A response to an old friend

From 2001 to present, lonestar and I have posted on the ESPN Twins Board. Sometimes agreeing. Sometimes disagreeing. The fundamental difference between the two of us is that where he’s trying to be the next Rob Neyer, I’d rather be the next David Rawnsley. Yesterday he posted this article on the future of the Twins. Now, I counter with where I see him to be a tad bit off

Joe Vavra: While not lonestar’s point, I don’t see how you can’t like this choice for hitting coach. Yeah, he didn’t have the pro career that Molitor or Carew had. But to counter that, Ted Williams was one of the greatest hitters ever. But it never translated as a coach (although Ted Williams’ The Science of Hitting is required reading in the Red Sox system and should be in the Twins’ as well). At the same time Molitor and Carew have both flopped horribly as hitting coaches with Seattle and Milwaukee respectively. Is it really smart to hire people who have flopped elsewhere?

On top of which, Varva does bring an outside opinion to the organization. If you look at it from a statistical standpoint the current crop of Twins hitting prospects breaking into the majors, they never had any problem hitting in the minors. Their problems only started when they got to the majors. To isolate it to three problems, check out how LeCroy, Restovich and Cuddyer’s plate discipline rotted out once they got to Minnesota. Not only at the major league level, but when they made subsequent returns to the minors. It should have been a screaming beacon that something was rotten in Denmark. And by Denmark, I mean 34 Kirby Puckett Place. Ullger should have been shitcanned the moment he told Restovich to “swing the bat like a man.” But at the same time, IMO, Tom Kelly had too much control over how the team was run even after he retired. If you watch Dragon: the Bruce Lee Story, the reoccurring theme is if you don’t conquer your own demons, they’ll be passed down to your children. And if you consider that David McCarty begat Rich Becker who begat Todd Walker who begat David Ortiz who begat Michael Cuddyer who begat Justin Morneau, that principle is clearly illustrated in this organization.

Kelly’s biggest problem was that he lusted after a line-up of nine Kirby Pucketts. Which is fine if you have nine players with Kirby Puckett’s talents. But different players have different gifts. You couldn’t get Harmon Killebrew to hit like Kirby Puckett if you tried. But at the same time, Killebrew is just as valuable a hitter as Puckett. If not more. A good boss would have seen the Killebrew in Restovich and LeCroy, and tried to maxmize it. Not force them into something there not. And this is the fundemental flaw that has kept the Twins from having a 30-homerun hitter since Kelly’s first year as manager. Given that the team has since been taken over by Kelly’s boys in Gardenhire and Ullger, the problem has continued to manifest.

That not to say Vavra can’t or won’t be the status quo. But then again if any chance of the Twins having an offensive turn-around next year starts with Cuddyer and Morneau unlearning some of the things they’ve learned at the at the major league level. And who better to do that than their old minor league coach?

Jason Kubel: I think lonestar tried to make too much out of this point. It’s a lot simpler than that. If Kubel’s swing is there in April, he and Ford will platoon in right field. If not, Kubel starts in Rochester and Ford is the starting right fielder in Minnesota. It’s that simple.

Michael Cuddyer: There’s no way in Hades that he winds in right field, because he’s already flopped there once. There’s no way he winds up as a super-utility player either, because for the team to be successful next year Cuddyer needs to be successful nect year. The two options are clear. The Twins either find a second baseman in the offseason, and Cuddyer stays at third. Or the Twins find a third baseman and Cuddyer shifts to second, much to Carlos Silva’s dismay. They won’t look for both.

Torii Hunter: Whether or not he’ll be traded depends on what ‘s offered for him. And in reality, it doesn’t matter. If the Yankees come up with a blow-away offer for Hunter, he’s replaceable by players the Twins on the roster right now. If not, it’s not like the money the team saved was going to bring in Konerko anyway. More than likely, it would go to resigning Jacque Jones if Hunter goes. Given more than likely the team is going to replace two of their more ground ball oriented starting pitchers with more fly-ball oriented ones, I lean towards keeping Hunter though. Though I’d like to see him muzzled for the good of the team.

Kyle Lohse: Like Hunter, whether or not he’s traded is such a non-issue it’s not even funny. If the Twins keep him, it’s fine. He’s their Jeff Suppan in the back of the rotation and Liriano cuts his teeth in long relief for a bit and gets a little further along the injury nexus. If they don’t, they’ll get something in return but nothing overtly valuable. Teams don’t drool over Jeff Suppans or Mark Redmans when they’re up for trade.

Pitching Prospects: The biggest mistake the Twins made last year was placing too much value on some of their young pitchers, and not enough on others. Bonser could be the next Freddy Garcia. More than likely he’ll be the next Sid Ponson. But you can attribute the same flaws to Baker and Liriano too. If Baker doesn’t improve any, he could well be just the next Kyle Lohse instead of the next Radke. There’s a certain layer of Eric Milton to Liriano, as well as the potential Santana comp (which does put him above the other two). If Baker is going to net you more than Bonser in trade, it’s not that bad of an idea to trade Baker instead of Bonser.

Terry Mulholland: The Twins resign him, but to a minor league deal like they did last year. If he keeps pitching effectively, he stays. If he gets old fast, he goes.

DH: IMO, cutting Matt LeCroy is a sign from the front office that they know they need to find a real one. I tend to think it’s a sign they’re going to try to do something more permanent then go for Durazo, or else they would have reupped with Matty because he and Durazo would make a great platoon.

The reality is the team has three options:

1. They look for the next Chili Davis, meaning they target a veteran who had a down year in 2005 who could bounce back in 2006. Durazo fits into this category. So does a Mike Piazza or Sammy Sosa. Trading for Thome also fits into this category. Durazo is probably the least likely to have suffered from a case of the olds in 2005.
2. They look for the next David Ortiz, meaning a player in his mid-20s who’s arbritration eligible and not likely to be brought back by his current team, but has some shiny glitter left of being a highly-regarded prospect in a past life. With Dmitri Young getting enough plate appearances to ensure his options and Chris Shelton the Tigers aren’t likely to need Carlos Pena anymore. The Dodgers aren’t likely to go to arbritration with Hee Seop Choi. Willy Mo Pena and Austin Kearns are both arbrtration eligible in Cincinatti, and keeping four expensive outfielders isn’t a great idea. The point being, there will be young players out there for cheap who haven’t hit yet, but who might as soon as next year.
3. They look for the next Travis Hafner, which entails finding a prospect that’s not super-regarded by their current organization and trade for him. I’ve already done a long blog on this subject on the old Twins Territory blogs, and won’t get into it here.

There's no one way of going about this. And anyone who's targeting one player as a sign of a successful offseason has a serious flaw in his or her strategy.

Optimism:The offseason is now only two days old. Anything is still possible for next year. I prefer to save my negativity for when the team does make a bad move. I’ll start complaining about it then, instead of worrying about it now.