ball out of the park. It’s not an attitude you want to see from a Luis Castillo type hitter. But from a power hitter like say Justin Morneau, Michael Restovich or even Henry Sanchez, you don’t want them concerned about moving the runner over. You want them concerned with getting a pitch they can knock the snot out of. That means laying off tough pitches on the outside of the plate and waiting for the cookie over the middle, which doesn’t happen if you’re too aggressive or worried about the strike out. Telling them to “swing the bat like a man” defeats that purpose. If you're concerned about playing small ball with your clean-up hitter, odds are you aren’t going to score a lot of runs.
We’ll see what happens with Sanchez. I just wanted to get my concerns down early.
30. Mullins, Ryan LHP Elizabethton
+es: Throws three pitches for strikes. Good control
-es: Stuff isn’t overpowering, with a fastball topping out at 90 mph. Noticing a theme for this section?
High Ceiling: Terry Mullholland
More realistically: TBD
Comments: If you’ve made it this far, I’m sure by now you’re tired of reading about soft-tossing lefties who someday might make good number four starters someday. And I honestly can’t think of another way to make them interesting. So, not knowing if I’m going to do a review on prospects 31-40 yet, this seems like a good time to say something that doesn’t get said often about the Twins’ pitching prospects. What makes them great is their diversity. That doesn’t mean that they’re of different in race. It means that you’ll find all sorts of different pitches in the organization. Power pitchers. Control pitchers. Fly ball pitchers. Ground ball pitchers. 7 years ago, you didn’t see that. Everyone in the organization was a control pitcher. 4 years ago, everyone was seemingly a power pitcher. Who knows how the Twins’ stockpile of pitching prospects is going to play out? But with this many options, odds are it’s going to be good.
+es: Great ability to put the ball on the bat. Gets good jumps in the outfield.
-es: Questionable power upside if he stays on a corner outfield spot.
High Ceiling: Curtis Granderson
More Likely: John Barnes
Comments: If PECOTA is your thing, then there isn’t a more interesting player in the Twins system than Romero. The list of names in his top-twenty include the last Triple Crown winner in Carl Yastremski, and a guy who came pretty close to winning one in Don Mattingly. Others on the list include include a laundry list of fourth outfielders like Rick Manning and Ed Kranepool. The first name on his PECOTA list, Curtis Granderson, is probably the most apt
Two years ago, Granderson appeared headed for the same tweener role that Romero was. The knock against him was that he was two slow to play in center field. But Granderson made up for it by getting good jumps in the outfield. Now, he’s on the verge of becoming one of the best centerfielders in the American League. One who plays an above-average defensive centerfield and is a threat to hit .300 with good pop every year.
In a best case scenario, that’s what Romero can become. The Twins have confined him to a corner outfielder, in part because Romero has slowed down the last couple of years and in part because Denard Span entered the system. Span’s defensive capabilities, as stated earlier, are vastly overrated. Romero is sort of the bizarro Span in the field. Yeah, he can’t outrun his mistakes. But at the same time, he doesn’t make many mistakes. He played an above-average centerfield in Quad Cities two years ago and has been phenomenal defensively on the corner the last two years. And if you look to the majors, an average runner who takes good routes to the ball in centerfield like say Jim Edmonds trumps a burner who takes poor routes like Podsednik or Alex Sanchez every day of the week.
In a world where Romero is a centerfielder, he’s probably one of the top-five prospects in the system. It’s not going to happen though. And as things stand Romero either needs to add a little more power or a little more on-base percentage (either by taking more walks or by increasing his batting average or in an ideal world, both) to be anything more than a fourth outfielder.
22. Smit, Alexander LHP Elizabethton
+es: Solid stuff for a lefty, toping out at 92 mph. Possibility of adding a few more mph as his body matures. Improved curveball
-es: Bombed in low-A ball because he didn’t have a second pitch. The question for 2006 is “Is Smit’s new curveball a good enough second pitch?”
High Ceiling: With velocity spike—Eric Milton
Without velocity spike: Mark Redman
More Likely: TBD
Coments: The funny thing about the Twins system is that some of these prospects in the lower quarters have more of a following than some of the ones near the top of the list. If you asked the average Twin fan on the street who Alexander Smit was and who Anthony Swarzak was, a greater number of them would know that Smit was that 16-year old Dutch kid the Twins signed a few years ago. Which really isn’t fair, because Swarzak is much more vital to the Twins’ future right now.
Smit’s biggest weakness, that he didn’t really have a second pitch to go along with his fastball, got exposed in Beloit at the start of the 2005 season. So he went back to Elizabethton, and to his credit he dropped his knuckle-curve in favor of a more traditional one that he took well to. The improvement of that pitch is a big part of the reason Smit led the Appy League in strikeouts and gives him a better shot when he takes another stab at Beloit next year. The Twins think more velocity is going to be coming from Smit in the future, and that will decide if he’s a potential #2/#3 starter or back-half of the rotation filler.
23. Casilla, Alexi 2B/SS Cedar Rapids (J.C. Romero trade)
+es: Speed, Speed, Speed and more speed. Gets to a lot of balls in the field and reeks a lot of havoc on the basepaths.
-es: No power to speak of.
High Ceiling: Luis Castillo
More likely: Nick Punto
Comments: If you want a scary theme for the 2006 season, the fact that it’s a fine line between Nick Punto and new starting Luis Castillo. Both of them started out hitting .300 in the low minors, stealing bases by the ton. As they moved up the ladder though, Punto’s average took a severe hit while Castillo’’s remained around .300. If Castillo’s batting average collapses, he’s a god-awful player in the mold of Punto. With that said, watch Casilla’s batting average. If it’s still over .300 when he hits Double-A, he just might be a future All-Star.
Comments:
24. Fox. Matt RHP DNP/IR
+es: Good stuff, including a low-90s fastball that topped out at 96 mph in college and command of four pitches.
-es: Unfortunately, the last time he was healthy was his junior years at Central Florida.
High Ceiling: TBD
More likely: TBD
Comments: Kind of like Justin Jones, a healthy Matt Fox has the ability to shoot quickly up to the top of this list. Pitchers in baseball who throw hard with good control are rare enough that they generally move quickly through the minors. At least they do when they’re healthy enough to pitch. Another injury plagued season though, and it’s probably the end of his career. If you don’t see his name in box scores come May, well then it was probably never meant to be.
25. Edlich, Kyle, LHP GCL
+es: Sharp curveball with good potential. Bulldog Mentality on the mound. Solid command
-es: Doesn’t have an overpowering fastball, topping out at 90 mph.
High Ceiling: Mark Redman
More Realistically: TBD
Comments: In a lot of ways, Edlich and Smit are very similar. Both were big foreign signings, with the Twins’ paying third round money to sign Edlich out of Australia last year. Both took less money to sign with the Twins than other organizations were offering, in part to Howie Norsetter’s great work at selling the organization. The difference between the two is while Smit has more of an upside, he’s also a greater risk to flame out than Edlich—who really does have a good idea how to pitch for a teenager and who has the start of some really nice secondary pitches.
26. Simonitsch, Errol, LHP New Britain
+es: Bulldog mentality on the mound. Solid secondary pitches.
-es: Doesn’t have an overpowering fastball, topping out at 90 mph.
High Ceiling: Terry Mulholland or Mark Redman
More Realistically: Len DiNardo, John Halama
Comments: I was thinking Mark Redman would be the comp du jour on this list, given the number of starting lefty pitchers that only touch 90 on this list (Edlich, Simonistch, Mullins, Gassner, even Smit to an extent). In the end, only Edlich and Smit were tagged as potential Redmans. Simonitisch might make it three. The real difference between Terry Mulholland and Mark Redman at the big league level is one is a fly-ball pitcher and the other is a ground-ball one. Simonitsch played as an extreme fly-ball pitcher in New Britain and as a groundball pitcher in Ft. Myers. It doesn’t matter much, because he’s a potential back-half of the rotation starter in either case. He also did Strikeouts for the Troops along with Barry Zito last year, despite making a fraction of a percent of Zito’s salary. You can’t help but root for him.
27. Gassner, Dave LHP Rochester
+es: Very good command….
-es: …of very average pitches
High Ceiling: Brian Anderson, the pitcher
More reasonably: Brian Anderson, the pitcher
Comments: In the life’s not fair category, Gassner is in the wrong organization. Is he a great pitching prospect? No. Is he a potential ace? No. He is however a pretty good #5 starter right now. And in a different organization, he’d likely get that shot. Mark Hendrickson is going to make almost $2 million to blow ball games in 2006. And Gassner is a better pitcher than him. In all likelihood, Gassner either wins Terry Mulholland’s old spot in the bullpen, or he’ll get ousted from the 40-man roster to make space for one of the lefties in camp. In which case, Gassner likely ends up a Devil Ray. And that might not be a bad thing for him.
28. Woodard, Johnny 1B Beloit
+es: One of the prettiest swings in the organization. Good power potential. Good potential at the plate overall.
-es: Could use better strike-zone judgement.
High Ceiling: David Ortiz
More realistically: TBD
Comments: In 1997, a little known first baseman entered the season as an after thought in Ft. Myers. 31 homeruns later coupled with a .300+ batting average later, he found himself in Minnesota. If there’s any Twins hitting prospect with the ability to do that this year, it’s Woodard. In terms of percentages, the odds of that happening are real low. But it could happen. He doesn’t have as much raw power as Henry Sanchez, but then again Sanchez probably doesn’t have the bat speed of a healthy Woodard either. Woodard is far from perfect. He could take more walks. He could have a better health record. The fact that he played more basketball than baseball in high school really shows in the field. He’s also the hitting version of Justin Jones or Matt Fox. He has the ability to blow up in a good way in 2006. Or blow up in a bad one.
29. Sanchez, Henry 1B, GCL
+es: Power, power, power and more power.
-es: Best position is probably going to be DH, so he has to hit. He needs to tighten up his strike zone judgment if that’s going to happen.
High Ceiling: I’d guess Cecil Fielder. Big Power. Not so big average.
More Realistically: Without better strike zone discipline, nowhere near Cecil Fielder.
Comments: It’s a bad year for first base prospects all around, not just in the Twins’ organization. Prince Fielder is about as good as a first base prospect gets. Then there’s Conor Jackson, who really doesn’t have a lot of pop at this point. But then again, both of them are penciled in as starters at this point. And after that? It gets scary. Baseball Prospectus has Garrett Jones as its eleventh best first base prospect. Which really does reveal the weakness in the new PECOTA. I hate dispensing fantasy advice here, mostly because I think I play in a league with 90% of the people reading this, but given the lack of good first base prospects grabbing that David Ortiz or Mark Teixeria early may not be a bad idea. Odds are if your sleeper first baseman falls apart, there isn’t going to be a way to replace him.
I suppose at the end of the day the Twins are lucky to have not only one, but two solid breakout candidates But I’m more worried about Sanchez than Woodard. Sanchez has the longer swing, which means even if everything goes right for him he’s still likely to be a .250/.260 hitter. Yet thumbing through the BA Prospect handbook, the words coming from the Twins organization were we want him to be aggressive, but cut down your strikeouts. Which is no way to build a power hitter. In Ken Burns’ Baseball, Mickey Mantle made a comment that every time he came up he was trying to knock the ball out of the park. It’s not an attitude you want to see from a Luis Castillo type hitter. But from a power hitter like say Justin Morneau, Michael Restovich or even Henry Sanchez, you don’t want them concerned about moving the runner over. You want them concerned with getting a pitch they can knock the snot out of. That means laying off tough pitches on the outside of the plate and waiting for the cookie over the middle, which doesn’t happen if you’re too aggressive or worried about the strike out. Telling them to “swing the bat like a man” defeats that purpose. If you're concerned about playing small ball with your clean-up hitter, odds are you aren’t going to score a lot of runs.
We’ll see what happens with Sanchez. I just wanted to get my concerns down early.
30. Mullins, Ryan LHP Elizabethton
+es: Throws three pitches for strikes. Good control
-es: Stuff isn’t overpowering, with a fastball topping out at 90 mph. Noticing a theme for this section?
High Ceiling: Terry Mullholland
More realistically: TBD
Comments: If you’ve made it this far, I’m sure by now you’re tired of reading about soft-tossing lefties who someday might make good number four starters someday. And I honestly can’t think of another way to make them interesting. So, not knowing if I’m going to do a review on prospects 31-40 yet, this seems like a good time to say something that doesn’t get said often about the Twins’ pitching prospects. What makes them great is their diversity. That doesn’t mean that they’re of different in race. It means that you’ll find all sorts of different pitches in the organization. Power pitchers. Control pitchers. Fly ball pitchers. Ground ball pitchers. 7 years ago, you didn’t see that. Everyone in the organization was a control pitcher. 4 years ago, everyone was seemingly a power pitcher. Who knows how the Twins’ stockpile of pitching prospects is going to play out? But with this many options, odds are it’s going to be good.
Friday, February 17, 2006
Just a simple reminder
Today it's -5 degrees outside. A thousand miles away, it's significantly warmer. And pitchers and catchers have reported.
Good times are ahead.
Good times are ahead.
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
Hypothetical question
This is just something that's been on my mind a lot lately. What if Harmon Killebrew was a 22-year old prospect in the Twins organization today? What would happen?
Killebrew is possibly the best Twin of all-time. Yet he runs in the race of everything Tom Kelly and Ron Gardenhire preach. He couldn't field. Didn't hit for average. Drew a lot of walks. And conversely struck out a ton. He wasn't particularly athletic. But he could hit the ball a country mile.
I'm curious to see what you guys think would have happened if Killebrew was a prospect now.
Killebrew is possibly the best Twin of all-time. Yet he runs in the race of everything Tom Kelly and Ron Gardenhire preach. He couldn't field. Didn't hit for average. Drew a lot of walks. And conversely struck out a ton. He wasn't particularly athletic. But he could hit the ball a country mile.
I'm curious to see what you guys think would have happened if Killebrew was a prospect now.
Friday, February 10, 2006
How the Tigers will win the Central
When the AL Central gets talked about in the papers, it seems like it always is brought up as a three-team race between the White Sox, Indians and Twins. This, however, ignores the fact that there is a fourth team that might be ready to take a step towards winning the title. Detroit doesn't get talked up a lot, and for good reason. They were 71-91 last year and their veteran free agent signings of the past two years, Pudge Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez, dissapointed.
In my team review, here's a look ahead at what will have to break right for the Tigers .
Detroit Tigers
2005 Record: 71-91
Projected 2006 Finish: 4th
April 3rd: Starting his first full year in the big leagues, Curtis Granderson starts things out with a bang. Literally. He sends Zack Greinke's third pitch of the season 400 feet into the right field bleachers at Kauffman Stadium. Later, he makes a sliding catch to take away extra bases from David DeJesus, paying homage to fallen hero Fred "Rerun" Berry pulling of some pop locking after the catch. The Tigers win on opening day, 5-1.
April 8th: With a runner on first, Todd Jones clings to a one-run lead. Mark Teixeira shakes the game loose from his grasp with the longest home-run in Texas Rangers history.
April 10th: In the home opener, Magglio Ordonez reeks his revenge. Four homeruns and a Jim Thome back injury later, several fans at the ESPN White Sox board need to be talked off the ledge.
April 13th: With a runner on first, Todd Jones clings to a one-run lead. Paul Konerko shakes the game loose from his grasp with the longest home-run in White Sox history.
April 18th: In honor of "Moneyball," Pudge Rodriguez draws three walks against the Oakland A's. His total for the season now hits 6 walks, more than half of his 2005 total.
April 25th: With a runner on first, Todd Jones clings to a one-run lead. You know how the rest goes, sub in Vlad Guerrero.
May 1st: Fernando Rodney strikes out Mike Sweeney to earn his first save of the season.
May 14th: Rookie phenom Justin Verlander strikes out 18 Indians en route to a one-hitter. The win, his 7th of the year, ties him with teammate Jeremy Bonderman for the AL lead.
May 22nd: Chris Shelton, Carlos Pena and Craig Monroe hit back-t0-back homeruns off Mark Redman. Then dance the robot as a trio at homeplate. The homers are their 12th, 13th, and 8th on the season, respectively.
May 27th: Grady Sizemore slides hard into second to break up a double play. Carlos Guillen hears something rip. Fortunately, it's just Sizemore's spikes that have torn a hole the bag.
June 1st: Jeremey Bonderman doesn't just no-hit the Yankees. He taunts them afterwards by putting walkers in Randy Johnson, Bernie Williams and Gary Sheffield's lockers.
June 21st: With Prince Fielder on first, Carlos Pena coyly informs him that he's going to be the first Tiger to pop 40 homeruns sinces Prince's dad did it. Pena proceeds to drill two more balls into the bleachers that day.
July 11th: Pudge Rodriguez, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Pena and Jeremy Bonderman are named All-Stars. Justin Verlander sulks on the sidelines and plots his revenge.
July 13th: Justin Verlander's revenge is a 1-hit shutout in which he strikes out a dozen Royals.
July 18th: Joel Zumaya finally gets his call-up, replacing Nate Robertson in the rotation. He responds with a 4-2 victory over the White Sox, putting the Tigers in first place.
August 24nd: After falling out of first, the Tigers proceed to sweep a four-game series from the White Sox to take back first. A surprise break-out season from former top first base prospect Carlos Pena helped the cause, but not as much as getting healthy seasons from Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen. Pudge Rodrgiuez also had a bounce-back year, and his stability behind the plate keyed breakout years from pitchers Jeremy Bonderman and Justiv Verlander. Top prospect Joel Zumaya came up mid-season, and gave the team three flame throwers still in theirearly twenties.
Sound funny? It does to me too a little. But unlike what it would take for the Royals to win the division, it's at least within the realm of possibility.
In my team review, here's a look ahead at what will have to break right for the Tigers .
Detroit Tigers
2005 Record: 71-91
Projected 2006 Finish: 4th
April 3rd: Starting his first full year in the big leagues, Curtis Granderson starts things out with a bang. Literally. He sends Zack Greinke's third pitch of the season 400 feet into the right field bleachers at Kauffman Stadium. Later, he makes a sliding catch to take away extra bases from David DeJesus, paying homage to fallen hero Fred "Rerun" Berry pulling of some pop locking after the catch. The Tigers win on opening day, 5-1.
April 8th: With a runner on first, Todd Jones clings to a one-run lead. Mark Teixeira shakes the game loose from his grasp with the longest home-run in Texas Rangers history.
April 10th: In the home opener, Magglio Ordonez reeks his revenge. Four homeruns and a Jim Thome back injury later, several fans at the ESPN White Sox board need to be talked off the ledge.
April 13th: With a runner on first, Todd Jones clings to a one-run lead. Paul Konerko shakes the game loose from his grasp with the longest home-run in White Sox history.
April 18th: In honor of "Moneyball," Pudge Rodriguez draws three walks against the Oakland A's. His total for the season now hits 6 walks, more than half of his 2005 total.
April 25th: With a runner on first, Todd Jones clings to a one-run lead. You know how the rest goes, sub in Vlad Guerrero.
May 1st: Fernando Rodney strikes out Mike Sweeney to earn his first save of the season.
May 14th: Rookie phenom Justin Verlander strikes out 18 Indians en route to a one-hitter. The win, his 7th of the year, ties him with teammate Jeremy Bonderman for the AL lead.
May 22nd: Chris Shelton, Carlos Pena and Craig Monroe hit back-t0-back homeruns off Mark Redman. Then dance the robot as a trio at homeplate. The homers are their 12th, 13th, and 8th on the season, respectively.
May 27th: Grady Sizemore slides hard into second to break up a double play. Carlos Guillen hears something rip. Fortunately, it's just Sizemore's spikes that have torn a hole the bag.
June 1st: Jeremey Bonderman doesn't just no-hit the Yankees. He taunts them afterwards by putting walkers in Randy Johnson, Bernie Williams and Gary Sheffield's lockers.
June 21st: With Prince Fielder on first, Carlos Pena coyly informs him that he's going to be the first Tiger to pop 40 homeruns sinces Prince's dad did it. Pena proceeds to drill two more balls into the bleachers that day.
July 11th: Pudge Rodriguez, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Pena and Jeremy Bonderman are named All-Stars. Justin Verlander sulks on the sidelines and plots his revenge.
July 13th: Justin Verlander's revenge is a 1-hit shutout in which he strikes out a dozen Royals.
July 18th: Joel Zumaya finally gets his call-up, replacing Nate Robertson in the rotation. He responds with a 4-2 victory over the White Sox, putting the Tigers in first place.
August 24nd: After falling out of first, the Tigers proceed to sweep a four-game series from the White Sox to take back first. A surprise break-out season from former top first base prospect Carlos Pena helped the cause, but not as much as getting healthy seasons from Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen. Pudge Rodrgiuez also had a bounce-back year, and his stability behind the plate keyed breakout years from pitchers Jeremy Bonderman and Justiv Verlander. Top prospect Joel Zumaya came up mid-season, and gave the team three flame throwers still in theirearly twenties.
Sound funny? It does to me too a little. But unlike what it would take for the Royals to win the division, it's at least within the realm of possibility.
Thursday, February 09, 2006
Top 50 Review: 11-20
11. Garza, Matt RHP Beloit, age 22
+es: Big fastball that goes as high as 96 miles per hour and usually sits in the low 90s. Sharp slider. A smooth, easy delivery that should keep him healthy.
-es: His change-up is pedestrian at best. And that might confine him to relief. Inconsistent release points may hurt him more as he moves up.
High Ceiling: A Matt Clement-type.
More realistically: TBD
Comments: You can say the same thing about Garza that you can about most of the Twins power pitching prospects aside from Swarzak. If he develops a change-up and it doesn’t cost him his sharp breaking stuff to do it, a la Adam Johnson, he has a shot at being a pretty good starter. If he doesn’’t, his future lies in relief.
12. Span, Denard CF New Britain, age 22
+es: Is to fast what Matt LeCroy is to slow. Has a good idea on how to do the things a lead-off hitter needs to do—work the count, get on base, and how to utilize his speed.
-es: About as much power right now as Ghana has in the U.N. Poor throwing arm. Has very poor baseball instincts in the field and on the bases. Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus described his reactions in the outfield as if he shouted Marco and expected the ball to say Polo to let him know where it was.
High Ceiling: Kenny Lofton
More realistically: Alex Sanchez
Comments: There was a question asked about Span in last week’s BA chat about Span during their Twins top-ten list that didn’t really get answered all that well. Since it was lonestar’s question, I thought I’d take a crack.
Q: For a guy as fast as Span, he sure does have a poor SBCS ratio. Are the Twins working with him on this? People compare him to a Lofton type, but can he get the XBH's Lofton got?
A: Mike Berardino: Span hasn't shown the extra-base pop yet but the Twins believe that will come. He's been a project but his tools are undeniable. He is the best athlete, fastest player and best defensive OF in the system. It's quite possible he will take over for Torii Hunter in 2007.
Bernandino sort of misses the point, that this is an impossible question to answer right now. Even Lofton himself didn’t start hitting for power until he was 27. To take it back to a Twins’ leadoff hitter from the past, Chuck Knoblauch didn’t hit for any power until he was 26. Scott Podsednik, Brian Roberts, same thing. If Span is going to have a power breakout, it’s going to be the result of his body maturing at some point in his mid-20s. It will probably be given away by a spike in doubles the year before a homerun spike. But then again, sometimes that spike never comes. It never did for Otis Nixon, or Juan Pierre, or Luis Castillo, or Alex Sanchez. All you can really do at this point is wait and see.
13. Perkins, Glen LHP New Britain, age 23
+es: An improved fastball that now touches 94 mph instead of 92 mph. Good change-up.
-es: Not a great athlete. His flat feet are some cause for concern. Could use a better curveball.
High Ceiling: Ted Lilly.
More realistically: Actually Ted Lilly is about perfect. The problem is out of need or lack of faith they often become Eddie Guardados or Neal Cottses instead.
Comments: Had I known about his velocity spike, I probably would have stuck Perkins a little higher on this list. Not because it drastically changes who he is as a prospect to me, but it will significantly increase the number of chances he’ll get to remain in the rotation. IMO, given the number of starters in the system odds are he winds up solving the inevitable “lefty in the pen” problems the Twins are going to have this year.
14. Jones, Justin LHP Ft Myers, age 21
+es: Good fastball that tops out at 95 mph, when healthy. Good change-up, when healthy. Devastating curve, when healthy.
-es: Didn’t you notice all those, “when healthy”s?
High Ceiling: Mark Mulder-esq
More Realistically: TBD.
Comments: If Jones stays healthy in 2006, he could see himself breakout in a Francisco Liriano like way. If he doesn’t stay healthy, well, there’s always next year. But he becomes a longer shot next year. Jones is really one of those prospects that there is no middle ground with. He'll either be very good, or go the way of Johnny Ard.
15. Winfree, David 3B Beloit, age 20
+es:Power. Power. Power and did I mention power? Also he might have the tools to stay at third base. Also noted for being a hard worker.
-es: Very error-prone at third, mostly because he’s still adjusting to playing the position. Very slow baserunner. About as selective as A-Wan at a meat-market bar after a dozen beers.
High Ceiling: Dean Palmer. A non-Coors aided Vinny Castilla.
More realistically: TBD
Comments: They said in the Midwest League that the ball made a different, louder sound when it came off Winfree’s bat. That’s all well and good, but if the high error totals move him off third then he’s in trouble, unless it drives him to catcher. Winfree isn’t fast enough to handle a corner outfield position, and for his lack of strike-zone judgment to work at first he’s going to have to hit a lot more homeruns. If that move occurs, then in the words of Belle and Sebastian it could’ve been a brilliant career.
16. Pridie, Jason CF Montgomery (Rule V), age 22
+es: A five tool talent, with a quick swing, some pop, good speed and a very strong arm that use to flirt with the mid-90s as a high school pitcher.
-es: Too much of a free-swinger for his own good. Has to stick on the 25 man roster next year or be offered back to the Devil Rays.
High Ceiling: The white Torii Hunter
More realistically: TBD, although Laynce Nix makes sense as far as the flame-out categories goes.
Comments: I probably would have rated him an inch above Span if it weren’t for the whole Rule-V thing. If it weren’t for the redundancy that is Puntro, the two-headed utility infield monster, there might be a roster spot for him. As it stands now, his only chance of making the club is if Kubel isn’t ready and Ruben Sierra actual age turns out to be closer to 50. And even then Gardenhire will be praising his veteran presence. Given the lack of high-ceiling outfield prospects in the system, that really is a shame.
17. Rainville, Jay RHP Ft Myers, age 20
+es: Really good control. Has thrown really hard in the past. Pretty good hammer curve. Shows really good control
-es: Velocity was down from the low 90s to the high-80s last year. Might not have the prerequisite off-speed stuff to remain a starter.
High Ceiling: Baseball America has compared him to a young Curt Schilling on several occasions.
More realistically: I don’t know. Shock D. calls him the minor league Carlos Silva, but Rainville is an extreme flyball pitcher. The minor league Scott Elarton sounds more accurate. But it may come across as a little mean.
Comments: Probably more time was wasted in getting this list ready delving over Rainville than any other player. And I’m still not sure what to say, other than I hope his velocity bounces back in 2006.
18. Waldrop, Kyle RHP Beloit, age 20
+es: Good control. Proobably the best change-up in the fastball. A projectable enough body where it wouldn’t be surprising if his 90 mph fastball picks up a couple miles per hour in velocity.
-es: Haunted by inconsistent mechanics. Doesn’t have the great breaking stuff to be an ace at this time.
High Ceiling: Brad Radke
More realistically: TBD
Comment: Baseball America when running down the Twins’ system rated Waldrop’s change-up the best in the system, so the Radke comp may hold a little more water than most of the other names it gets applied to. Then again Radke might not be the right comp either, given Waldrop is a groundball pitcher. And that might have been hurt more by Winfree and Plouffe’s high error totals than most pitchers. All you can say is keep an eye on him in ’06.
19. Slowey, Kevin RHP Beloit, age 22
+es: Very good control. Very polished. Should move very quickly up the system.
-es: Doesn’t have one great pitch to lean on. The more his control back tracks as he moves up the ladder, the more of an issue that becomes.
High Ceiling: Rick Reed
More realistically: Kyle Lohse
Comments: Slowey has a good chance of going Baker throughout the system. He very well hit Double-A by the end. Because he’s really not likely to hit his first challenge until he gets there. Beware about overrating him until he gets there.
20. Deeds, Doug LF New Britain, age 24
+es: Decent power. Good batting stroke.
-es: Doesn’t have a very high ceiling. Could wind up a fourth outfielder/4A player
High Ceiling: Marty Cordova
More realistically: Matt Diaz or Dustan Mohr
Comments: The big question about Deeds is will he get a chance? Of the three players listed, there isn’t a lot of difference between them as far as their game goes. The difference is between them is one got the chance to be a full-time player and made the most of it (Cordova), while the other had their initial struggles and fell into fourth outfielder/4A status. Deeds shot to see where he falls is likely coming in 2007, when Shannon Stewart and possibly Torii Hunter will be distant memories. Hopefully he makes the most of it.
+es: Big fastball that goes as high as 96 miles per hour and usually sits in the low 90s. Sharp slider. A smooth, easy delivery that should keep him healthy.
-es: His change-up is pedestrian at best. And that might confine him to relief. Inconsistent release points may hurt him more as he moves up.
High Ceiling: A Matt Clement-type.
More realistically: TBD
Comments: You can say the same thing about Garza that you can about most of the Twins power pitching prospects aside from Swarzak. If he develops a change-up and it doesn’t cost him his sharp breaking stuff to do it, a la Adam Johnson, he has a shot at being a pretty good starter. If he doesn’’t, his future lies in relief.
12. Span, Denard CF New Britain, age 22
+es: Is to fast what Matt LeCroy is to slow. Has a good idea on how to do the things a lead-off hitter needs to do—work the count, get on base, and how to utilize his speed.
-es: About as much power right now as Ghana has in the U.N. Poor throwing arm. Has very poor baseball instincts in the field and on the bases. Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus described his reactions in the outfield as if he shouted Marco and expected the ball to say Polo to let him know where it was.
High Ceiling: Kenny Lofton
More realistically: Alex Sanchez
Comments: There was a question asked about Span in last week’s BA chat about Span during their Twins top-ten list that didn’t really get answered all that well. Since it was lonestar’s question, I thought I’d take a crack.
Q: For a guy as fast as Span, he sure does have a poor SBCS ratio. Are the Twins working with him on this? People compare him to a Lofton type, but can he get the XBH's Lofton got?
A: Mike Berardino: Span hasn't shown the extra-base pop yet but the Twins believe that will come. He's been a project but his tools are undeniable. He is the best athlete, fastest player and best defensive OF in the system. It's quite possible he will take over for Torii Hunter in 2007.
Bernandino sort of misses the point, that this is an impossible question to answer right now. Even Lofton himself didn’t start hitting for power until he was 27. To take it back to a Twins’ leadoff hitter from the past, Chuck Knoblauch didn’t hit for any power until he was 26. Scott Podsednik, Brian Roberts, same thing. If Span is going to have a power breakout, it’s going to be the result of his body maturing at some point in his mid-20s. It will probably be given away by a spike in doubles the year before a homerun spike. But then again, sometimes that spike never comes. It never did for Otis Nixon, or Juan Pierre, or Luis Castillo, or Alex Sanchez. All you can really do at this point is wait and see.
13. Perkins, Glen LHP New Britain, age 23
+es: An improved fastball that now touches 94 mph instead of 92 mph. Good change-up.
-es: Not a great athlete. His flat feet are some cause for concern. Could use a better curveball.
High Ceiling: Ted Lilly.
More realistically: Actually Ted Lilly is about perfect. The problem is out of need or lack of faith they often become Eddie Guardados or Neal Cottses instead.
Comments: Had I known about his velocity spike, I probably would have stuck Perkins a little higher on this list. Not because it drastically changes who he is as a prospect to me, but it will significantly increase the number of chances he’ll get to remain in the rotation. IMO, given the number of starters in the system odds are he winds up solving the inevitable “lefty in the pen” problems the Twins are going to have this year.
14. Jones, Justin LHP Ft Myers, age 21
+es: Good fastball that tops out at 95 mph, when healthy. Good change-up, when healthy. Devastating curve, when healthy.
-es: Didn’t you notice all those, “when healthy”s?
High Ceiling: Mark Mulder-esq
More Realistically: TBD.
Comments: If Jones stays healthy in 2006, he could see himself breakout in a Francisco Liriano like way. If he doesn’t stay healthy, well, there’s always next year. But he becomes a longer shot next year. Jones is really one of those prospects that there is no middle ground with. He'll either be very good, or go the way of Johnny Ard.
15. Winfree, David 3B Beloit, age 20
+es:Power. Power. Power and did I mention power? Also he might have the tools to stay at third base. Also noted for being a hard worker.
-es: Very error-prone at third, mostly because he’s still adjusting to playing the position. Very slow baserunner. About as selective as A-Wan at a meat-market bar after a dozen beers.
High Ceiling: Dean Palmer. A non-Coors aided Vinny Castilla.
More realistically: TBD
Comments: They said in the Midwest League that the ball made a different, louder sound when it came off Winfree’s bat. That’s all well and good, but if the high error totals move him off third then he’s in trouble, unless it drives him to catcher. Winfree isn’t fast enough to handle a corner outfield position, and for his lack of strike-zone judgment to work at first he’s going to have to hit a lot more homeruns. If that move occurs, then in the words of Belle and Sebastian it could’ve been a brilliant career.
16. Pridie, Jason CF Montgomery (Rule V), age 22
+es: A five tool talent, with a quick swing, some pop, good speed and a very strong arm that use to flirt with the mid-90s as a high school pitcher.
-es: Too much of a free-swinger for his own good. Has to stick on the 25 man roster next year or be offered back to the Devil Rays.
High Ceiling: The white Torii Hunter
More realistically: TBD, although Laynce Nix makes sense as far as the flame-out categories goes.
Comments: I probably would have rated him an inch above Span if it weren’t for the whole Rule-V thing. If it weren’t for the redundancy that is Puntro, the two-headed utility infield monster, there might be a roster spot for him. As it stands now, his only chance of making the club is if Kubel isn’t ready and Ruben Sierra actual age turns out to be closer to 50. And even then Gardenhire will be praising his veteran presence. Given the lack of high-ceiling outfield prospects in the system, that really is a shame.
17. Rainville, Jay RHP Ft Myers, age 20
+es: Really good control. Has thrown really hard in the past. Pretty good hammer curve. Shows really good control
-es: Velocity was down from the low 90s to the high-80s last year. Might not have the prerequisite off-speed stuff to remain a starter.
High Ceiling: Baseball America has compared him to a young Curt Schilling on several occasions.
More realistically: I don’t know. Shock D. calls him the minor league Carlos Silva, but Rainville is an extreme flyball pitcher. The minor league Scott Elarton sounds more accurate. But it may come across as a little mean.
Comments: Probably more time was wasted in getting this list ready delving over Rainville than any other player. And I’m still not sure what to say, other than I hope his velocity bounces back in 2006.
18. Waldrop, Kyle RHP Beloit, age 20
+es: Good control. Proobably the best change-up in the fastball. A projectable enough body where it wouldn’t be surprising if his 90 mph fastball picks up a couple miles per hour in velocity.
-es: Haunted by inconsistent mechanics. Doesn’t have the great breaking stuff to be an ace at this time.
High Ceiling: Brad Radke
More realistically: TBD
Comment: Baseball America when running down the Twins’ system rated Waldrop’s change-up the best in the system, so the Radke comp may hold a little more water than most of the other names it gets applied to. Then again Radke might not be the right comp either, given Waldrop is a groundball pitcher. And that might have been hurt more by Winfree and Plouffe’s high error totals than most pitchers. All you can say is keep an eye on him in ’06.
19. Slowey, Kevin RHP Beloit, age 22
+es: Very good control. Very polished. Should move very quickly up the system.
-es: Doesn’t have one great pitch to lean on. The more his control back tracks as he moves up the ladder, the more of an issue that becomes.
High Ceiling: Rick Reed
More realistically: Kyle Lohse
Comments: Slowey has a good chance of going Baker throughout the system. He very well hit Double-A by the end. Because he’s really not likely to hit his first challenge until he gets there. Beware about overrating him until he gets there.
20. Deeds, Doug LF New Britain, age 24
+es: Decent power. Good batting stroke.
-es: Doesn’t have a very high ceiling. Could wind up a fourth outfielder/4A player
High Ceiling: Marty Cordova
More realistically: Matt Diaz or Dustan Mohr
Comments: The big question about Deeds is will he get a chance? Of the three players listed, there isn’t a lot of difference between them as far as their game goes. The difference is between them is one got the chance to be a full-time player and made the most of it (Cordova), while the other had their initial struggles and fell into fourth outfielder/4A status. Deeds shot to see where he falls is likely coming in 2007, when Shannon Stewart and possibly Torii Hunter will be distant memories. Hopefully he makes the most of it.
Thursday, February 02, 2006
The Jewscott Fantasy Baseball League
I've started a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball League as always. Anybody who wants in, send me an e-maill at jwescott35@hotmail.com
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