Draft in review

Moms have Mother’s Day. Father’s, um, Father’s Day. Russians have May Day and copious amounts of vodka to get them through the other 364 days. Die hard baseball fans are lucky, albeit not as lucky as the Russians. They have two days sometime in June. Draft Days.

Today is the day when 18 potential All-Stars hopefully enter your system. Today is the day when you start your own dynasty to rival the Yankees. Yeah, I know, I’m overselling the promise of 18-21 year old kids a bit too much. But for an organization like the Twins, you can’t put enough emphasis on how important the draft is.

So that said, how did the Twins do today? My Magic 8 ball says “Outlook Hazy.”

It’s not often where your first round pick is among the most boring picks you make. But the Twins may have actually done that today. In fact, with the Twins draft today the most interesting observation you can make is that they seemed to desperately trying to find the next Torii Hunter.

This started in round 2, when the Twins took Illinois high schooler (from the same high school as Notre Dame great Daniel “Rudy: Ruetteger, for those keeping score at home) Joe Benson. To compound the issue, the Twins took a very similar player in the 10th round in Jared Mitchell. Both have every tool you could want in a baseball player. Mitchell is already fairly close to an elite defensive center fielder, and Benson is no slouch. Both spent considerable time on the football field in high school. And both are rawer than Paris Hilton’s vagina after a weekend in Vegas. If that sounds to you like an accurate description of Torii Hunter circa 1993 to 2000, that’s because it is. Benson even throws in the Hunter-esq trait of swinging at anything. Does that mean they’ll evolve into Torii Hunter now? Maybe. But then again most tool goofs usually flop. Benson should be a relatively easy sign for second round money. Mitchell, a football recruit for LSU, may be a bit more difficult. But if the Twins really want to sign him they can spread out his bonus money over five years because of his gridiron ties.

The Twins also reached for another toolsy outfielder in the 5th round in the form of Devin Shepherd. No hitter in the draft may have more raw power than Shepherd, who has won several homerun contests at the amateur level. But when it comes to using said power during the game, he’s a lot like one of 2006’s worst movies—Failure to Launch. Shepherd swings at too many bad pitches, and has no clue how use the entire field which probably will stop him from hitting for average, but all of his other tools are average or better.

Benson, Shepherd and Mitchell are all very high risk. But at the same time they have all the tools to succeed given the right adjustments. That said, when was the last time the Twins were successful at making adjustments with hitters?

Rounding out the Twins’ risky picks is third rounder Tyler Robertson, who’s mechanics actually make Adam Johnson’s delivery look pretty. If handled right, Robertson could turn into a pretty good pitching prospect. If handled wrong, he becomes another Alex Merricks. We’ll find out which one he is in about two years.

So that makes big gambles in rounds 2, 3, and 5. How do you counter-balance that? By playing it relatively safe the rest of the way.

In the fourth round, the Twins maybe made their best moves of the draft in grabbing Whit Robbins and Garrett Olson. Robbins led Georgia Tech in most offensive categories this year, and has walked more than he’s struck out. Plus he might have the arm and actions to handle third base or the speed to play left field. Olson played for a small college, but the only tool he’s lacking is speed. He has average pop, but good bat speed and a great arm. At the very least they’ll be solid organizational soldiers. And it’s not impossible to wish cast Robbins into Aubrey Huff or Olson into Bill Mueller. Granted, that’s the best case scenario for each.

Jonathan Waltenbury has a very pretty swing with some loft to it. He’s a pretty safe bet to hit early, but given his reputation as a defensive butcher, he’ll have to keep hitting.

Jeff Christy can’t hit, but you don’t have to hit if you’re a great defensive catcher. His best case scenario is probably Junior Ortiz, which would make him the second best Jeff Christy to play the “c” position in Minnesota sports history.

Like Christy, Steve Singleton is sensational in the field. He even hit .363 this year. The question is will that translate to wood.

No Twins’ draft choice put up better numbers than Brian Dinkleman—the NAIA player of the year. The question becomes how well that translates against better competition.

Aaron Land pitched well in the Cape Cod League, and not so well at Kansas this year. His velocity was down and his control was shaky. But if he can bump his fastball back to 90 mph, he has a chance of being a nice little back-half of the rotation starter.

Mark Dolenc is a burner who plays a mean centerfield. He’s also a slap hitter who’s power may or may not be usable. Being a Minnesota boy, he’ll probably get lots of chances.

Aaron Senne, Jeff Manship, and Andy Oliver probably won’t sign unless some of the higher ups don’t sign. Manship has all the makings of being a solid back-half of the rotation starter. Senne has a pretty swing, but he’s probably a first baseman without much power. Oliver is the best of the bunch with a low-nineties fastball and may be a first round pick in 2009 if he goes to Oklahoma State.

Kevin Harrington was one of the top prep quarterbacks on the West Coast, but a broken arm slowed him down on the football field. He’s a first-rate athlete. The question is does he want to play football or baseball.

Shayne Willson is the kind of player you usually try to go the Draft-and-Follow route with. He’s committed to play at Iowa Western JC next year. Chris Anderson doesn’t have another year left at the JC level, and if he signs he has solid average stuff.

That brings us to first round pick Chris Parmalee. Most of the smart picks, like Billy Rowell, Travis Snider and Matt Antonelli were off the board when the Twins picked. Parmalee was the safest pick left on the board. He’ll probably have no problem hitting for average with his lightening-quick bat. Parmalee also has a nifty little arm. The questions are how much power will he hit for, and is he fast enough to handle a corner outfield spot. I tend to find the argument that Parmalee can handle left field about as believable as Ken Lay’s defense. Parmalee is offensive lineman slow, and that will probably limit him to first base. Which leads to the question how much power is he going to hit for. 30 homeruns, and you might have the next Todd Helton. 20, and you’ve got the next Lyle Overbay. Less than that, and you can hear the wind murmur “Mientkiewicz.” Overbay was the most common comp pre-draft.

We all hope there’s 18 future all-stars on this draft list. That’s not realistic though. If you land one in a draft, you had a good day. The Twins may have well landed one in this draft. The problem is, it could be one of any six people.