If the over/under on the number of them making the big leagues next year is zero, can you really call it an over/under?
Tuesday, January 31, 2006
Transaction Analysis: Minor League Filler
The Twins signed former major leaguers Ruben Sierra, Pete Munro, Ryan Glynn and Tim Raines, Jr. to minor-league contracts.
If the over/under on the number of them making the big leagues next year is zero, can you really call it an over/under?
If the over/under on the number of them making the big leagues next year is zero, can you really call it an over/under?
Sunday, January 29, 2006
An Open Letter to Allard Baird
12 years ago today, I got my first e-mail account—uowjwesc@oregon.uoregon.edu. It was for a class that was trying to get young journalism students ready for the impending revolution. And had I known then that 12 years later it would lead me down this path, god knows I would’ve dropped the class and gone running for the hills.
I was hooked rather quickly though. Even 12 years later, can you name a better place to go when you need a quick porn fix or to feel holier-than-thou about sports? And recently, when brushing up on what to expect from the Kansas City Royals, it’s kind of been giving me some flashbacks to those mid-to-late 90s. Twins. When the Twins were horrible, and the only thing you could do as a fan was to rebuild them in your head.
I miss those days. So I thought it might be fun to relieve them. And since we simply can’t do that with the Twins so much any more, why not do it for the Royals? So what started as a simple post about what each team needs to do becomes something more intense. So here we start:
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
2005 Record: 56-106
Projected 2006 AL Central Finish: 5th.
So what went wrong in 2005? You could probably right a volume the length of War and Peace on the subject. Not that it needs to be. When you’re 12th out of 14 teams in Runs Scored and dead last in ERA, you lose a lot of ball games. Rookies John Buck, Ruben Gotay and Mark Teahen were absolute disasters in their first full years, and second year pitcher Zack Greinke took a major step backwards. And instead of suddenly turning into Mickey Mantle or something, Terrence Long had a typical Terrence Long kind of year. Oh and there was that pitching staff. Did we mention they were horrible?
So what went right in 2005? Surprisingly, a lot. David DeJesus emerged as a pretty good centerfield option, hitting nearly .300 and playing solid defense. Mike Sweeney had a solid comeback year, reaching 500 plate appearances for the first time since 2002. Andrew Sisco may not be Johan Santana, but he managed to stick the whole year as a Rule V pick and put up some impressive numbers in the process. Emil Brown was claimed off the scrap heap and had a solid year hitting. Ambiorix Burgos had one of the finest years a player who shares a name with a Gaulois warlord has ever had.
So how do you make things right in the future? Well, for one thing, first you have to figure out what kind of team you need to win. For starters, you have to look at the ball park, and see what tendencies it has. Then you need to take a good look at the pieces you already have on your team, in both the majors and the minors.
So how does the park play? The Royals moved the fences at Kauffman Stadium back 10 feet before the 2004 season. The end result has been fewer homeruns, but lots more extra base hits. Here are the numbers according to the Bill James Handbook:
Year AVG R 2B 3B HR LH-AVG LH-HR RH-AVG RH-HR
2005 103 101 116 113 73 101 72 104 74
04-05 101 97 108 125 73 99 73 102 74
Essentially, Kauffman has gone from the American League’s version of Coors Field when it comes to runs scored to the American League’s version of Coors Field when it to having more ground for its outfielders to cover.
So what kind of players profile well in this kind of park? From a strategy standpoint, the one given in this kind of park is that you need outfielders who cover a lot of ground defensively, and who can get into the gaps and turn potential extra base hits into singles and outs. A serious fly chaser in center field is essential, and corners who could play center field play a part. Ideally you’d want that corner to be Larry Walker in his prime, but defense has to play a part of it.
Because odds are you’ll end up giving up some offense in the outfield, you need infields, especially corner infielders who can rake. A second baseman and/or shortstop also become offensive positions. To counterbalance it, the pitching staff needs to be stocked with extreme fly ball pitchers. You can get away with having an Eric Milton on your staff when your ball park gives up 25% fewer than normal homeruns and your outfield> In fact, that’s the biggest difference between Milton and Barry Zito as pitchers. Take Zito out of the Collesium and put him in Cincinatti and you’re looking at very different results.
So how do the pieces the Royals have right now? Looking at the Royals from piece to piece:
John Buck, C: The numbers, both offensively and defensively, scream that he’s the new Tim Laudner. But he’s young enough for that assessment to be wrong. If his OBP is under .300 in July though, it’s time to go looking for a new catcher.
Paul Bako, C: As far as back-up catchers go, he's not bad.
Mike Sweeney, 1B: The prototypical hard-hitting 1B/DH when healthy. The problem is that second part hasn’t been happening. Still, a good start at DH.
Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B: The antithesis of the prototypical hard-hitting first baseman. An upgrade is needed.
Matt Stairs, IB/DH/OF: Great hitter against righties. Not so great hitter against lefties. Horrific defender in the outfield and at first base. The first one is the scary proposition.
Mark Grudzielanek, 2B: Solid hitter. Poor defense. We probably want more offense out of our second baseman. But not a bad stopgap.
Ruben Gotay, 2B: Bad 2005 offensive season, but very solid offense coming up through the system. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles a reserve role, and if he can steal at-bats away from Grudzielanek, it’s not a bad thing.
Angel Berroa, SS: Poor glove and bat. Probably the first position that needs to be upgraded.
Mark Teahen, 3B: Not a lot of pop, but good defense. The question becomes can he become a perennial .300 hitter and something of a Bill Mueller type player? Probably no, but then again who knows for sure?
David DeJesus, CF: Good contact hitter. Good OBP. Good outfield defense. Definitely a cog the team can build around.
Emil Brown, RF: Good hitter, but even Manny Ramirez is a better defensive outfielder. Part of the problem, not the solution.
Reggie Sanders, LF: A good hitter, but not really known for his defense or ability to stay healthy. Not really what the team needs in a left fielder, but possibly something they could parlay into a good trade come July 31st.
Chip Ambres, OF: Interesting year. Interesting tools. Not a centerfielder, but has a shot to be the kind of corner outfielder the team needs.
Zack Greinke, SP: Solid stuff. Shades towards being a flyball pitcher. Another piece you can build around, if you give him some semblance of defense.
Scott Elarton, SP: Signed to a 2-year, $8 million contract this offseason. You want better results, but his flyball nature fits what we’re building.
Mark Redman, SP: Solid #5 starter. Potential Free agent after the season. Generally a fly ball pitcher. He fits. But you kind of hope you can do better.
Runelvys Hernandez, SP: Killed by his outfield last year. A fly ball pitcher, so he works in that manner. But the rest of the peripheral numbers mean you should probably look elsewhere.
Joe Mays, SP: Leaky peripherals aside, a sinkerball pitcher won’t work with what we’re trying to build.
Bobby Madritsch, SP: Good stuff and the right kind of pitcher. He has to stay healthy for that to work out though. And labrum injuries aren’t easy to come back from. Still a good risk.
J.P.Howell, SP: A good pitching prospect, but his extreme groundball tendencies in both the majors and the minors work against him. I’d see what Cincinatti would offer for him.
Danny Batista, SP: Big arm. Big control problems. Big groundball tendency. Probably worth hiding in the bullpen to try and build up some trade value.
Mike MacDougal, RP: Finally learned how to harness his awesome stuff last year. A good closer, and an extreme groundball pitcher, it might be smart to see what Atlanta would offer for him.
Jeremy Affeldt, RP: We’re starting a trend here. His stuff was compared to Sandy Koufax when he came up. But the results have been the antithesis to Koufax. An extreme groundballer, it’s probably worth seeing what his trade value is.
Ambiorix Burgos, RP: Overpowering stuff. Potentially a great closer. But if you do trade MacDougal he’s not there yet.
Elmer Dessens, SP/RP: A pretty good reliever, as a starter he doesn’t fit our team philosophy of finding flyballers.
Andrew Sisco, RP: Could be an overpowering lefty reliever for many years to come. But it might be worth it to send him back to the farm and see if he can develop into a starter.
Leo Nunez, RP: His 2005 numbers look bad, but at the same time he blew people away as a minor league starter, and a step forward could still be coming. A flyball pitcher, to boot.
Mike Wood, RP: A groundball pitcher with poor peripherals. Pass.
So what does the team have on the farm that could help? When the BA Royals top-ten list comes out tomorrow, the top five should look something like this:
1. Alex Gordon, 3B
2. Billy Butler, 3B/LF/IB
3. Luis Cota, RHP
4. Justin Huber C/1B
5. Chris Lubanski, “CF”
Gordon was the #2 pick in the draft last year. And he has the ability to be everything the team has been looking for in a third baseman since George Brett left the position over a decade ago. Butler has done nothing but mash since the Royals drafted him in 2004. He’ll probably move to first base, and the biggest concern is that while his numbers were good last year, the ballpark at Lancaster is a notorious hitters park. Chris Lubanski, for example hit .359 with 19 homeruns at home last year and .245 with 9 homeruns on the road. On top of which, Lubasnki is slowing down both on the field and the basepaths. Huber’s worst case scenario looks something like Matty LeCroy, which instantly makes me like him. He doesn’t have a position, and is mechanical at both first base and behind the plate. He tore the cover off the ball in the minors, though he does have a massive lefty/righty split, hitting .387 off lefties in AAA compared to .236 off righties. Cota has one of the strongest right arms in baseball, and gets the ball into the high 90s with an easy delivery.
After the top five, things get a little more difficult to project. 2005 draftee shortstop Jeff Bianchi should be in it after his brilliant .408/.485/.745 opening as a shortstop in the Arizona rookie league, and may break into the top 5 over Lubanski. Fellow 2005 pick Joe Dickerson had a great debut too. Donnie Murphy has a chance to be that power-hitting second baseman the team needs. Andres Blanco is a great defensive shortstop but he isn’t much of a hitter. Shane Costa has the ability to get on-base and play a good defensive corner outfield. Billy Buckner, no relation to the other Billy Buckner, has a good arm and you can make a case for him being as hurt by the ballpark at Lancaster. But at the same time, there isn’t much pitching going right in the system aside from him.
So what should the starting line-up look like in 2006? If I were running the team, it would look something like this:
1. David DeJesus, CF
2. Mark Grudzielanek, 2B
3. Mike Sweeney, DH
4. Reggie Sanders, LF
5. Matt Stairs v. R/Justin Huber v. L, IB
6. Mark Teahen, 3B
7. Chip Ambres, RF
8. John Buck, C
9. TBD, SS
With a rotation of:
1. Zack Greinke
2. Scott Elarton
3. Mark Redman
4. Bobby Madritsch
5. TBD
Mike MacDougal closes, but at the same time, he’s tradeable. As is Affeldt. The rest of the bullpen has the chance to be something with Burgos, Nunez, Batista and Sisco.
So what does this system need? In order of importance.
1. A shortsop who can hit.
2. Young starting pitching,
3. Speedy outfielders
4. Possibly a good young catcher
What does the system have enough of?
1. Power hitting corner infielders
2. Power bullpen arms
So that said, how do you turn the Kansas City Royals into a winner? I leave the kibitzing to you.
I was hooked rather quickly though. Even 12 years later, can you name a better place to go when you need a quick porn fix or to feel holier-than-thou about sports? And recently, when brushing up on what to expect from the Kansas City Royals, it’s kind of been giving me some flashbacks to those mid-to-late 90s. Twins. When the Twins were horrible, and the only thing you could do as a fan was to rebuild them in your head.
I miss those days. So I thought it might be fun to relieve them. And since we simply can’t do that with the Twins so much any more, why not do it for the Royals? So what started as a simple post about what each team needs to do becomes something more intense. So here we start:
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
2005 Record: 56-106
Projected 2006 AL Central Finish: 5th.
So what went wrong in 2005? You could probably right a volume the length of War and Peace on the subject. Not that it needs to be. When you’re 12th out of 14 teams in Runs Scored and dead last in ERA, you lose a lot of ball games. Rookies John Buck, Ruben Gotay and Mark Teahen were absolute disasters in their first full years, and second year pitcher Zack Greinke took a major step backwards. And instead of suddenly turning into Mickey Mantle or something, Terrence Long had a typical Terrence Long kind of year. Oh and there was that pitching staff. Did we mention they were horrible?
So what went right in 2005? Surprisingly, a lot. David DeJesus emerged as a pretty good centerfield option, hitting nearly .300 and playing solid defense. Mike Sweeney had a solid comeback year, reaching 500 plate appearances for the first time since 2002. Andrew Sisco may not be Johan Santana, but he managed to stick the whole year as a Rule V pick and put up some impressive numbers in the process. Emil Brown was claimed off the scrap heap and had a solid year hitting. Ambiorix Burgos had one of the finest years a player who shares a name with a Gaulois warlord has ever had.
So how do you make things right in the future? Well, for one thing, first you have to figure out what kind of team you need to win. For starters, you have to look at the ball park, and see what tendencies it has. Then you need to take a good look at the pieces you already have on your team, in both the majors and the minors.
So how does the park play? The Royals moved the fences at Kauffman Stadium back 10 feet before the 2004 season. The end result has been fewer homeruns, but lots more extra base hits. Here are the numbers according to the Bill James Handbook:
Year AVG R 2B 3B HR LH-AVG LH-HR RH-AVG RH-HR
2005 103 101 116 113 73 101 72 104 74
04-05 101 97 108 125 73 99 73 102 74
Essentially, Kauffman has gone from the American League’s version of Coors Field when it comes to runs scored to the American League’s version of Coors Field when it to having more ground for its outfielders to cover.
So what kind of players profile well in this kind of park? From a strategy standpoint, the one given in this kind of park is that you need outfielders who cover a lot of ground defensively, and who can get into the gaps and turn potential extra base hits into singles and outs. A serious fly chaser in center field is essential, and corners who could play center field play a part. Ideally you’d want that corner to be Larry Walker in his prime, but defense has to play a part of it.
Because odds are you’ll end up giving up some offense in the outfield, you need infields, especially corner infielders who can rake. A second baseman and/or shortstop also become offensive positions. To counterbalance it, the pitching staff needs to be stocked with extreme fly ball pitchers. You can get away with having an Eric Milton on your staff when your ball park gives up 25% fewer than normal homeruns and your outfield> In fact, that’s the biggest difference between Milton and Barry Zito as pitchers. Take Zito out of the Collesium and put him in Cincinatti and you’re looking at very different results.
So how do the pieces the Royals have right now? Looking at the Royals from piece to piece:
John Buck, C: The numbers, both offensively and defensively, scream that he’s the new Tim Laudner. But he’s young enough for that assessment to be wrong. If his OBP is under .300 in July though, it’s time to go looking for a new catcher.
Paul Bako, C: As far as back-up catchers go, he's not bad.
Mike Sweeney, 1B: The prototypical hard-hitting 1B/DH when healthy. The problem is that second part hasn’t been happening. Still, a good start at DH.
Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B: The antithesis of the prototypical hard-hitting first baseman. An upgrade is needed.
Matt Stairs, IB/DH/OF: Great hitter against righties. Not so great hitter against lefties. Horrific defender in the outfield and at first base. The first one is the scary proposition.
Mark Grudzielanek, 2B: Solid hitter. Poor defense. We probably want more offense out of our second baseman. But not a bad stopgap.
Ruben Gotay, 2B: Bad 2005 offensive season, but very solid offense coming up through the system. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles a reserve role, and if he can steal at-bats away from Grudzielanek, it’s not a bad thing.
Angel Berroa, SS: Poor glove and bat. Probably the first position that needs to be upgraded.
Mark Teahen, 3B: Not a lot of pop, but good defense. The question becomes can he become a perennial .300 hitter and something of a Bill Mueller type player? Probably no, but then again who knows for sure?
David DeJesus, CF: Good contact hitter. Good OBP. Good outfield defense. Definitely a cog the team can build around.
Emil Brown, RF: Good hitter, but even Manny Ramirez is a better defensive outfielder. Part of the problem, not the solution.
Reggie Sanders, LF: A good hitter, but not really known for his defense or ability to stay healthy. Not really what the team needs in a left fielder, but possibly something they could parlay into a good trade come July 31st.
Chip Ambres, OF: Interesting year. Interesting tools. Not a centerfielder, but has a shot to be the kind of corner outfielder the team needs.
Zack Greinke, SP: Solid stuff. Shades towards being a flyball pitcher. Another piece you can build around, if you give him some semblance of defense.
Scott Elarton, SP: Signed to a 2-year, $8 million contract this offseason. You want better results, but his flyball nature fits what we’re building.
Mark Redman, SP: Solid #5 starter. Potential Free agent after the season. Generally a fly ball pitcher. He fits. But you kind of hope you can do better.
Runelvys Hernandez, SP: Killed by his outfield last year. A fly ball pitcher, so he works in that manner. But the rest of the peripheral numbers mean you should probably look elsewhere.
Joe Mays, SP: Leaky peripherals aside, a sinkerball pitcher won’t work with what we’re trying to build.
Bobby Madritsch, SP: Good stuff and the right kind of pitcher. He has to stay healthy for that to work out though. And labrum injuries aren’t easy to come back from. Still a good risk.
J.P.Howell, SP: A good pitching prospect, but his extreme groundball tendencies in both the majors and the minors work against him. I’d see what Cincinatti would offer for him.
Danny Batista, SP: Big arm. Big control problems. Big groundball tendency. Probably worth hiding in the bullpen to try and build up some trade value.
Mike MacDougal, RP: Finally learned how to harness his awesome stuff last year. A good closer, and an extreme groundball pitcher, it might be smart to see what Atlanta would offer for him.
Jeremy Affeldt, RP: We’re starting a trend here. His stuff was compared to Sandy Koufax when he came up. But the results have been the antithesis to Koufax. An extreme groundballer, it’s probably worth seeing what his trade value is.
Ambiorix Burgos, RP: Overpowering stuff. Potentially a great closer. But if you do trade MacDougal he’s not there yet.
Elmer Dessens, SP/RP: A pretty good reliever, as a starter he doesn’t fit our team philosophy of finding flyballers.
Andrew Sisco, RP: Could be an overpowering lefty reliever for many years to come. But it might be worth it to send him back to the farm and see if he can develop into a starter.
Leo Nunez, RP: His 2005 numbers look bad, but at the same time he blew people away as a minor league starter, and a step forward could still be coming. A flyball pitcher, to boot.
Mike Wood, RP: A groundball pitcher with poor peripherals. Pass.
So what does the team have on the farm that could help? When the BA Royals top-ten list comes out tomorrow, the top five should look something like this:
1. Alex Gordon, 3B
2. Billy Butler, 3B/LF/IB
3. Luis Cota, RHP
4. Justin Huber C/1B
5. Chris Lubanski, “CF”
Gordon was the #2 pick in the draft last year. And he has the ability to be everything the team has been looking for in a third baseman since George Brett left the position over a decade ago. Butler has done nothing but mash since the Royals drafted him in 2004. He’ll probably move to first base, and the biggest concern is that while his numbers were good last year, the ballpark at Lancaster is a notorious hitters park. Chris Lubanski, for example hit .359 with 19 homeruns at home last year and .245 with 9 homeruns on the road. On top of which, Lubasnki is slowing down both on the field and the basepaths. Huber’s worst case scenario looks something like Matty LeCroy, which instantly makes me like him. He doesn’t have a position, and is mechanical at both first base and behind the plate. He tore the cover off the ball in the minors, though he does have a massive lefty/righty split, hitting .387 off lefties in AAA compared to .236 off righties. Cota has one of the strongest right arms in baseball, and gets the ball into the high 90s with an easy delivery.
After the top five, things get a little more difficult to project. 2005 draftee shortstop Jeff Bianchi should be in it after his brilliant .408/.485/.745 opening as a shortstop in the Arizona rookie league, and may break into the top 5 over Lubanski. Fellow 2005 pick Joe Dickerson had a great debut too. Donnie Murphy has a chance to be that power-hitting second baseman the team needs. Andres Blanco is a great defensive shortstop but he isn’t much of a hitter. Shane Costa has the ability to get on-base and play a good defensive corner outfield. Billy Buckner, no relation to the other Billy Buckner, has a good arm and you can make a case for him being as hurt by the ballpark at Lancaster. But at the same time, there isn’t much pitching going right in the system aside from him.
So what should the starting line-up look like in 2006? If I were running the team, it would look something like this:
1. David DeJesus, CF
2. Mark Grudzielanek, 2B
3. Mike Sweeney, DH
4. Reggie Sanders, LF
5. Matt Stairs v. R/Justin Huber v. L, IB
6. Mark Teahen, 3B
7. Chip Ambres, RF
8. John Buck, C
9. TBD, SS
With a rotation of:
1. Zack Greinke
2. Scott Elarton
3. Mark Redman
4. Bobby Madritsch
5. TBD
Mike MacDougal closes, but at the same time, he’s tradeable. As is Affeldt. The rest of the bullpen has the chance to be something with Burgos, Nunez, Batista and Sisco.
So what does this system need? In order of importance.
1. A shortsop who can hit.
2. Young starting pitching,
3. Speedy outfielders
4. Possibly a good young catcher
What does the system have enough of?
1. Power hitting corner infielders
2. Power bullpen arms
So that said, how do you turn the Kansas City Royals into a winner? I leave the kibitzing to you.
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
Dipping dots
• I was wrong about the complete absence of minor league splits. Baseball America's 2006 Almanac has BA vs Lefties and BA vs Righties in it. Far from complete yes. But better than nothing. Among the more interesting ones, Matt Moses hit lefties for a higher average than righties in 2005.
• If you haven't set your iTunes to download Baseball Prospectus Radio every Saturday, I highly recommend it.
• Gophers Lefty John Gaub was named the Big Ten's top prospect for the 2006 and 2007 drafts by Baseball America. The Jewscott odds of him being the Twins' first pick in June open at 2-1.
• Any one have anything they want to chat about that hasn't been broached yet?
• If you haven't set your iTunes to download Baseball Prospectus Radio every Saturday, I highly recommend it.
• Gophers Lefty John Gaub was named the Big Ten's top prospect for the 2006 and 2007 drafts by Baseball America. The Jewscott odds of him being the Twins' first pick in June open at 2-1.
• Any one have anything they want to chat about that hasn't been broached yet?
Monday, January 16, 2006
A mid-January Baseball Fix
I haven't been writing much lately. Partly because there really hasn't been anything important to write about. Partly because I've been spending most of my free-time dubbing old Vikings games to DVD for my dad. You see, my dad bought his first VCR around 1981 as a way of recording and keeping every Vikings win for posterity. And while it may seem very, well, Type-A, it's also quite an interesting collection. Jerry Rice's first game lies in my dad's collection of football games. So does Randy Moss'. There's even a game against the Los Angeles Rams where the Vikings win on overtime on a safety and Rich Karlis kicks seven field goals.
But while there's over 200 football games in this collection, there are only two baseball games. The seventh game of the 1991 World Series. And the seventh game of the 1987 World Series. Last week I dubbed the '87 game to DVD, and it was great. Here it was, the middle of January, and I was sitting on my deck watching a baseball game. I enjoyed it so much I decided to write up every little detail of the game, so you guys could grab a baseball fix too.
Enjoy.
Pregame: It’s takes roughly five milliseconds for Al Michaels to mention how big the Twins home field advantage is. He also comments that the Cardinals starting line-up for the evening has hit 32 homeruns on the season. The same number Tom Brunansky hit in 1987. You really do have to wonder what would have happened if the Cardinals had a healthy Jack Clark for the Series. But that’s a OOTP What-If Question.
Commercials: It’s good to know that while graphical and special effect capabilities have expanded greatly in 18 years, the central theme of beer commercials remains the same.
Pregarme: Roy Campenela reminds us that many of baseball’s greats have never won a World Series title. One has to winder whether or not Johan Santana is going to fall in that trap.
Tom Kelly then mentions he spent the night before the game tossing and turning. On an unrelated note, has anyone ever noticed how quickly he aged with those Twins teams of the mid-90s?
Whitey Herzog then mentions then difference between the Twins on the road and the Twins at home. And how much better they hit there. One of Rob Neyer’s arguments against Kirby Puckett for the hall-of-fame in fact was that 140 point difference between his home and road OPSes, to show that Hank Blalock isn’t the only one who suffers from this disease.
Commercials: Has any actor lost more cool over the past two decades than Jon Cryer?
Peter Jennings mentions the stock market is up in Japan and that people were still trying to figure out what happened on Black Monday. Reagan is also feeling the pinch to cut spending and raise taxes. Also, Iraq beat Iran in a volleyball game. Played in Kuwait, who was then an ally of Iraq. My how times have changed.
The Jets then sing the National Anthem. My how times have changed. Given the showiness of baseball today, anyone less than Dylan or Prince singing it would’ve been Torry-hate crime had this game been played in 2006. I say vive la difference.
Commercials: Okay, maybe O.J. Simpson has lost more cool than Cryer.
Back to Al Michaels, who mentions the visiting team has won 17 out of the 30 seventh games in baseball history. Then to Tim McCarver, who mentions the Cardinals last seven World Series have gone to a seventh game. Then to Jim Palmer, who thankfully spares us his underwear poses.
Commercials: Chevy could never claim to be the Heartbeart of America these days. The Heartbeat of Central America, now that’s another story.
Howard Fox, Calvin Griffith and Carl Pohlad throw out the first pitch. The thing that strikes me about Pohald is that he actually looks like he’s in great shape in 1987. Then the Twins take the field St. Louis’ starting line-up:
Vince Coleman LF
Ozzie Smith SS
Tom Herr 2B
Jim Lindeman 1B
Willie McGee CF
Tony Pena DH
Jose Oqeundo, LF
Tom Lawless 3B
Steve Lake C
Note that not one player in this line-up ends up winds up with a career slugging percentage over .400. Which may just explain some of those line-ups Tom Kelly was trying to win with post-1993. Hey, if the Cards can do it…
Frank Viola takes the mound. Paul Molitor comes in to give the inside pitch, which is a rather mundane comment about him having a good change-up and being hard to steal off of. Then Vince Coleman steps up to the plate. Viola starts him off with a slow curve right on the outside corner for strike one. Pitch two is a high-inside fastball that’s probably a ball. But Coleman swings and fouls it off instead. Strike two. For pitch three, Viola stays high fastball. This time Coleman can’t catch-up. And the game starts with a three-pitch strikeout. Ozzie Smith steps into the box. Viola starts him out with two slow curves in the dirt. Then throws two fastballs high and over the plate. The second Smith sends a soft liner to the gap that Kirby Puckett runs down for an easy out. Seven pitches. Two down. Tom Herr takes two pitches outside the zone before grounding out to Gary Gaetti. Ten pitches. One strikeout. And two easy plays for two Gold Glovers. Does a first inning get any easy?
Commercial: Ah the IBM PC XT. It’s funny to think that a computer with 512K of memory was ever vital.
Now it’s the Twins turn at bat. The line-up?
Dan Gladden LF
Greg Gagne SS
Kirby Puckett CF
Gary Gaetti 3B
Don Baylor DH
Tom Brunansky RF
Kent Hrbek 1B
Tim Laudner C
Steve Lombardozzi 2B.
If the Cardinals have no power, the Twins have it to spare. Of course the Cardinals have the OBP and the speed thing going for them. It’s a battle between a dead-ball offense and a modern one.
Gladden illustrates the Twins’ OBP woes by immediately getting two strikes on himself. Joe Magrane, the Cardinal’s starter wastes a pitch. Then Gladden hits a ball hard down the line that Lindeman makes a great play on. Gagne follows suit, getting two strikes on himelf quickly. Then after fouling a pitch off, he chases a slider way out of the zone. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Puckett gets on with an infield hit that illustrates a central theme of this game. With Terry Pendleton out with a rib injury, Tom Lawless had to man third base for the Cardinals. Pendleton, a gold-glove third baseman with a strong arm easily throws Puckett out on that play. Lawless, with a much weaker throwing arm, makes it a close play (replays later show that Puckett was in fact out) and the call goes the Twins way. It doesn’t kill the Cards yet though. Gaetti rips one into the gap. But Jose Oquendo makes the play. The first inning ends scoreless.
Commercial: In hindsight, I guess the stock market crash of Black Monday wasn’t the start of the Second Great Depression.
In the first, the announces made a comment about the difference between Viola in Game One and the Viola in Game Four. The Game Four Viola left too many pitches up in the zone. And the Cardinals took advantage. In the first inning Viola got away with a few pitches up in the zone too. In the second inning, Viola wouldn’t be so lucky. Jim Lindeman takes the first pitch Viola throws, a high fastball, and bloops one into center for a hit. Viola then leaves a change-up high in the zone and Willie McGee rips one to left for another hit. And Viola starts to struggle. After putting one in the dirt, Viola hangs a curveball to Tony Pena. Which Pena promptly drills into the seats down the left field line, fortunately five feet foul. Five feet and you have a different ball game. The next pitch, a low fastball, Pena wraps up the middle giving St. Louis a 1-0 lead. Bert Blyleven quickly gets up in the pen. But Viola starts to calm down. Jose Oquendo pops up to Hrbek. Tom Lawless then pops one deep to centerfield, moving Willie McGee to third. Steve Lake then takes a first pitch change-up and lines it into left to drive in McGee. 2-0 Cardinals. But that’s it. Vince Coleman pops out to Greg Gagne and that’s the inning.
Commercial: If I ever get the chance to write a Wheaties commercial, I’m insisting they use the “Go Tell Your Momma What the Big Boys Eat” jingle. It’s definitely one of the top ten jingles ever written.
Don Baylor leads off the second and does what he does best. Gets hit by a pitch. A chart comes up telling us he’s only been hit by 110 other pitches between the years 1984 and 1987 so this isn’t the first time and that he had broken Ron Hunt’s career record for being hit. Tom Brunansky steps up and quickly takes ball one. He proceeds to knock the next fastball into left for a single. Hrbek follows Brunansky’s lead, taking two very close pitches. The bad calls start again though. Hrbek checks his swing on the next pitch, but third base umpire Don Sherry says he went. The replay shows pretty clearly Hrbek’s bat didn’t break the plate. But nonetheless, the bad call changes the complexion of the at-bat. Hrbek eventually strikes out on a pretty good pitch from Magrane. Tim Laudner then gets a chance to play hero, and almost does. He bounces a single between the shortstop and third baseman. Don Baylor breaks for home, and Vince Coleman’s throw beats him to the plate by a good margin. But Steve Lake misses the tag. Baylor is called out, and the bad calls continue (the one bright side being they seem to strike both teams). Two outs and Steve Lombardozzi steps to the plate and gets a high fastball he raps up the middle for a hit, scoring Tom Brunansky. Dan Gladden pops up to Tommy Herr in the next at-bat. But instead of a 2-2 game, the Twins had run themselves out of a potential big inning.
Commercial: Who could ever forget John Ritter as Hooperman? Millions I assume.
For the Twins to have a chance here, they need Frank Viola to settle down. And he does with a little help from his friends. Ozzie Smith chops a first pitch fastball, but Gary Gaetti goes up and gets it and shows one of the best arms to ever play third base in the process of gunning down the speedy Smith. Viola then gets ahead of Tommy Herr and strikes him out on a curve in the dirt. Then Viola gets up on Jim Lindeman 1-2 and gets him to chase a high fastball for strike three. It’s still 2-1 Cardinals, but if the mission is to get Frank Viola on a roll, then mission accomplished.
Commercials: A&E really needs to do a Spuds MacKenzie biography. The world needs to hear his full story.
Greg Gagne stirkes out. Puckett gets robbed of a homer. Gaetti gets on base because of an error on the first baseman and steals second, but Don Baylor strikes out. An economy of words to celebrate the first inning Joe Magrane gets by on an economy of pitches.
Commercials: What’s a bigger rip-off? Webster? Or Alex the Dog pitching Strohs Beer?
The Frank Viola Show continues. Willie McGee strikes out on four pitches, the last one being a fastball well out of the zone. Jim Palmer then makes a comment that Viola has yet to establish his change-up on the evening. But he doesn’t need to right now.Tony Pena chases a 93 mile-an-hour fastball that’s high and well out of the zone, and Viola has struck out four straight hitters. Jose Oquendo then breaks the chain by grounding the first pitch he sees to Gary Gaetti. 3 up. 3 down. Seven straight retired for Viola.
Commercials: I wonder if the guy who wrote the “Be All That You Can Be” jingle made more off the Army than the guy who invented the $15 bottle of ketchup.
The Twins still need a rally. But Tom Brunansky doesn’t help matters. He swings at the first pitch and lofts one to Vince Coleman. Then comes Kent Hrbek, and he does something completely out of character. He bunts. Joe Magrane seems stunned at first, but Hrbek was about as fast as a mail truck even in 1987 and is easily thrown out. Tim Laudner tries to start something with a walk. But then Steve Lombardozzi, the Twins leading hitter in post season hits a fly ball that Willie McGee handles easily. And that’s three away.
Commercials: Did it really ever only take 20,000 miles to get a free ticket on Northwest? 50,000 miles later I’m still waiting for my first.
The steamroller that is now Frank Viola continues to roll. Tom Lawless’ Game Four homerun off Viola is now a distant memory. He pops the second pitch harmlessly to Hrbek—swinging at a pitch well over his head. Lake grounds out to Lombardozzi. Then Coleman strikes out again. 56 words to celebrate Viola’s 56 pitches through five.
Commercials: Wait a second? You mean teens have been drinking illegally since the mid-80s?
Viola may be going, but the Twins really need a run to get back into the ball game. Dan Gladden disagrees. He starts the inning by taking three straight balls, then two straight strikes before becoming another victim of Ozzie Smith’s glove. Then a bad call goes the Twins’ way. Greg Gagne bounces a ball to the first baseman. Magrane tries to cover but apparently misses the bag, and Gagne is called safe at first. Replays however show however that Magrane’s foot clearly hit the base before Gagne’s. Whitey Herzog however doesn’t have a red challenge flag to throw on the field, or else this becomes a different game. Granted, who knows where this game is if Tom Kelly has the same flag on the Baylor play in the first? Herzog then reaches into the bullpen to bring out Game 5 starter Danny Cox on two days rest. Kirby Puckett greets him by sending his first pitch into the right-field gap for a double, scoring Gagne easily. Tie game. Gary Gaetti then works a walk. The Twins then run themselves out of yet another potential big inning. If Billy Beane had a grave, he’d be rolling over in it when Puckett got thrown out at third base on a passed ball that didn’t get nearly as far away from Lake than Puckett thought. Don Baylor proceeds to loop a ball into left field for a single. Gaetti, who advanced to second on the passed ball that got Puckett, tries to score. Coleman responds with another strike. Lake catches the ball, and Gaetti has no choice but to try and ram him. Lake holds, and though Danny Cox retires no batters at the plate, he somehow survives. It would seem this would be the kind of inning that seamheads should hold up to show the dangerous of aggressive play on the basepaths.
Commercials: Mister, we could use a man like Mr. Belvedere again….
I hate ESPN Classic with a passion. If for no other reason, this is the kind of inning that usually gets cut for them to fit a 3 hour game into a 2-hour time slot. So instead of getting the little nuances of the game, and the end result is you don’t get the whole impact of the game. If FOX Sports Midwest were smart, and really wanted to grab ratings from ESPN during off-seasons, they’d start re-running classic games of their own team. And to not cut any of the content out while doing it. If you’re sitting around the house on a Thursday night, and your choices are the World Series of Poker for the umpteenth time, or say a great game from 1986 where Kirby Puckett hits for the cycle and Bert Blyleven strikes out 15 A’s, which one would you choose? And it’s not like Fox doesn’t own the rights to the game if it exists on film (I’m not sure it does, but it’s a great hypothetical). The NFL channel, if it wanted to do the same, could show the many hours of great NFL games it has in it’s catalog. Would you turn in to see, say Moss’ first game in the NFL (another game I just dubbed to DVD)? Anyway, the inning starts out with Viola retiring Ozzie Smith to run it to 11 straight batters retired. But Tom Herr soon breaks it up with a clean single up the middle. And Jim Lindeman threatens to break things open by taking some blood out of Viola’s arm with an at-bat that included 7 pitches and 2 throws over to first. Then on the third throw over to first, Herr screws up and breaks for second. The Twins have him in a run-down, but Herr almost manages to get back. In fact he does get back, but is called out. And since Hrbek was in the baseline obstructing his path back to first, Herr probably should have been awarded second as well. Just another bad call in a game chocked full of them. On pitch 8, Lindeman skies one to Brunansky, and the Cardinals are gone—technically 1-2-3.
Commercials: Call me crazy, but $1295 in 1987 dollars for a Tandy doesn’t seem like a bargain to me.
To start the inning Brunansky draws a walk. Then Hrbek runs the count to 3-1 before drawing another walk. Danny Cox is in trouble. So the infield gathers together to buy Todd Worrell some time to warm up. Worrell comes in to pitch to Tim Laudner. On the second pitch in, Lake throws down to pick Brunansky off second. Ozzie Smith fakes like the ball has gone into center. Unlike the Knoblauch fake in the 7th game of the ’91 World Series, this one doesn’t work. Laudner fouls out to Lindeman. The Twins decide to pinch hit for Lombasrdozzi with Roy Smalley. Just for fun, Roy Smalley: Late 70s Twins what Matt Lawton: Late 90s Twins. Maybe they aren’t great players, but they’re very, very good ones. It’s good to see Smalley back with the team again when it’s on the verge of greatness. But I digress. Smalley walks to load the bases and is promptly lifted for Al Newman as a pinch runner. He receives a nice ovation as he leaves, probably not because the fans in the stadium had a sense of history, but because now the go-ahead run was on third. And Dan Gladden steps to the plate. Gladden has already hit one grand slam this series, and when he slams the first pitch the crowd erupts and lets out a groan when it twists foul. Worrell jumps ahead 1-2. Then Gladden fishes at another slider out of the zone for strike 3. And it looks like the Cardinals may get out of it. Then Greg Gagne laces one down the third base line. Tom Lawless makes the play and the throw, but it’s now where near on time. A better defensive third baseman may have gunned Gagne down to end the inning. But remember, Terry Pendleton was battling rib problems and didn’t play in the series. Puckett strikes out. But the damage has been done. The Twins lead 3-2.
Commercials: Gas prices may have tripled since 1987, but at least the McChicken is still 99 cents.
The inning opens as Willie McGee grounds to Greg Gagne. Tony Pena then steps to the plate. And he continues his hot streak by doubling off the wall in right, with Brunansky making a great barehanded play off the Baggie to make it close. Jose Oquendo then strikes out on a change-up, Viola throws a little fist-pump to show he knows how close he is. Tom Lawless steps up, his game four homerun looming large. Can he put the Cardinals up again. Tony Pena helps him out with an unlikely steal of third. Can you smell the blood in the water? Not really. The next pitch Lawless flies out to Puckett. Threat over.
Commercials: I just sent off $6 for my official 1987 World Series program. I wonder if it ever shows.
Gary Gaetti hits a routine fly ball to center. Willie McGee makes it look like a lot tougher play than it was by starting back and then coming in to make the play. Don Baylor steps in next, and hits an even more routine fly ball to right. Not to be outdone, Tom Brunansky steps to the dish, and proceeds to hit an even more routine fly ball to Tom Lawless. Call it the inning of the routine pop up.
Commercials: You really wonder how Bartle’s and James’ ever made commercial history given the way Ed had to carry the other old guy.
Lake grounds out Gaetti to Hrbek. Coleman flies out to Brunansky. Ozzie Smith grounds out Newman to Hrbek. And Viola’s night comes to an end after a gem of a game. His numbers on the evening: 8 innings pitched, 2 earned runs allowed, 6 hits allowed, no walks and 7 strikeouts all on 95 pitches. A truly great performance? No. But all totaled up it comes to an impressive game score of 69.
Commercials: I wonder if we were to tell people in 1987 that in 18 years Shick would offer them a four-blade razor to shave with instead of their innovative new twin blade one if they’d feel like cavemen or something.
It’s the bottom of the 8th, and the Twins could use one insurance run. If for no other reason in case you hadn’t noticed Reardon’s ERA was over 4 in 1987. Kent Hrbek comes to the plate, finally against a right handed pitcher in Todd Worrell. Not that it helps him out any, but he does has a long at-bat taking what’s left out of Worrell’s arm before grounding out to Tom Herr. Laudner starts the rally in the next at-bat, putting the ball between Smith and Lawless for a single. Just as quickly though, Al Newman fouls out, and the Twins are down to their final out in the inning. Fortunately, they don’t need another out to get the runner home. Dan Gladden slams a ball into the right field gap and Laudner chugs around the bases. A good throw nails him easily at the plate. But Tom Herr’s relay throw is off-line. The next batter Greg Gagne also rips one, but it’s right at Tom Herr who quickly tosses the ball over to Lindeman. The damage is done though. And Reardon has a 2-run lead to protect in the ninth instead of just a one-run lead.
Commercials: I think the quickest way for an aspiring screenwriter to get blackballed in Hollywood would be to write a script for a Head of the Class reunion. Saddaam may be evil, but his sins seem tame in comparison.
No surprise. Reardon takes the mound in the ninth. Tim McCarver babbles something about how the two-run lead hampers the Cardinals ability to run in the ninth. Hundreds of thousands of Twins fans hope that no one gets on base to prove him wrong. The first batter is Tom Herr, who works a full count before flying out to Puckett. One down, and the Metrodome crowd gets a little bit louder. Jim Lindeman is due up to the plate, but Herzog pinch hits Curt Ford instead. The Dome crowd softens as the count goes full. But erupts even louder when Ford pops one to Gaetti. Two out and Willie McGee is the Cardinals last shot. This time the count doesn’t go full. With two strikes McGee grounds one to Gaetti, who promptly tosses it over to Hrbek. The ensuing noise from the crowd is as loud as an atom bomb exploding on an erupting volcano. And it lasts for a good 5 minutes. Al Michaels, Tim McCarver and Jim Palmer say nothing. The noise of the crowd announces to the world that the Twins are the champions of baseball.
And that’s it. I wish I had the bandwith to put up the whole game up for you guys to watch. But those are the breaks. Hopefully you enjoyed this little baseball fix in January as much as I did.
But while there's over 200 football games in this collection, there are only two baseball games. The seventh game of the 1991 World Series. And the seventh game of the 1987 World Series. Last week I dubbed the '87 game to DVD, and it was great. Here it was, the middle of January, and I was sitting on my deck watching a baseball game. I enjoyed it so much I decided to write up every little detail of the game, so you guys could grab a baseball fix too.
Enjoy.
Pregame: It’s takes roughly five milliseconds for Al Michaels to mention how big the Twins home field advantage is. He also comments that the Cardinals starting line-up for the evening has hit 32 homeruns on the season. The same number Tom Brunansky hit in 1987. You really do have to wonder what would have happened if the Cardinals had a healthy Jack Clark for the Series. But that’s a OOTP What-If Question.
Commercials: It’s good to know that while graphical and special effect capabilities have expanded greatly in 18 years, the central theme of beer commercials remains the same.
Pregarme: Roy Campenela reminds us that many of baseball’s greats have never won a World Series title. One has to winder whether or not Johan Santana is going to fall in that trap.
Tom Kelly then mentions he spent the night before the game tossing and turning. On an unrelated note, has anyone ever noticed how quickly he aged with those Twins teams of the mid-90s?
Whitey Herzog then mentions then difference between the Twins on the road and the Twins at home. And how much better they hit there. One of Rob Neyer’s arguments against Kirby Puckett for the hall-of-fame in fact was that 140 point difference between his home and road OPSes, to show that Hank Blalock isn’t the only one who suffers from this disease.
Commercials: Has any actor lost more cool over the past two decades than Jon Cryer?
Peter Jennings mentions the stock market is up in Japan and that people were still trying to figure out what happened on Black Monday. Reagan is also feeling the pinch to cut spending and raise taxes. Also, Iraq beat Iran in a volleyball game. Played in Kuwait, who was then an ally of Iraq. My how times have changed.
The Jets then sing the National Anthem. My how times have changed. Given the showiness of baseball today, anyone less than Dylan or Prince singing it would’ve been Torry-hate crime had this game been played in 2006. I say vive la difference.
Commercials: Okay, maybe O.J. Simpson has lost more cool than Cryer.
Back to Al Michaels, who mentions the visiting team has won 17 out of the 30 seventh games in baseball history. Then to Tim McCarver, who mentions the Cardinals last seven World Series have gone to a seventh game. Then to Jim Palmer, who thankfully spares us his underwear poses.
Commercials: Chevy could never claim to be the Heartbeart of America these days. The Heartbeat of Central America, now that’s another story.
Howard Fox, Calvin Griffith and Carl Pohlad throw out the first pitch. The thing that strikes me about Pohald is that he actually looks like he’s in great shape in 1987. Then the Twins take the field St. Louis’ starting line-up:
Vince Coleman LF
Ozzie Smith SS
Tom Herr 2B
Jim Lindeman 1B
Willie McGee CF
Tony Pena DH
Jose Oqeundo, LF
Tom Lawless 3B
Steve Lake C
Note that not one player in this line-up ends up winds up with a career slugging percentage over .400. Which may just explain some of those line-ups Tom Kelly was trying to win with post-1993. Hey, if the Cards can do it…
Frank Viola takes the mound. Paul Molitor comes in to give the inside pitch, which is a rather mundane comment about him having a good change-up and being hard to steal off of. Then Vince Coleman steps up to the plate. Viola starts him off with a slow curve right on the outside corner for strike one. Pitch two is a high-inside fastball that’s probably a ball. But Coleman swings and fouls it off instead. Strike two. For pitch three, Viola stays high fastball. This time Coleman can’t catch-up. And the game starts with a three-pitch strikeout. Ozzie Smith steps into the box. Viola starts him out with two slow curves in the dirt. Then throws two fastballs high and over the plate. The second Smith sends a soft liner to the gap that Kirby Puckett runs down for an easy out. Seven pitches. Two down. Tom Herr takes two pitches outside the zone before grounding out to Gary Gaetti. Ten pitches. One strikeout. And two easy plays for two Gold Glovers. Does a first inning get any easy?
Commercial: Ah the IBM PC XT. It’s funny to think that a computer with 512K of memory was ever vital.
Now it’s the Twins turn at bat. The line-up?
Dan Gladden LF
Greg Gagne SS
Kirby Puckett CF
Gary Gaetti 3B
Don Baylor DH
Tom Brunansky RF
Kent Hrbek 1B
Tim Laudner C
Steve Lombardozzi 2B.
If the Cardinals have no power, the Twins have it to spare. Of course the Cardinals have the OBP and the speed thing going for them. It’s a battle between a dead-ball offense and a modern one.
Gladden illustrates the Twins’ OBP woes by immediately getting two strikes on himself. Joe Magrane, the Cardinal’s starter wastes a pitch. Then Gladden hits a ball hard down the line that Lindeman makes a great play on. Gagne follows suit, getting two strikes on himelf quickly. Then after fouling a pitch off, he chases a slider way out of the zone. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Puckett gets on with an infield hit that illustrates a central theme of this game. With Terry Pendleton out with a rib injury, Tom Lawless had to man third base for the Cardinals. Pendleton, a gold-glove third baseman with a strong arm easily throws Puckett out on that play. Lawless, with a much weaker throwing arm, makes it a close play (replays later show that Puckett was in fact out) and the call goes the Twins way. It doesn’t kill the Cards yet though. Gaetti rips one into the gap. But Jose Oquendo makes the play. The first inning ends scoreless.
Commercial: In hindsight, I guess the stock market crash of Black Monday wasn’t the start of the Second Great Depression.
In the first, the announces made a comment about the difference between Viola in Game One and the Viola in Game Four. The Game Four Viola left too many pitches up in the zone. And the Cardinals took advantage. In the first inning Viola got away with a few pitches up in the zone too. In the second inning, Viola wouldn’t be so lucky. Jim Lindeman takes the first pitch Viola throws, a high fastball, and bloops one into center for a hit. Viola then leaves a change-up high in the zone and Willie McGee rips one to left for another hit. And Viola starts to struggle. After putting one in the dirt, Viola hangs a curveball to Tony Pena. Which Pena promptly drills into the seats down the left field line, fortunately five feet foul. Five feet and you have a different ball game. The next pitch, a low fastball, Pena wraps up the middle giving St. Louis a 1-0 lead. Bert Blyleven quickly gets up in the pen. But Viola starts to calm down. Jose Oquendo pops up to Hrbek. Tom Lawless then pops one deep to centerfield, moving Willie McGee to third. Steve Lake then takes a first pitch change-up and lines it into left to drive in McGee. 2-0 Cardinals. But that’s it. Vince Coleman pops out to Greg Gagne and that’s the inning.
Commercial: If I ever get the chance to write a Wheaties commercial, I’m insisting they use the “Go Tell Your Momma What the Big Boys Eat” jingle. It’s definitely one of the top ten jingles ever written.
Don Baylor leads off the second and does what he does best. Gets hit by a pitch. A chart comes up telling us he’s only been hit by 110 other pitches between the years 1984 and 1987 so this isn’t the first time and that he had broken Ron Hunt’s career record for being hit. Tom Brunansky steps up and quickly takes ball one. He proceeds to knock the next fastball into left for a single. Hrbek follows Brunansky’s lead, taking two very close pitches. The bad calls start again though. Hrbek checks his swing on the next pitch, but third base umpire Don Sherry says he went. The replay shows pretty clearly Hrbek’s bat didn’t break the plate. But nonetheless, the bad call changes the complexion of the at-bat. Hrbek eventually strikes out on a pretty good pitch from Magrane. Tim Laudner then gets a chance to play hero, and almost does. He bounces a single between the shortstop and third baseman. Don Baylor breaks for home, and Vince Coleman’s throw beats him to the plate by a good margin. But Steve Lake misses the tag. Baylor is called out, and the bad calls continue (the one bright side being they seem to strike both teams). Two outs and Steve Lombardozzi steps to the plate and gets a high fastball he raps up the middle for a hit, scoring Tom Brunansky. Dan Gladden pops up to Tommy Herr in the next at-bat. But instead of a 2-2 game, the Twins had run themselves out of a potential big inning.
Commercial: Who could ever forget John Ritter as Hooperman? Millions I assume.
For the Twins to have a chance here, they need Frank Viola to settle down. And he does with a little help from his friends. Ozzie Smith chops a first pitch fastball, but Gary Gaetti goes up and gets it and shows one of the best arms to ever play third base in the process of gunning down the speedy Smith. Viola then gets ahead of Tommy Herr and strikes him out on a curve in the dirt. Then Viola gets up on Jim Lindeman 1-2 and gets him to chase a high fastball for strike three. It’s still 2-1 Cardinals, but if the mission is to get Frank Viola on a roll, then mission accomplished.
Commercials: A&E really needs to do a Spuds MacKenzie biography. The world needs to hear his full story.
Greg Gagne stirkes out. Puckett gets robbed of a homer. Gaetti gets on base because of an error on the first baseman and steals second, but Don Baylor strikes out. An economy of words to celebrate the first inning Joe Magrane gets by on an economy of pitches.
Commercials: What’s a bigger rip-off? Webster? Or Alex the Dog pitching Strohs Beer?
The Frank Viola Show continues. Willie McGee strikes out on four pitches, the last one being a fastball well out of the zone. Jim Palmer then makes a comment that Viola has yet to establish his change-up on the evening. But he doesn’t need to right now.Tony Pena chases a 93 mile-an-hour fastball that’s high and well out of the zone, and Viola has struck out four straight hitters. Jose Oquendo then breaks the chain by grounding the first pitch he sees to Gary Gaetti. 3 up. 3 down. Seven straight retired for Viola.
Commercials: I wonder if the guy who wrote the “Be All That You Can Be” jingle made more off the Army than the guy who invented the $15 bottle of ketchup.
The Twins still need a rally. But Tom Brunansky doesn’t help matters. He swings at the first pitch and lofts one to Vince Coleman. Then comes Kent Hrbek, and he does something completely out of character. He bunts. Joe Magrane seems stunned at first, but Hrbek was about as fast as a mail truck even in 1987 and is easily thrown out. Tim Laudner tries to start something with a walk. But then Steve Lombardozzi, the Twins leading hitter in post season hits a fly ball that Willie McGee handles easily. And that’s three away.
Commercials: Did it really ever only take 20,000 miles to get a free ticket on Northwest? 50,000 miles later I’m still waiting for my first.
The steamroller that is now Frank Viola continues to roll. Tom Lawless’ Game Four homerun off Viola is now a distant memory. He pops the second pitch harmlessly to Hrbek—swinging at a pitch well over his head. Lake grounds out to Lombardozzi. Then Coleman strikes out again. 56 words to celebrate Viola’s 56 pitches through five.
Commercials: Wait a second? You mean teens have been drinking illegally since the mid-80s?
Viola may be going, but the Twins really need a run to get back into the ball game. Dan Gladden disagrees. He starts the inning by taking three straight balls, then two straight strikes before becoming another victim of Ozzie Smith’s glove. Then a bad call goes the Twins’ way. Greg Gagne bounces a ball to the first baseman. Magrane tries to cover but apparently misses the bag, and Gagne is called safe at first. Replays however show however that Magrane’s foot clearly hit the base before Gagne’s. Whitey Herzog however doesn’t have a red challenge flag to throw on the field, or else this becomes a different game. Granted, who knows where this game is if Tom Kelly has the same flag on the Baylor play in the first? Herzog then reaches into the bullpen to bring out Game 5 starter Danny Cox on two days rest. Kirby Puckett greets him by sending his first pitch into the right-field gap for a double, scoring Gagne easily. Tie game. Gary Gaetti then works a walk. The Twins then run themselves out of yet another potential big inning. If Billy Beane had a grave, he’d be rolling over in it when Puckett got thrown out at third base on a passed ball that didn’t get nearly as far away from Lake than Puckett thought. Don Baylor proceeds to loop a ball into left field for a single. Gaetti, who advanced to second on the passed ball that got Puckett, tries to score. Coleman responds with another strike. Lake catches the ball, and Gaetti has no choice but to try and ram him. Lake holds, and though Danny Cox retires no batters at the plate, he somehow survives. It would seem this would be the kind of inning that seamheads should hold up to show the dangerous of aggressive play on the basepaths.
Commercials: Mister, we could use a man like Mr. Belvedere again….
I hate ESPN Classic with a passion. If for no other reason, this is the kind of inning that usually gets cut for them to fit a 3 hour game into a 2-hour time slot. So instead of getting the little nuances of the game, and the end result is you don’t get the whole impact of the game. If FOX Sports Midwest were smart, and really wanted to grab ratings from ESPN during off-seasons, they’d start re-running classic games of their own team. And to not cut any of the content out while doing it. If you’re sitting around the house on a Thursday night, and your choices are the World Series of Poker for the umpteenth time, or say a great game from 1986 where Kirby Puckett hits for the cycle and Bert Blyleven strikes out 15 A’s, which one would you choose? And it’s not like Fox doesn’t own the rights to the game if it exists on film (I’m not sure it does, but it’s a great hypothetical). The NFL channel, if it wanted to do the same, could show the many hours of great NFL games it has in it’s catalog. Would you turn in to see, say Moss’ first game in the NFL (another game I just dubbed to DVD)? Anyway, the inning starts out with Viola retiring Ozzie Smith to run it to 11 straight batters retired. But Tom Herr soon breaks it up with a clean single up the middle. And Jim Lindeman threatens to break things open by taking some blood out of Viola’s arm with an at-bat that included 7 pitches and 2 throws over to first. Then on the third throw over to first, Herr screws up and breaks for second. The Twins have him in a run-down, but Herr almost manages to get back. In fact he does get back, but is called out. And since Hrbek was in the baseline obstructing his path back to first, Herr probably should have been awarded second as well. Just another bad call in a game chocked full of them. On pitch 8, Lindeman skies one to Brunansky, and the Cardinals are gone—technically 1-2-3.
Commercials: Call me crazy, but $1295 in 1987 dollars for a Tandy doesn’t seem like a bargain to me.
To start the inning Brunansky draws a walk. Then Hrbek runs the count to 3-1 before drawing another walk. Danny Cox is in trouble. So the infield gathers together to buy Todd Worrell some time to warm up. Worrell comes in to pitch to Tim Laudner. On the second pitch in, Lake throws down to pick Brunansky off second. Ozzie Smith fakes like the ball has gone into center. Unlike the Knoblauch fake in the 7th game of the ’91 World Series, this one doesn’t work. Laudner fouls out to Lindeman. The Twins decide to pinch hit for Lombasrdozzi with Roy Smalley. Just for fun, Roy Smalley: Late 70s Twins what Matt Lawton: Late 90s Twins. Maybe they aren’t great players, but they’re very, very good ones. It’s good to see Smalley back with the team again when it’s on the verge of greatness. But I digress. Smalley walks to load the bases and is promptly lifted for Al Newman as a pinch runner. He receives a nice ovation as he leaves, probably not because the fans in the stadium had a sense of history, but because now the go-ahead run was on third. And Dan Gladden steps to the plate. Gladden has already hit one grand slam this series, and when he slams the first pitch the crowd erupts and lets out a groan when it twists foul. Worrell jumps ahead 1-2. Then Gladden fishes at another slider out of the zone for strike 3. And it looks like the Cardinals may get out of it. Then Greg Gagne laces one down the third base line. Tom Lawless makes the play and the throw, but it’s now where near on time. A better defensive third baseman may have gunned Gagne down to end the inning. But remember, Terry Pendleton was battling rib problems and didn’t play in the series. Puckett strikes out. But the damage has been done. The Twins lead 3-2.
Commercials: Gas prices may have tripled since 1987, but at least the McChicken is still 99 cents.
The inning opens as Willie McGee grounds to Greg Gagne. Tony Pena then steps to the plate. And he continues his hot streak by doubling off the wall in right, with Brunansky making a great barehanded play off the Baggie to make it close. Jose Oquendo then strikes out on a change-up, Viola throws a little fist-pump to show he knows how close he is. Tom Lawless steps up, his game four homerun looming large. Can he put the Cardinals up again. Tony Pena helps him out with an unlikely steal of third. Can you smell the blood in the water? Not really. The next pitch Lawless flies out to Puckett. Threat over.
Commercials: I just sent off $6 for my official 1987 World Series program. I wonder if it ever shows.
Gary Gaetti hits a routine fly ball to center. Willie McGee makes it look like a lot tougher play than it was by starting back and then coming in to make the play. Don Baylor steps in next, and hits an even more routine fly ball to right. Not to be outdone, Tom Brunansky steps to the dish, and proceeds to hit an even more routine fly ball to Tom Lawless. Call it the inning of the routine pop up.
Commercials: You really wonder how Bartle’s and James’ ever made commercial history given the way Ed had to carry the other old guy.
Lake grounds out Gaetti to Hrbek. Coleman flies out to Brunansky. Ozzie Smith grounds out Newman to Hrbek. And Viola’s night comes to an end after a gem of a game. His numbers on the evening: 8 innings pitched, 2 earned runs allowed, 6 hits allowed, no walks and 7 strikeouts all on 95 pitches. A truly great performance? No. But all totaled up it comes to an impressive game score of 69.
Commercials: I wonder if we were to tell people in 1987 that in 18 years Shick would offer them a four-blade razor to shave with instead of their innovative new twin blade one if they’d feel like cavemen or something.
It’s the bottom of the 8th, and the Twins could use one insurance run. If for no other reason in case you hadn’t noticed Reardon’s ERA was over 4 in 1987. Kent Hrbek comes to the plate, finally against a right handed pitcher in Todd Worrell. Not that it helps him out any, but he does has a long at-bat taking what’s left out of Worrell’s arm before grounding out to Tom Herr. Laudner starts the rally in the next at-bat, putting the ball between Smith and Lawless for a single. Just as quickly though, Al Newman fouls out, and the Twins are down to their final out in the inning. Fortunately, they don’t need another out to get the runner home. Dan Gladden slams a ball into the right field gap and Laudner chugs around the bases. A good throw nails him easily at the plate. But Tom Herr’s relay throw is off-line. The next batter Greg Gagne also rips one, but it’s right at Tom Herr who quickly tosses the ball over to Lindeman. The damage is done though. And Reardon has a 2-run lead to protect in the ninth instead of just a one-run lead.
Commercials: I think the quickest way for an aspiring screenwriter to get blackballed in Hollywood would be to write a script for a Head of the Class reunion. Saddaam may be evil, but his sins seem tame in comparison.
No surprise. Reardon takes the mound in the ninth. Tim McCarver babbles something about how the two-run lead hampers the Cardinals ability to run in the ninth. Hundreds of thousands of Twins fans hope that no one gets on base to prove him wrong. The first batter is Tom Herr, who works a full count before flying out to Puckett. One down, and the Metrodome crowd gets a little bit louder. Jim Lindeman is due up to the plate, but Herzog pinch hits Curt Ford instead. The Dome crowd softens as the count goes full. But erupts even louder when Ford pops one to Gaetti. Two out and Willie McGee is the Cardinals last shot. This time the count doesn’t go full. With two strikes McGee grounds one to Gaetti, who promptly tosses it over to Hrbek. The ensuing noise from the crowd is as loud as an atom bomb exploding on an erupting volcano. And it lasts for a good 5 minutes. Al Michaels, Tim McCarver and Jim Palmer say nothing. The noise of the crowd announces to the world that the Twins are the champions of baseball.
And that’s it. I wish I had the bandwith to put up the whole game up for you guys to watch. But those are the breaks. Hopefully you enjoyed this little baseball fix in January as much as I did.
Thursday, January 12, 2006
Top 50 Review: 1-10
Last month I published something of a top 50 prospect list. Which is all well and good. But a prospect list without any explanation of why these players. Because anyone can look at a stat line and put together a top prospect list. With that said, here's a review of the top of my top fifty list, with reasons instead of just names.
1. Francisco Liriano, lhp, age 22
+es: Explosive fastball. Knockout slider. Good pitchers body, completely obliverated Triple-A at a young age. Could be a true ace.
-es: To become a true ace, he needs a better off-speed pitch and a little better control. He's probably always going to hang a slider or two as well, which will make him homer-prone.
High ceiling: Sandy Koufax
More realistically: A skinnier C.C. Sabathia maybe? The next Eric Milton? Pick the O. Perez (Odalis or Oliver) of your choice? There's probably a half a dozen comps that work too.
Comments: There's no question he's the best prospect the Twins have. And he's clearly one of the ten best prospects in baseball right now. You just wish the Johan Santana comparisons would stop. It's not fair to Liriano. He's not there yet and may never be. The problem in Minnesota in September was that he was a two-pitch pitcher, who rode his slider a little too hard. It led to a lot of strikeouts, but when he messed up throwing it, the end result was a lot of homeruns too. In order to reach the next level, he needs a third pitch to throw big-league hitters off his trail more. The Twins seem to believe his change-up can be that third pitch. It might not be a bad idea to start him in Rochester to start 2006 to improve that pitch.
2. Anthony Swarzak, RHP, age 20
+es: Good fastball. Good Change-up. Good curveball. The potential for more velocity and four plus pitches in the future.
-es: There isn't one thing great about him yet.
High ceiling: Think John Smoltz
More reasonably: Think Kevin Millwood.
Comments: Originally Swarzak was placed in at about#5 on my list. I was worried I might be putting Swarzak a little too high. Then the more I thought about it, the more I came to the conclusion that was a little too low. Here's why. 1) Swarzak is as fairly safe a bet as any pitcher to stay in the starting rotation if he stays healthy. Unlike the Durbin/Harben/Garza crowd, he has three good pitches already. 2) Unlike the Baker/Perkins/Slowey crowd of pitchers, Swarzak is a little more electric in terms of stuff. His fastball has more velocity and his curveball is a lot sharper. Maybe I am rating him a little too high. But there isn't another pitcher in the system who combines pitchability and stuff. So I've got a good gut feeling. If there's a Twins' prospect who'll be in the top 10 in baseball in 2007, it's probably Swarzak.
3. Jason Kubel, RF, age 24
+es: Sweet swing. Good strike-zone judgement. Decent pop. Strong arm in right.
-es: Was slow before ripping out all the tendons in his knee. Missed all of 2005. Needs to hit left-handed pitching better.
High ceiling: Baseball America would have you believe Brian Giles...
More realistically: only because Rusty Greer comparisons don't sound all that great to anyone but maybe Phlegm and lonestar.
Comments: Surpisingly or not, the injury has very little to do with this ranking. I was a little scared that Kubel was starting to get overhyped in 2004. I don't see Kubel being a Giles-type difference maker in the middle of the line-up. For one thing, he doesn't have that kind of pop. For a second, he doesn't draw walks the way Giles does. For a third, Giles came up a centerfielder. Kubel can be a very good player in the majors though. The kind who hits .300 and 20 homeruns with an on-base percentage near .400 on a yearly basis though. And what's wrong with that?
4. Scott Baker, RHP, age 24
+es: Solid make-up. 4 decent pitches. Good control.
-es: Average fastball velocity and movement. No out pitch to speak of, his change-up coming the closest. Has a tendency to work too high in the strikezone.
High ceiling: Brad Radke
More Reasonably: Kyle Lohse
Comments: Too low? Too high? The case can be made for either. Baker pretty much has a rotation spot wrapped up for the next three years. And that's something. And he was pretty good in most of his starts in August and September. And that's something too. But at the same time, there was a certain level of Jon Garlandness or Joe Blantonosity to his success. He's a good prospect. He'll make a ton of money over the next decade. But my gut feeling is there's going to be a certain amount of dissapointment with him in the next couple of years.
5. Boof Bonser, RHP, age 24
+es: Great curveball, good offspeed stuff, knows how to pitch. Has led his league in strikeouts the last two seasons.
-es: Weight a concern. Control a little questionable. Pitches up in the strike zone a little too much.
High Ceiling: If he can get back into shape, Kevin Millwood.
More Reasonably: Sidney Ponson.
Comments: The clear successor to Matt LeCroy's Fat Kid title. He really needs to drop the weight he's put on the last couple of years. If he does that, Bonser could be an ace. If not, he'll never be more than a solid #3 pitcher/good #4 type.
6. J.D. Durbin, RHP, age 24.
+es: A fastball that's been clocked over 100 mph at times and sits in the mid-90s as a starter. A curveball that may be the best breaking pitch in the system.
-es: Very injury prone. Has a max-effort delivery that's often his undoing. Change-up has gone from bad to mediocre. Again, part of the problem there is his delivery makes it hard to be effective.
High ceiling: A.J. Burnett seems about right.
More reasonably: Tom Gordon. Octavio Dotel.
Comments: From the comments on the Top 50 list, from lambo, me thinks.
Just because Durbin can touch the upper 90's doesn't necessarily mean he'll ever have enough command to become anything more than a spot starter. The odds of Durbin becoming a dud is much more likely than Perkins becoming a capable MLB starter.
No. But because Durbin throws in the mid-to-upper 90s there's more of a chance for greatness. Be it in the rotation or the bullpen. He may never find a place in the rotation in Minnesota. In fact, with the violence in his deliver it might be better if he never does. He'll probably stay healthier in the pen (a la Aguilera) and he'll be able be able to rear back more and reach his peak velocities (a la Nathan). Sure there's a better chance Perkins stays in the rotation. But what's more valuable? A starter like Mark Redman? Or a high-end reliever?
7. Matt Moses, 3B, Age 21
+es: Compact swing. Good power. Has a reputation for being a yard rat.
-es: Poor defensive actions. Average arm at best. Coming off a half-season where he hit just .210 in Double-A.
High ceiling: Hank Blalock.
Low ceiling: TBD
Comments: This is the part of the list where things start to get tricky with this list. With Moses, it becomes hard to tell exactly where what's reasonable starts. It could be Blalock. His combination of sweet swing and bizarro Cuddyer defense (doesn't get to a lot of balls, but when he does he makes the play) is exactly what you get from Big Bank Hank. At the same point, it's hard to be completely certain where he'll end up position wise. He could head off to a corner outfield spot, in which case he may be anything from the next Kubel as far as prospects go to the next Mike Ryan. No matter what happens though, there are only one or two hitting prospects in the system who can match Moses' upside at the place regardless of position.
8. Trevor Plouffe, SS, age 20
+es: Fluid swing. Strong right arm. Good pop for a middle infielder.
-es: Average runner. Doesn't have one overwhleming tool.
High ceiling: Jay Bell/Khalil Greene/J.J. Hardy type.
More realistically: TBD
Comments: He won't be A-Rod. There's only a slight chance he'll be Jeter. But given the lack of good shortstops the Twins have had over the last 45 years, he has a chance to quickly become the best shortstop the team has had since Joe Cronin. His power numbers should take a big hit next year going from homer-friendly Beloit to not-so-homer-friendly Fort Myers. So don't get too disheartened if Plouffe doesn't reach double digits next year.
9. Adam Harben, RHP, age 22
+es: Big fastball, smooth delivery. Solid slider.
-es: Doesn't have that one great secondary pitch. Control very suspect.
High Ceiling: A.J. Burnett
More realistically: Matt Kinney
Comments: Harben's right arm is one of the most powerful in the system, and his heat rivals Durbin's and Liriano's for the best in the system. That said, unlike Liriano and Durbin, his breaking stuff is fairly average. He does have a smooth delivery though, so he's more likely than Durbin to stay in the rotation long term. But his lack of a great second pitch may start to show up when he hits Double-A next year.
10. Juan Portes, 2B-OF, age 20
+es: Very quick bat. Very good bat. Legit 5 tool guy. Hard worker both offensively and defensively.
-es: Defense not quite there yet. Too much of a free swinger.
High Ceiling: Bret Boone, pre-Twins
More realistically: TBD
Comments: After two very good seasons, we finally get to see what Portes is really made of this year in full-season ball. Usually, I prefer to keep players who haven't gotten past Elizabethton a lot lower on the list. With Portes, I've got a good gut feeling. And if you have a good gut feeling, why not go with it?
1. Francisco Liriano, lhp, age 22
+es: Explosive fastball. Knockout slider. Good pitchers body, completely obliverated Triple-A at a young age. Could be a true ace.
-es: To become a true ace, he needs a better off-speed pitch and a little better control. He's probably always going to hang a slider or two as well, which will make him homer-prone.
High ceiling: Sandy Koufax
More realistically: A skinnier C.C. Sabathia maybe? The next Eric Milton? Pick the O. Perez (Odalis or Oliver) of your choice? There's probably a half a dozen comps that work too.
Comments: There's no question he's the best prospect the Twins have. And he's clearly one of the ten best prospects in baseball right now. You just wish the Johan Santana comparisons would stop. It's not fair to Liriano. He's not there yet and may never be. The problem in Minnesota in September was that he was a two-pitch pitcher, who rode his slider a little too hard. It led to a lot of strikeouts, but when he messed up throwing it, the end result was a lot of homeruns too. In order to reach the next level, he needs a third pitch to throw big-league hitters off his trail more. The Twins seem to believe his change-up can be that third pitch. It might not be a bad idea to start him in Rochester to start 2006 to improve that pitch.
2. Anthony Swarzak, RHP, age 20
+es: Good fastball. Good Change-up. Good curveball. The potential for more velocity and four plus pitches in the future.
-es: There isn't one thing great about him yet.
High ceiling: Think John Smoltz
More reasonably: Think Kevin Millwood.
Comments: Originally Swarzak was placed in at about#5 on my list. I was worried I might be putting Swarzak a little too high. Then the more I thought about it, the more I came to the conclusion that was a little too low. Here's why. 1) Swarzak is as fairly safe a bet as any pitcher to stay in the starting rotation if he stays healthy. Unlike the Durbin/Harben/Garza crowd, he has three good pitches already. 2) Unlike the Baker/Perkins/Slowey crowd of pitchers, Swarzak is a little more electric in terms of stuff. His fastball has more velocity and his curveball is a lot sharper. Maybe I am rating him a little too high. But there isn't another pitcher in the system who combines pitchability and stuff. So I've got a good gut feeling. If there's a Twins' prospect who'll be in the top 10 in baseball in 2007, it's probably Swarzak.
3. Jason Kubel, RF, age 24
+es: Sweet swing. Good strike-zone judgement. Decent pop. Strong arm in right.
-es: Was slow before ripping out all the tendons in his knee. Missed all of 2005. Needs to hit left-handed pitching better.
High ceiling: Baseball America would have you believe Brian Giles...
More realistically: only because Rusty Greer comparisons don't sound all that great to anyone but maybe Phlegm and lonestar.
Comments: Surpisingly or not, the injury has very little to do with this ranking. I was a little scared that Kubel was starting to get overhyped in 2004. I don't see Kubel being a Giles-type difference maker in the middle of the line-up. For one thing, he doesn't have that kind of pop. For a second, he doesn't draw walks the way Giles does. For a third, Giles came up a centerfielder. Kubel can be a very good player in the majors though. The kind who hits .300 and 20 homeruns with an on-base percentage near .400 on a yearly basis though. And what's wrong with that?
4. Scott Baker, RHP, age 24
+es: Solid make-up. 4 decent pitches. Good control.
-es: Average fastball velocity and movement. No out pitch to speak of, his change-up coming the closest. Has a tendency to work too high in the strikezone.
High ceiling: Brad Radke
More Reasonably: Kyle Lohse
Comments: Too low? Too high? The case can be made for either. Baker pretty much has a rotation spot wrapped up for the next three years. And that's something. And he was pretty good in most of his starts in August and September. And that's something too. But at the same time, there was a certain level of Jon Garlandness or Joe Blantonosity to his success. He's a good prospect. He'll make a ton of money over the next decade. But my gut feeling is there's going to be a certain amount of dissapointment with him in the next couple of years.
5. Boof Bonser, RHP, age 24
+es: Great curveball, good offspeed stuff, knows how to pitch. Has led his league in strikeouts the last two seasons.
-es: Weight a concern. Control a little questionable. Pitches up in the strike zone a little too much.
High Ceiling: If he can get back into shape, Kevin Millwood.
More Reasonably: Sidney Ponson.
Comments: The clear successor to Matt LeCroy's Fat Kid title. He really needs to drop the weight he's put on the last couple of years. If he does that, Bonser could be an ace. If not, he'll never be more than a solid #3 pitcher/good #4 type.
6. J.D. Durbin, RHP, age 24.
+es: A fastball that's been clocked over 100 mph at times and sits in the mid-90s as a starter. A curveball that may be the best breaking pitch in the system.
-es: Very injury prone. Has a max-effort delivery that's often his undoing. Change-up has gone from bad to mediocre. Again, part of the problem there is his delivery makes it hard to be effective.
High ceiling: A.J. Burnett seems about right.
More reasonably: Tom Gordon. Octavio Dotel.
Comments: From the comments on the Top 50 list, from lambo, me thinks.
Just because Durbin can touch the upper 90's doesn't necessarily mean he'll ever have enough command to become anything more than a spot starter. The odds of Durbin becoming a dud is much more likely than Perkins becoming a capable MLB starter.
No. But because Durbin throws in the mid-to-upper 90s there's more of a chance for greatness. Be it in the rotation or the bullpen. He may never find a place in the rotation in Minnesota. In fact, with the violence in his deliver it might be better if he never does. He'll probably stay healthier in the pen (a la Aguilera) and he'll be able be able to rear back more and reach his peak velocities (a la Nathan). Sure there's a better chance Perkins stays in the rotation. But what's more valuable? A starter like Mark Redman? Or a high-end reliever?
7. Matt Moses, 3B, Age 21
+es: Compact swing. Good power. Has a reputation for being a yard rat.
-es: Poor defensive actions. Average arm at best. Coming off a half-season where he hit just .210 in Double-A.
High ceiling: Hank Blalock.
Low ceiling: TBD
Comments: This is the part of the list where things start to get tricky with this list. With Moses, it becomes hard to tell exactly where what's reasonable starts. It could be Blalock. His combination of sweet swing and bizarro Cuddyer defense (doesn't get to a lot of balls, but when he does he makes the play) is exactly what you get from Big Bank Hank. At the same point, it's hard to be completely certain where he'll end up position wise. He could head off to a corner outfield spot, in which case he may be anything from the next Kubel as far as prospects go to the next Mike Ryan. No matter what happens though, there are only one or two hitting prospects in the system who can match Moses' upside at the place regardless of position.
8. Trevor Plouffe, SS, age 20
+es: Fluid swing. Strong right arm. Good pop for a middle infielder.
-es: Average runner. Doesn't have one overwhleming tool.
High ceiling: Jay Bell/Khalil Greene/J.J. Hardy type.
More realistically: TBD
Comments: He won't be A-Rod. There's only a slight chance he'll be Jeter. But given the lack of good shortstops the Twins have had over the last 45 years, he has a chance to quickly become the best shortstop the team has had since Joe Cronin. His power numbers should take a big hit next year going from homer-friendly Beloit to not-so-homer-friendly Fort Myers. So don't get too disheartened if Plouffe doesn't reach double digits next year.
9. Adam Harben, RHP, age 22
+es: Big fastball, smooth delivery. Solid slider.
-es: Doesn't have that one great secondary pitch. Control very suspect.
High Ceiling: A.J. Burnett
More realistically: Matt Kinney
Comments: Harben's right arm is one of the most powerful in the system, and his heat rivals Durbin's and Liriano's for the best in the system. That said, unlike Liriano and Durbin, his breaking stuff is fairly average. He does have a smooth delivery though, so he's more likely than Durbin to stay in the rotation long term. But his lack of a great second pitch may start to show up when he hits Double-A next year.
10. Juan Portes, 2B-OF, age 20
+es: Very quick bat. Very good bat. Legit 5 tool guy. Hard worker both offensively and defensively.
-es: Defense not quite there yet. Too much of a free swinger.
High Ceiling: Bret Boone, pre-Twins
More realistically: TBD
Comments: After two very good seasons, we finally get to see what Portes is really made of this year in full-season ball. Usually, I prefer to keep players who haven't gotten past Elizabethton a lot lower on the list. With Portes, I've got a good gut feeling. And if you have a good gut feeling, why not go with it?
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
Sub-Batista
I've been used to seeing bad news when reading about rumors about the Twins this offseason. So it was about time there was something I had something to smile about. The Twins apparently are no longer interested in bringing back Corey Koskie, according to the Strib. And all I can say is thank god.
That's not meant to be a slight towards Corey Koskie, the human being. That's not meant to be a slight towards Corey Koskie, the third baseman that was a big part in the Twins' winning the AL Central championship from 2002-2004. That is, however, meant to be a slight to Corey Koskie, the player who's gone from 151 to 143 to 131 to 118 to 98 games played since 2001. That is meant to be a slight against the Corey Koskie who was accused of losing bat speed last season. And most importantly, that is meant to be a slight to the Corey Koskie who's owed $11 million dollars over the next two seasons to play baseball. With the possibility of adding another $6.25 million dollars to that if he simply makes 796 more plate apperances over the course of 2006 and 2007.
Simply put, taking on Koskie right now is risky business for any team right now. Given the Twins budget, however it's a game of Russian Roulette for them. The reports about Koskie losing bat speed should make him a "do not go after" for any team.
Like I said in the opening. Corey Koskie is a great guy. And if I had to pick a season as the greatest one a Twins' third baseman has ever had, I'd take Koskie's 2001 marks hands down. I have plenty of fond memories of Koskie playing third base. But then again, I also have many fond memories of Kirby Puckett playing center field. And there's no way in Hades I'd want him to play there in 2006.
When it comes to assembling a 2006 line-up, you have to think with your head. Not your heart.
That's not meant to be a slight towards Corey Koskie, the human being. That's not meant to be a slight towards Corey Koskie, the third baseman that was a big part in the Twins' winning the AL Central championship from 2002-2004. That is, however, meant to be a slight to Corey Koskie, the player who's gone from 151 to 143 to 131 to 118 to 98 games played since 2001. That is meant to be a slight against the Corey Koskie who was accused of losing bat speed last season. And most importantly, that is meant to be a slight to the Corey Koskie who's owed $11 million dollars over the next two seasons to play baseball. With the possibility of adding another $6.25 million dollars to that if he simply makes 796 more plate apperances over the course of 2006 and 2007.
Simply put, taking on Koskie right now is risky business for any team right now. Given the Twins budget, however it's a game of Russian Roulette for them. The reports about Koskie losing bat speed should make him a "do not go after" for any team.
Like I said in the opening. Corey Koskie is a great guy. And if I had to pick a season as the greatest one a Twins' third baseman has ever had, I'd take Koskie's 2001 marks hands down. I have plenty of fond memories of Koskie playing third base. But then again, I also have many fond memories of Kirby Puckett playing center field. And there's no way in Hades I'd want him to play there in 2006.
When it comes to assembling a 2006 line-up, you have to think with your head. Not your heart.
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
Open Forum
Happy New Year to everyone. Hope the return to, you know, work and stuff is going smooth. So what do you want to talk about?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)