The Twins made a roster move today, shipping off relief prospect Billy Bullock to Atlanta to secure the rights to Rule-V draft pick Scott Diamond. Immediately afterwards, Twins fans in cyberspace nearly blew up wondering how Twins GM Bill Smith could make such a horrible trade. I kind of have a problem with this, because it’s not like it’s set in stone that the Twins lose this deal.
Bullock was a perfect prospect. It would have been hard for him to succeed in the majors with a walk rate of more than 5 in the minors. Worse, his combined his walk problem with being fairly hittable in the minors, with a WHIP over 1.5 last year. That his WHIP has always been high throughout his career. But he also gave fans something very few pitching prospects in the Twins system can right now. Hope.
Diamond is far a safer bet. But Bullock has the kind of explosive upside that comes from having a fastball that flirts with triple digits. In a perfect world, Diamond may fill a role in the back of the rotation, or replace Dusty Hughes as the third lefty out of the bullpen. Bullock could well be the next Twins closer.
This is the kind of deal that makes you hate the fact you love the Twins. It makes you think that this whole talk of the team needing more velocity is nothing more than lip service. There was a point in time in the early part of the century where baseball analysts joked the Twins seemed like they were trying to put nothing but soft tossers on the mound. Then, the Twins started to make moves for more stuff heavy pitchers. A lot of them flamed out, like Matt Kinney and Adam Johnson. J.C. Romero and Juan Rincon filled bullpen spots. And then there was that Johan Santana guy, who simply won two Cy Young awards.
We now turn back to a Twins farm system with a lot of pitchers with great command, but not a lot of flame throwers. The problem is if you want to develop the next Johan Santana, you need to take risks with guys with top-of-the-rotation stuff. Something the Twins seem to be loath to do.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Twins Minor Leaguers Spark Comeback to Win Mayor's Cup
Would that have happened in a regular season game? Probably no. All the more reason to take Spring Training stats with a grain of salt.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Because projecting numbers is boring
Here’s a few stabs at who will improve and who will regress on the Twins in 2011:
Liriano: Stay the same
Pavano: Regress
Baker: Improve
Blackburn: Improve
Duensing: Regress
Slowey: Improve
Capps: Stay the same
Mijares: Regress
Perkins: Improve
Mauer: Improve
Morneau: Regress but play more games
Cuddyer: Improve
Kubel: Improve
Young: Regress
Thome: Regress
Casilla: Regress
Valencia: Regress in BA, Improve in SLG
Span: Improve
Butera: Be Buterrible
Tolbert: Change his name to rhyme with Colbert
That’s eight improves, seven regresses, two stay the sames and two bad jokes. Let’s see how my guesses play out.
Liriano: Stay the same
Pavano: Regress
Baker: Improve
Blackburn: Improve
Duensing: Regress
Slowey: Improve
Capps: Stay the same
Mijares: Regress
Perkins: Improve
Mauer: Improve
Morneau: Regress but play more games
Cuddyer: Improve
Kubel: Improve
Young: Regress
Thome: Regress
Casilla: Regress
Valencia: Regress in BA, Improve in SLG
Span: Improve
Butera: Be Buterrible
Tolbert: Change his name to rhyme with Colbert
That’s eight improves, seven regresses, two stay the sames and two bad jokes. Let’s see how my guesses play out.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Baker to Start, Slowey to the Pen
The biggest non-news story in Twins history? In an announcement that surprised literally no one, Ron Gardenhire announced Scott Baker would start the season as the Twins #5 starter and Kevin Slowey would start the season in the bullpen.
This isn’t bad news for Twins fans, since Baker is probably the better starter between the two of them. If you’re Kevin Slowey though, the end result should be keep your chin up. You’re a better starter than some of the people already in the rotation (Nick Blackburn, j'accuse). And sooner or later, one of them is going to blow apart and give you another chance to start.
This isn’t bad news for Twins fans, since Baker is probably the better starter between the two of them. If you’re Kevin Slowey though, the end result should be keep your chin up. You’re a better starter than some of the people already in the rotation (Nick Blackburn, j'accuse). And sooner or later, one of them is going to blow apart and give you another chance to start.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
The Ghost of Chad Allen
Back in 1999, the Twins roster was a little more unclear than it is today coming out of spring training. Left field was one of those positions that nobody knew how it would shake out. In camp, were a bunch of names that would soon become familiar--Jacque Jones, Torii Hunter-- and a few names that would soon be forgotten by more than the most die hards--Chris Latham. The Twins had spent the winter shedding salaries of expensive veterans like Pat Meares and Otis Nixon, and the feeling was that anyone could win just about any starting job. Anyone included an unheralded prospect.
Chad Allen was part of the championship team at New Britain that later became the core of the Twins championship teams in the early 2000. But as a corner outfielder who couldn't slug .400 there, he wasn't considered much of a prospect. There was a moment in spring training though when Chad Allen seemed like the second coming of Joe DiMaggio. The hits just kept dropping for him. In the end, Allen wound up setting a Twins record for hits in Spring Training and earning the starting left field job in the process.
One would hope this story would have a happy ending, but alas. Allen had a better season than most would think given his minor league track record. But he made a lot of blunders on the basepaths and in the field, all while posting a .725 OPS. In 2000, he started the season back in Salt Lake to work on things. He'd get another 250 plate appearances with the Twins over the next two seasons before heading to Cleveland.
Currently, Luke Hughes has become the current Spring Training flavor of March, hitting five homeruns so far. But it's important to remember Lou Brown's retort to Rube Baker's comment of "Willie sure does have a lot of power" in Major League 2. "Yeah, off a guy who'll be washing cars in two weeks." It's great that Hughes is putting up some numbers. But in the end, he's probably still the same Luke Hughes we've gotten to know over the last two seasons.
Chad Allen was part of the championship team at New Britain that later became the core of the Twins championship teams in the early 2000. But as a corner outfielder who couldn't slug .400 there, he wasn't considered much of a prospect. There was a moment in spring training though when Chad Allen seemed like the second coming of Joe DiMaggio. The hits just kept dropping for him. In the end, Allen wound up setting a Twins record for hits in Spring Training and earning the starting left field job in the process.
One would hope this story would have a happy ending, but alas. Allen had a better season than most would think given his minor league track record. But he made a lot of blunders on the basepaths and in the field, all while posting a .725 OPS. In 2000, he started the season back in Salt Lake to work on things. He'd get another 250 plate appearances with the Twins over the next two seasons before heading to Cleveland.
Currently, Luke Hughes has become the current Spring Training flavor of March, hitting five homeruns so far. But it's important to remember Lou Brown's retort to Rube Baker's comment of "Willie sure does have a lot of power" in Major League 2. "Yeah, off a guy who'll be washing cars in two weeks." It's great that Hughes is putting up some numbers. But in the end, he's probably still the same Luke Hughes we've gotten to know over the last two seasons.
Friday, March 18, 2011
The Start or Continuation of a Blackhole
There are nine positions on the baseball diamond. But for the last couple of decades, one has gone beyond difficult for the Twins to fill. Ever since Roy Smalley was traded to the Yankees round about the time I attended my first Twins game, shortstop has always seemed to be a problem for the team.
There have been highlights, for sure., for the simple reason that not every shortstop can be Houston Jimenez. Greg Gagne, at his best, had some good years on the strength of his excellent glove. But at the same time, most of the time he was bound to finish with an OBP under .300. Cristian Guzman was the only Twins shortstop to make an All-Star team since Smalley’s departure, and at one point in 2001 seemed primed to join the elite shortstops in the game. But he was never quite the same for the Twins after a shoulder injury that year, recovering briefly in Washington to have some decent years at the plate.
In recent years, the Twins run at shortstop has been tumultuous, but the management has never hesitated to move out. There hasn’t been much good, but there has been the solid (Jason Bartlett, J.J. Hardy), the alright (Nick Punto, Orlando Cabrera) and only the occasional disaster (Brendan Harris). But one can’t help but get the feeling that’s bound to change this year. Let’s take a closer look at this year’s shortstop contenders.
Behind door #1, you have Alexi Casilla—named the starter by Ron Gardenhire. He filled in at shortstop for Hardy some last year admirably. But at the same time, from the sabermetrical standpoint, he’s generally been a train wreck defensively at second base, and from the scouting standpoint, he doesn’t have the arm or intuition one likes to see from a shortstop. I’ll put the odds of him making more than 140 starts in 2011 at the position at 10:1.
Behind door #2, there’s Tsuoyoshi Nishioka—currently the team’s starter at second base. He’s the reigning batting champion in Japanese Pacific League, seems to have a nice quick swing and should in theory be a decent offensive producer. But at the same time, he seems to be more comfortable at second base and has less of an arm than Casilla. That makes it questionable how long-term a solution he’d be at shortstop.
Behind door #3, there’s Trevor Plouffe, former first round draft choice and current starting shortstop at Rochester. He has the prototypical shortstop arm to complement a little pop at the plate. But he’s a free-swinger who won’t draw many walks or really hit for average. He’s also a little error prone, which we all know is the quickest way into Ron Gardenhire’s dog house.
Outside of that, the Twins next great shortstop is ??? The minor league system looks about the same as it always does at the position. John Sickles doesn’t list a single shortstop in his top-22 Twins prospects, with Plouffe and a few others making the honorable mention position. One of whom, Twins 2010 pick Niko Goodrum, seemingly making the list because he’s Twins second round pick Niko Goodrum.
How do you solve this problem? Me, I’m not quite sure anymore.
There have been highlights, for sure., for the simple reason that not every shortstop can be Houston Jimenez. Greg Gagne, at his best, had some good years on the strength of his excellent glove. But at the same time, most of the time he was bound to finish with an OBP under .300. Cristian Guzman was the only Twins shortstop to make an All-Star team since Smalley’s departure, and at one point in 2001 seemed primed to join the elite shortstops in the game. But he was never quite the same for the Twins after a shoulder injury that year, recovering briefly in Washington to have some decent years at the plate.
In recent years, the Twins run at shortstop has been tumultuous, but the management has never hesitated to move out. There hasn’t been much good, but there has been the solid (Jason Bartlett, J.J. Hardy), the alright (Nick Punto, Orlando Cabrera) and only the occasional disaster (Brendan Harris). But one can’t help but get the feeling that’s bound to change this year. Let’s take a closer look at this year’s shortstop contenders.
Behind door #1, you have Alexi Casilla—named the starter by Ron Gardenhire. He filled in at shortstop for Hardy some last year admirably. But at the same time, from the sabermetrical standpoint, he’s generally been a train wreck defensively at second base, and from the scouting standpoint, he doesn’t have the arm or intuition one likes to see from a shortstop. I’ll put the odds of him making more than 140 starts in 2011 at the position at 10:1.
Behind door #2, there’s Tsuoyoshi Nishioka—currently the team’s starter at second base. He’s the reigning batting champion in Japanese Pacific League, seems to have a nice quick swing and should in theory be a decent offensive producer. But at the same time, he seems to be more comfortable at second base and has less of an arm than Casilla. That makes it questionable how long-term a solution he’d be at shortstop.
Behind door #3, there’s Trevor Plouffe, former first round draft choice and current starting shortstop at Rochester. He has the prototypical shortstop arm to complement a little pop at the plate. But he’s a free-swinger who won’t draw many walks or really hit for average. He’s also a little error prone, which we all know is the quickest way into Ron Gardenhire’s dog house.
Outside of that, the Twins next great shortstop is ??? The minor league system looks about the same as it always does at the position. John Sickles doesn’t list a single shortstop in his top-22 Twins prospects, with Plouffe and a few others making the honorable mention position. One of whom, Twins 2010 pick Niko Goodrum, seemingly making the list because he’s Twins second round pick Niko Goodrum.
How do you solve this problem? Me, I’m not quite sure anymore.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
The Collapsing Carl Pavano Theory
The Twins had something of a disappointing offseason. It wasn’t a complete disaster, like their 2006 offseason that set the die for Tony Bastita and Rondell White to nearly kill the team’s offense for two months. But it was far from a great one. And one of the key problems were the expectations that Carl Pavano and Jim Thome will produce at the same levels they did in 2010. Pavano, in particular, was a bad idea because it now ties up a rotation spot that would better be used for someone cheaper like Kevin Slowey. The Twins heeded these two contracts in a P.R. spin as bringing back fan favorites Carl Pavano and Jim Thome, proof of what a mustache can do for a fellow’s self-esteem.
As Twins, we simply need to admit two things.
1. Carl Pavano’s mustache simply isn’t cool. That’s not saying mustaches aren’t cool. That’s saying Carl Pavano’s mustache is less Magnum P.I. and more “Did you order a pizza with extra sausage, little girl?” Vintage Blyleven is a great mustache. Rollie Fingers is a Hall of Fame mustache. Pavano’s stache is weak.
2. Pavano’s 2010 season isn’t very repeatable. His K/9 rate collapsed throughout the year. His stuff declined. His command remained strong, as it always has been when he’s healthy. He’s a 35-year-old pitcher, older than Brad Radke was when he retired. How well do you think this one ends?
A better question. What usually happens to a pitcher with a lower K-rate than Nick Blackburn and without the propensity to get double play balls and the pitch to keep balls in the park? My gut feeling is of all the Twins offseason moves, giving Pavano a two-year deal is the one they regret the most.
As Twins, we simply need to admit two things.
1. Carl Pavano’s mustache simply isn’t cool. That’s not saying mustaches aren’t cool. That’s saying Carl Pavano’s mustache is less Magnum P.I. and more “Did you order a pizza with extra sausage, little girl?” Vintage Blyleven is a great mustache. Rollie Fingers is a Hall of Fame mustache. Pavano’s stache is weak.
2. Pavano’s 2010 season isn’t very repeatable. His K/9 rate collapsed throughout the year. His stuff declined. His command remained strong, as it always has been when he’s healthy. He’s a 35-year-old pitcher, older than Brad Radke was when he retired. How well do you think this one ends?
A better question. What usually happens to a pitcher with a lower K-rate than Nick Blackburn and without the propensity to get double play balls and the pitch to keep balls in the park? My gut feeling is of all the Twins offseason moves, giving Pavano a two-year deal is the one they regret the most.
Monday, March 14, 2011
The Ace-ness of Francisco Liriano
“Ned Flanders: Is God punishing me?
Reverend Lovejoy: Short answer yes with an if, long answer no with a but.”
Francisco Liriano and his apparent value has been a hot topic among Twins fans this offseason, mostly because of reports that the Twins may or may not be shopping him. There are many fans out there who feel Liriano is one of the elite pitchers in baseball. And many Twins fans who simply trust Carl Pavano more as a pitcher, who haven’t quite forgiven the triple he gave up to Curtis Granderson to surrender the lead in game 1 of the ALDS.
The truth is more middle in, my hunch tells me. Is Liriano elite? Probably not. The argument is that Liriano was one of baseball’s most unlucky starters in 2010. That his ERA should drop as his BABIP normalizes, leading to numbers that are among the best in baseball. Which is true, to an extent. But it doesn’t take into account that Liriano was one of the more lucky pitchers in baseball when it came to avoiding homeruns. His 0.4 HR/9 rate simply won’t last. Liriano’s rate was higher than that in 2006. His BABIP may well normalize, but the net result is it will be counteracted to a degree by a regression in his homerun rate.
But then again, the notion that a healthy Liriano is anything but the Twins best pitcher is a fairly ridiculous notion. He’s not Cliff Lee. He’s probably not C.C. Sabathia. But the Twins chances of getting past the first round in 2011 hinge on Liriano being something near the same pitcher he was in 2010.
Reverend Lovejoy: Short answer yes with an if, long answer no with a but.”
Francisco Liriano and his apparent value has been a hot topic among Twins fans this offseason, mostly because of reports that the Twins may or may not be shopping him. There are many fans out there who feel Liriano is one of the elite pitchers in baseball. And many Twins fans who simply trust Carl Pavano more as a pitcher, who haven’t quite forgiven the triple he gave up to Curtis Granderson to surrender the lead in game 1 of the ALDS.
The truth is more middle in, my hunch tells me. Is Liriano elite? Probably not. The argument is that Liriano was one of baseball’s most unlucky starters in 2010. That his ERA should drop as his BABIP normalizes, leading to numbers that are among the best in baseball. Which is true, to an extent. But it doesn’t take into account that Liriano was one of the more lucky pitchers in baseball when it came to avoiding homeruns. His 0.4 HR/9 rate simply won’t last. Liriano’s rate was higher than that in 2006. His BABIP may well normalize, but the net result is it will be counteracted to a degree by a regression in his homerun rate.
But then again, the notion that a healthy Liriano is anything but the Twins best pitcher is a fairly ridiculous notion. He’s not Cliff Lee. He’s probably not C.C. Sabathia. But the Twins chances of getting past the first round in 2011 hinge on Liriano being something near the same pitcher he was in 2010.
Wednesday, March 09, 2011
The Time to Trade is Not Now
I’ve never been the biggest Scott Baker fan.
I’ve never been the biggest Kevin Slowey fan.
I never thought I’d have to be the guardian for either one. But here it goes.
Trading either one right now is a major, major mistake.
Somewhere along the road, the once darlings of the Twins system got passed up by Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn. Liriano, I get, simply because Liriano, to loosely quote Sesame Street, is the one thing that’s not like the other. The other five? Not quite.
90-91 mile per hour fastball. Check, check, check, check, check.
Good to great command of it? Check, check, check, check, check.
Three average pitches, none of which are horrible, but none of which are great? Check, check, check, check, check.
A tendency to get hit hard when they have to pitch in the strike zone? Check, check, check, check, check.
Sure, Duensing throws left handed and Blackburn has that super, awesome sinker that doesn’t really force soft grounders. But in the end, you’ve got five pitchers who are almost dead equals competing for four spots. With the one probably most likely to breakdown being the one penciled in at the #2 starter spot (Pavano), simply because 35-year-old pitchers with declining K rates are always really big risks.
Slowey looks like the odd man out of the rotation right now, and I really can’t disagree too much with that. He also doesn’t profile as your normal great reliever. But he’s a good enough pitcher to mop-up games, get you out of jams in the 7th inning and so forth in April and May. And by then, who knows what will be going on in the rotation? Anyone after Liriano could be the #2 this year. Or completely blow up.
I’ve never been the biggest Kevin Slowey fan.
I never thought I’d have to be the guardian for either one. But here it goes.
Trading either one right now is a major, major mistake.
Somewhere along the road, the once darlings of the Twins system got passed up by Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn. Liriano, I get, simply because Liriano, to loosely quote Sesame Street, is the one thing that’s not like the other. The other five? Not quite.
90-91 mile per hour fastball. Check, check, check, check, check.
Good to great command of it? Check, check, check, check, check.
Three average pitches, none of which are horrible, but none of which are great? Check, check, check, check, check.
A tendency to get hit hard when they have to pitch in the strike zone? Check, check, check, check, check.
Sure, Duensing throws left handed and Blackburn has that super, awesome sinker that doesn’t really force soft grounders. But in the end, you’ve got five pitchers who are almost dead equals competing for four spots. With the one probably most likely to breakdown being the one penciled in at the #2 starter spot (Pavano), simply because 35-year-old pitchers with declining K rates are always really big risks.
Slowey looks like the odd man out of the rotation right now, and I really can’t disagree too much with that. He also doesn’t profile as your normal great reliever. But he’s a good enough pitcher to mop-up games, get you out of jams in the 7th inning and so forth in April and May. And by then, who knows what will be going on in the rotation? Anyone after Liriano could be the #2 this year. Or completely blow up.
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
Do You Believe in Alexi Casilla?
Because I'm having a problem buying into him. At least not as a starting major league shortstop, as on Gardenhire plans for 2011. Sure, I believe he can post a reespectable .27-something/.33-something/.37-something line as a hitter. But are we really headed into the 2011 season with a shortstop who's spent most of his career as a questionable fielding second baseman?
Am I wrong to have doubts?
Am I wrong to have doubts?
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