Last weekend, it was my birthday. Plus a good friend of mine got married. Also last weekend, the Twins swept the Cubs. Needless to say, the Twins playoff hopes are in much better shape than my liver. But that’s not saying much now is it?
How good of shape are the playoff hopes? It really depends on whom you’re listening to.
If you’re a Baseball Prospectus nut, and lord knows there are a lot of good reasons to be a Baseball Prospectus nut, you can’t be too optimistic right now. According to BP’s Postseason Odds, the Twins have a 1.47% chance of making it to the playoffs. The Anaheim Angels, currently 7 games below .500, have a 5.2% chance of making it. But then again, they aren’t 11 games back like the Twins are either. That said, with apologies to those of you who dream of flipping Torii Hunter into Brandon Wood, the Twins have a much better chance of making the playoffs. BP would also tell you that the Angels have played better than the Twins so far, And there is a certain truth to that. But it doesn’t take into consideration that this is a Twins team that has cut ties to its weakest links in the last two weeks.
Yes, the Baseball Prospectus numbers are important. But here are some equally important ones.
14. The number of games the Twins have remaining against the roadkill that is the Kansas City Royals.
13. The number of times Detroit and Chicago play each other still this season.
12. The number of games the Twins have remaining against the White Sox.
10. The number of games the Twins have remaining against the Tigers.
It should be noted the Tigers and White Sox have 10 games left against the Royals. At the same time though, the Twins also have 7 games left against the Devil Rays. The point is rather simple. If the Twins want to make the playoffs, they have to kick a couple of teams while they’re down, and beat up on the two teams directly blocking their playoff approach. Is that saying that will be easy? Not in the least. The White Sox and Tigers are both really good teams. Especially the, gulp, Tigers—who have a pair of young pitchers in Verlander and Bonderman who may rival Santana and Liriano. But at the same time, if the Twins can win out against the Tigers that 11 game lead they have on us becomes a one-game lead. That’s not likely, but if the Twins can find a way to go say 7-3 against the Tigers, that 11-game lead becomes a 7-game lead, which is a lot more manageable when you consider how many more easy games the Twins have left. And catching the White Sox is probably easier, since the Twins have more games left against them and a lot less ground to make up.
I’m not sure I buy that the Twins’ playoff chances are one in a hundred. One in twenty I can buy. Maybe even one in twenty-five. There are only two things I’m sure of for sure. One, we’ll know if the Twins are buyers or sellers sometime around July 30th, when they finish a series in Detroit. And two, about that same time we’ll know about how good the new line-up really is.
7 comments:
That sounds like the wishful thinking that is likely going through Ryan's head. Admittedly the Twins are not the same team that struggled through June 7, but it seems to disregard the fact that the Twins have won 15 out of 17 (88.2%) and only gained 2 games on the Sox. If the Twins outplay the Sox by the same rate for the rest of the season, they win the wild card by 1 game.
Let us say the odds are 20:1. Would not a prudent man be actively shopping who he is going to shop. Now we don't know that Ryan isn't doing that, but there is no evidence to the contrary.
We know one thing about the lineup already. 3B, DH and apparently 2B inhale. What is Ryan doing about improving the team -- this year's or next -- besides playing people he should have been playing all year. In the off-season, he admitted the need to upgrade 2B, 3B and DH and when his experiments didn't work, he waits for Stewart and plugs in the guy who he benched in favor of Castro.
What would it take to obtain:
o Craig Wilson
o Russell Branyan
o Ryan Church
What do you think?
What moves are you thinking of making if you are a buyer? When?
How about a column on Torii?
How critical is Torii Hunter to the Twins' current success? Admittedly he plays between the statuesque Cuddyer and Kubel.
What is the Torii Hunter market relly look like?
Under what circumstances would/should they:
o trade Torii?
o pick up his option?
o buy him out?
o sign him to an extension?
What kind of draft choice compensation would they get if they buy him out?
Where do you draw the line on July 30?
Will Ryan recognize that he is a buyer or seller? He didn't last year.
but it seems to disregard the fact that the Twins have won 15 out of 17 (88.2%) and only gained 2 games on the Sox. If the Twins outplay the Sox by the same rate for the rest of the season, they win the wild card by 1 game.
Given the number of games the Twins have remaining against the White Sox (and Tigers) it won't play out that way, either the Twins will beat up on them and suddenly we're buyers or they'll beat up or play even ball with us and we're sellers.
If the Twins are on a six-game winning streak after July 30th, their playoff hopes are very much alive.
What would it take to obtain:
o Craig Wilson
o Russell Branyan
o Ryan Church
I'm not 100% sure, but let's say for arguements sake it's
Wilson for Scott Baker
Branyan for Jose Mijares
Church for J.D. Durbin
Which ones do you do and not do?
What do you think?
What moves are you thinking of making if you are a buyer? When?
If you're a buyer, you're looking for a veteran third baseman in the Bill Mueller mold who gets on base and plays great defense. Stewart is your DH and Hunter is your centerfielder.
If you're a seller, Stewart is a goner and Hunter is too if you get a great offer. You're looking for a young third baseman and a young DH who can go Cuddyer or Morneau offensively next year. McPherson makes some sense. I still like the thought of Willy Aybar. Ryan Shealy? Joe Koshansky? The Rockies have a lot of first baseman blocked by Helton.
Where do you draw the line on July 30?
If you're within five or six games of the White Sox then, you're a buyer. If you're still 9 back, it's time to sell.
Will Ryan recognize that he is a buyer or seller?
Well, he does seem to be listening to Battle Your Tail Off.
Sorry, I was a little overwrought. Thanx for your thoughtful response.
Let's see. The Twins don't have a 3B, DH, or LHB threat off the bench. Ford is sucking against LHP's as well as RHP's. Cuddyer may be better defensively at 3B and Kubel may be better defensively at DH.
Mijares for Branyan is a slam dunk. Then the Twins can move Punto to 2B and shop Castillo for a bag of batting practice balls.
I like Durbin almost as much as you, but I'm concerned about his K/9 and you know the Twins are. I'm afraid he will turn into the next Alexi Casilla. Isn't he out of options next year? Isn't Bonser? With the unlikelihood of beating out both Baker and Bonser for #5 SP and the sentiment to keep Nathan, Rincon, Crain, the Bonser/Baker loser, and at least one LHP, he will be competing with Minnesota native Pat Neshek for the last spot in the pen. I am curious as to why the Twins have not replaced Lohse and Eyre with Neshek and Durbin. I'm guessing it is so they can retain their prospect luster in AAA.
As you say, the Twins should not be afraid to cash in pitching prospects. I'm guessing Church will play 100 Rate2 defense in CF (and surpass Hunter in OBP and OPS). He allows the Twins to trade Torii and send LEW to Rochester in the meantime.
I would not trade Baker for Wilson because Wilson is a summer rental and I like Baker more than you. I might trade Slowey for Wilson (since Slowey is two years behind Baker).
So who are the teams looking at a CF of Hunter's caliber? I figure Yankees, White Sox, Astros, Angels, and Red Sox (based on Pena's wrist injury and Crisp's bad year). I don't see a match with Houston. Hughes would work, but the Yankees will likely pursue pitching instead. I would trade Hunter for Josh Fields tonight and I think the ChiSox would to weaken the Twins this year. The Angels and BoSox have a lot to offer if they would.
What do you think? What would you do?
Ryan will opt for none of the above and pick up Torii's option next year. And Castillo's option will vest. And the small budget Twins will have no wiggle room.
I like Durbin almost as much as you, but I'm concerned about his K/9
I'm assuming you mean BB/9, considering it's way too high. I don't think I do Durbin for Church though. Church is a little too Lew Ford-esq for me. Great fourth outfielder, but not enough D to be a centerfielder and not enough pop to be a right fielder.
For the record, I still think Lew is fine as a fourth outfielder.
What do you think? What would you do?
I think in a wet dream you move Hunter to the White Sox for Fields and Brian Anderson. Then you wake up, and realize it would probably be a one or the other proposition. And if it is Fields, you have to remember there is a risk involved (His strikeout rate in AAA is way too high for comfort). Is that worth putting a big hole in center field for?
To me, it comes down to which team is going to bid two solid upside pieces in the third base/DH/CF/2B area. All of them have them too, except maybe the BoSox. If the Astros offer say Hunter Pence and Chris Burke, you have to listen. Ditto if the Angels offer Morales or Kotchman and McPherson.
The problem with trading Hunter now, is that the team can compete. If not in '06 then in '07. You need to set the price high on him for that reason, and because he will be harder to replace than most of his critics think.
The problem with trading Hunter now, is that the team can compete. If not in '06 then in '07.
I agree. That's why I think Terry Ryan will pick up his option. I would want to explore my options.
You need to set the price high on him for that reason, and because he will be harder to replace than most of his critics think.
Yes and No. It will be hard to replace Torii's Gold Glove (tm) defense and LHP-mashing ability in the same person. It would not be nearly so hard to surpass his offense somewhere else on the diamond, more or less replace his defense in CF, get 7 years younger, save $millions.
To me, it comes down to which team is going to bid two solid upside pieces in the 3B/DH/CF/2B area.
As I indicated, I'm not so demanding. Also, there are other ways to go about it. Like getting a pitcher (allowing Ryan to trade pitching) or an OF allowing you to move Cuddyer to 3B or Kubel to DH.
I don't see even Kenny Williams giving up Fields and Anderson for Hunter. But what if he offers one and McCarthy or Broadway.
I missed Fields' K/AB, but he has great BA and good BB/AB (and IsoP). He's still raw -- that is, his K/AB might improve.
I would think Burke is untouchable in Houston or targeted for greater needs. I would do Hunter for Burke in a heartbeat (and I have seen Burke's home/away splits).
How about Pedroia and Pena? How about Pedroia, Murphy, Ellsbury, and Seibel?
By the way, I liked your idea of Baker for LaRoche? Do you think the Dodgers would go for it? How about Bonser or Silva instead?
Yes and No. It will be hard to replace Torii's Gold Glove (tm) defense and LHP-mashing ability in the same person. It would not be nearly so hard to surpass his offense somewhere else on the diamond, more or less replace his defense in CF, get 7 years younger, save $millions.
No arguement that the team can get more offense from centerfield than Hunter provides. My question though is that with Santana, Radke, Bonser, Baker, Perkins, Garza, Slowey and Swarzak all being moderate to extreme flyball pitchers, how important is that Gold Glove ®defense?
I don't see even Kenny Williams giving up Fields and Anderson for Hunter. But what if he offers one and McCarthy or Broadway.
My guess would be Fields and Anderson would happen well before Fields and McCarthy or Fields and Broadway. Hunter would make Anderson a redundancy.
More likely though, the offer would be say Fields and Jerry Owens.
How about Pedroia and Pena? How about Pedroia, Murphy, Ellsbury, and Seibel?
I'm not a fan. But then I'm not a fan of low-leverage prospects. Pedoria seems to me to be to middle infield prospects what Slowey and Baker are to pitching prospects. Sure, they're safe bets. But is some being a 'safe bet" to be the next Tony Graffanino really all that safe?
I'd like to get some hitters with more of an upside if we're going to trade Hunter.
I liked your idea of Baker for LaRoche? Do you think the Dodgers would go for
If I had to guess, no. More likely when the Dodgers start shipping off their wall of third base prospects, they're going to do it to fill holes with proven commodites. In real life, if the Twins wanted LaRoche badly it would probably cost Nathan.
But in terms of the game, Aybar for Baker was too extreme, and asking for more in return for Baker is the best way to get them to lower the tag on Aybar.
In real life if the Twins need a third base prospect, the Dodgers are they're best bet though. Crain for Aybar may not be a bad idea.
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