Feeling a Draft

This weekend, football geeks have their annual wet dream—the NFL Player Draft. Us baseball geeks have to wait another month to have our wet dream. But why let the football geeks have all the fun in speculating what their team is going to do?

Unfortunately, we have to wait until June 6th to see who the Twins take with the 20th overall pick, But it’s not too early to start speculating who that pick will be.

• University of Minnesota LHP John Gaub might have been the pick. But he hasn’t really been healthy so far this spring, logging only 16.1 innings so far for the Gophers staff. He has an electric left arm, touching 95 mph with his fastball when healthy. But more questions are starting to pop up as to whether he’ll be able to hold up as a starter. I’d still figure the Twins wind up picking him up at some point in the draft. It just won’t be in the first round.

• It has been 10 years since the Twins last took a college position player in the first round. That may change this year. Two college third basemen might be of some interest to the Twins when their pick comes around—Wes Hodges from Georgia Tech and Matt Antonelli from Wake Forest. Hodges is one of the better college hitters available in the draft, and should hit for power and average in the pros. He hit .309 while using a wood bat for Team USA last summer, so there shouldn’t be much of an adjustment. Antonelli isn’t the hitter that Hodges is, but he’s a much better athlete and has more likely to be a defensive asset at the position. Antonelli also is known for his great strike zone judgement, and has done a good job answering the one lingering question about his lack of power by hitting 11 homeruns so far this season. His stock is definitely on the rise.

• As far as high school hitting prospects, it’s hard to tell how things are shaking out. Most of the prep player are struggling, and it’s hard to tell who would be there when the Twins pick and who wouldn’t. Chris Marrero is the exception to this, but then again his combination of power and potential to be a Gold Glove third baseman should have him well off the board by the time the Twins pick. That leaves a couple of OF/1B in Cody Johnson and Chris Parmalee. The knock on both of them is that they’re more likely to be first basemen than outfielders. And you really have to be able to hit to be a first base prospect. Both of them can, but they have their knocks too. Parmalee has a picture-perfect left hand stroke, but it’s a level swing and you have to question how many homers he’ll hit. Johnson is Parmalee’s evil twin. Nobody hits the ball farther than Johnson in the 2006 draft, He’s also the kind of hitter who will strike out a ton, and he may not be able to hit for much of an average.

• If there is a position of weakness in the Twins farm system its at catcher. There are catchers to be had in the first round. But all of them carry the question mark as to whether or not they’re catchers or “catchers.” Max Sapp and Hank Conger are catchers. But then again, so were Justin Morneau, Paul Konerko and Carlos Delgado once, Like the aforementioned three, Sapp’s best position is in the batter’s box, where he hits tape measure shots with a quick swing. Sapp has a plus arm, but his movements behind the plate aren’t what they should be. The same can be said about Conger. Chad Tracy, son of current Pirates manager, is the best college hitter. He knows the strike zone, has a nice little batting stroke to him and moves well behind the plate. He doesn’t have a plus throwing arm however, and that may lead to a move to another position. Another catcher, Brian Jeroloman, on the other thing is everything you can want in a catcher defensively. Too bad he’s hitting under the college Mendozza line right now at the University of Florida. Jeroloman is considered more of a second or third round pick though.

• The Twins motto over the last couple of years has been when in doubt, grab a college pitcher. And given that college pitching is the strength of this year’s draft, it may well work out that way again. The only two college pitchers guaranteed to not be there when the Twins draft is UNC LHP Andrew Miller and Cal flamethrower Branden Morrow. After that, it’s a real crap shoot. Washington right hander Tim Linceum has an amazing fastball which might get him drafted early. But then again his 6 foot frame may scare teams off too. Ian Kennedy and Max Scherer have talent. But both are represented by Scott Boras. Joba Chamberlin has been Nebraska’s ace the last couple of years and has good stuff. But he has also fought injuries this year. Daniel Bard was once thought to be in the mix to go first overall because of his build and stuff. But now he’s sliding to the point where he may even be available that late because he’s been inconsistent. Brad Lincoln? Kyle McCullough? Greg Reynolds? There are plenty of talented college pitchers out there. The question is who will be available?